SvennoJ said:
JRPGfan said:
Yeah france is going full on china mode, now.
They have people running around spraying and disinfecting everything too.
Denmark is also telling everyone to stay home unless its "needed" to head out (ei. food/medicine that sort of thing).
Also theres hand sanitiser before entering to super markets, and marked lines you need to stay at in cues when you go shopping.
Its scary if this really is just the start of the spread.
If peaks wont be hit for another 45 days.... damn.
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I don't know how they get to those 45 days. It looks like Italy is stabilizing, growth factor for the last 4 days is 1.01x, pretty much flat, yet still 3,500 new cases daily. So it looks like Italy reached its peak in new daily cases 15 days after passing 1,000 cases total. (Which seems to be the point where governments go into full distancing measures) Of course the total active cases will continue to grow for another 2 weeks at least./
In China the daily new cases (first) peaked on Feb 4 (3,800 new cases that day), while the active case load peaked on Feb 17. The data is a bit messy for China though since they had a huge backlog on testing. On Feb 4, China had 23K active cases, taking March 15th for the growth peak in Italy, 21K cases. China peaked at 58K active cases on Feb 17, Italy won't be far behind that number. It's all pretty similar so far. Anyway with the limited data available, Italy's active case load will probably peak around March 28th at around 52K, 29 days after passing the 1,000 total cases.
Of course if the new cases go up again in the next few days in Italy, all the math changes again.
And the grim realization is that when you get the growth rate under control, your active case load is still set to increase by 2.5x. And in China, still 6x more people died after Februari 4th (first growth peak) than up to Februari 4th. Math is not friendly here because if that copies over, almost 12K more deaths can happen in Italy :(
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