SvennoJ said:
I don't know how they get to those 45 days. It looks like Italy is stabilizing, growth factor for the last 4 days is 1.01x, pretty much flat, yet still 3,500 new cases daily. So it looks like Italy reached its peak in new daily cases 15 days after passing 1,000 cases total. (Which seems to be the point where governments go into full distancing measures) Of course the total active cases will continue to grow for another 2 weeks at least. |
It's probably because they're thinking moderate social distancing will be enough, instead of a full lockown. Otherwise it would take just a few weeks + lingering cases as some people continue to get infected from domestic undetected cases and the asymptomatic.
I hope Italy is sensible and starts lifting the lockdown in each province as they go, say, 18 - 21 days without new cases. At least some parts of the country can continue functioning like in China, else the recession would be... well, really bad.
