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Forums - General Discussion - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

I've been hearing about the problem of not having enough ventilators for a while, now.

That... seems like a thing to address? I mean, I don't know the business of producing ventilators. Perhaps they are exclusively handcrafted by Nepalese monks from adolescent unicorn's horns. Perhaps. But in the lead-up to the crushing spikes we're all anticipating (especially since folks are still crowding open restaurants, beaches, bars, theme parks, etc.), perhaps we can put in an order or two. Seems to me that since we've had this whole "industrial revolution" thing, we know a thing or two about mass production. So why not get to producing?

(And I'm certain it's not that easy, for any number of reasons, but at the same time: we turned car factories into tank factories, when we needed to.)



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Deaths / Total detected cases varies wildly per country

Italy 7.7%
Iran 5.7%
China 4.0%
UK 3.6%
Spain 3.4%
France 2.2%
USA 2.0%
Netherlands 1.7%
South Korea 1.0%
Switzerland 0.8%
Germany 0.2%

Germany seems best at detecting cases and/or keeping people alive so far. The timing is also different of course. China is hardly detecting new cases anymore but still has 3200 serious/critical cases marker. Italy is still climbing fast with now 3 times the active cases as are left in China. You would think Germany and the UK are not far different in timing yet a totally different ratio.

Very hard to say anything about how many cases there really are.



donathos said:
I've been hearing about the problem of not having enough ventilators for a while, now.

That... seems like a thing to address? I mean, I don't know the business of producing ventilators. Perhaps they are exclusively handcrafted by Nepalese monks from adolescent unicorn's horns. Perhaps. But in the lead-up to the crushing spikes we're all anticipating (especially since folks are still crowding open restaurants, beaches, bars, theme parks, etc.), perhaps we can put in an order or two. Seems to me that since we've had this whole "industrial revolution" thing, we know a thing or two about mass production. So why not get to producing?

(And I'm certain it's not that easy, for any number of reasons, but at the same time: we turned car factories into tank factories, when we needed to.)

First of all, it's not that easy to ramp up production for such an item short-term. I think they already do, but it is a complicated medicinal utility, which isn't produced that far. I think this production is ramped up as far as possible, but don't expect miracles.

But that is also only half the problem. The ventilators are often used only as an indication of general intensive care resources. If a patient needs a ventilator, he also needs a bed and a space in a hospital. Also some other machines that monitor life signs and similar, medication, desinfection and so on.

But most importantly you need skilled personell to operate these things and care for the patients. And this especially don't grow on trees. It is no surprise that hotspot areas cancelled vacations for health personell, lifted overtime limitations and pulled back people from retirement.

This is especially bad in countries that praised themself for 'optimized' health care and similar statements. Because that means they did away with excess capacity. That means excess capacity for normal times. The more excess capacity exists, the easier the additional patients can be cared for.



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SvennoJ said:

Deaths / Total detected cases varies wildly per country

Italy 7.7%
Iran 5.7%
China 4.0%
UK 3.6%
Spain 3.4%
France 2.2%
USA 2.0%
Netherlands 1.7%
South Korea 1.0%
Switzerland 0.8%
Germany 0.2%

Germany seems best at detecting cases and/or keeping people alive so far. The timing is also different of course. China is hardly detecting new cases anymore but still has 3200 serious/critical cases marker. Italy is still climbing fast with now 3 times the active cases as are left in China. You would think Germany and the UK are not far different in timing yet a totally different ratio.

Very hard to say anything about how many cases there really are.

The Dutch number will rise, as we’ve changed the testing method. People with only mild complaints and family members of a known infected person won’t get tested anymore. They’re just assumed to ‘have it’ and will have to self-isolate. This means only stronger cases will get confirmed and published, the people with a higher risk of dying.

Simultaneously though the RIVM estimated that about 6,000 people here now “carry” the virus to some extend. 24 deaths out of 6,000 is of course very low. Though I assume this is true for every country because this would include everyone not (yet) tested.

As a side note they confirmed that the youngest to die here in Holland was 63, the oldest 94, and the average is 79. As far as I know there’s only one teen in ICU as of now, a 16 year old boy.

EDIT: Youngest death ended up being 63 instead of 59.

Last edited by S.Peelman - on 17 March 2020

haxxiy said:

I think the emerging consensus is that the concern is not exactly "how lethal this is to me" but "how lethal this is to the healthcare system". Nowadays, we have 35 times more people over 60 and 65 times more people over 80 compared to the Spanish Flu, but ICU beds tend to operate at optimal capacities in most places and would be filled already by a flu season that is worse than average.

That's not the emerging consensus. That's the actual problem and the reason we're taking the necessary countermeasures.

SvennoJ said:

Deaths / Total detected cases varies wildly per country

Italy 7.7%
Iran 5.7%
China 4.0%
UK 3.6%
Spain 3.4%
France 2.2%
USA 2.0%
Netherlands 1.7%
South Korea 1.0%
Switzerland 0.8%
Germany 0.2%

Germany seems best at detecting cases and/or keeping people alive so far.

I seriously doubt it. That probably has more to do with how different countries classify their deaths. This virus is especially lethal to those with already serious medical conditions and old people. Whether you classify a death as due to the covid-19 or due to these other pre-existing medial conditions makes a huge impact in the final data. Incidentally, this has been a big point in the debate here in Italy for the last few days: many people are saying that not only most other countries were simply late and inefficient at detecting their cases, but are also faking the death toll. With that said, it's still true that Italy has a higher number of old citizens, so we're especially worried about their health.



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SvennoJ said:

Deaths / Total detected cases varies wildly per country

Italy 7.7%
Iran 5.7%
China 4.0%
UK 3.6%
Spain 3.4%
France 2.2%
USA 2.0%
Netherlands 1.7%
South Korea 1.0%
Switzerland 0.8%
Germany 0.2%

Germany seems best at detecting cases and/or keeping people alive so far. The timing is also different of course. China is hardly detecting new cases anymore but still has 3200 serious/critical cases marker. Italy is still climbing fast with now 3 times the active cases as are left in China. You would think Germany and the UK are not far different in timing yet a totally different ratio.

Very hard to say anything about how many cases there really are.

As far as I heard is germany not testing dead people, that weren't confirmed as infected before. So some unclear deaths through pneumonia might actually be COVID-19 related. But how much that would influence the picture is unclear.



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SvennoJ said:

Deaths / Total detected cases varies wildly per country

Italy 7.7%
Iran 5.7%
China 4.0%
UK 3.6%
Spain 3.4%
France 2.2%
USA 2.0%
Netherlands 1.7%
South Korea 1.0%
Switzerland 0.8%
Denmark 0.4%
Germany 0.2%

Germany seems best at detecting cases and/or keeping people alive so far. The timing is also different of course. China is hardly detecting new cases anymore but still has 3200 serious/critical cases marker. Italy is still climbing fast with now 3 times the active cases as are left in China. You would think Germany and the UK are not far different in timing yet a totally different ratio.

Very hard to say anything about how many cases there really are.

Guess part of it, is how well your healthcare system works?

I heard a explaination for italy high number is:
1) they are currently overwhelmed.... too many sick people. Without enough supplies/beds/doc+nurses things go bad.
2) higher % of older people (one of the highest in the world)
3) its common for 2-3 generations of a family to live in the same house.  So the young get it, and infect the elderly to a higher degree.



Lafiel said:
haxxiy said:
A study from the Columbia University estimate 86% of cases are asymptomatic, but they are driving two thirds of the new infections.

I think the emerging consensus is that the concern is not exactly "how lethal this is to me" but "how lethal this is to the healthcare system". Nowadays, we have 35 times more people over 60 and 65 times more people over 80 compared to the Spanish Flu, but ICU beds tend to operate at optimal capacities in most places and would be filled already by a flu season that is worse than average.

the lethal 2nd wave in the 1918 H1N1 pandemic (which we should avoid calling the "Spanish Flu") afaik mainly killed people in their 20s-40s as it often caused a cytokine storm that is much more drastic in people with good immunesystems (and it is hypothised, that older ppl may have had some immunity from a 1889 pandemic), leading to 92% of it's victims apparently being below the age of 65 - todays older population might have been more resistant to it even without all the possibilities of modern medicine

I know. And nearly a hundred years later, the 2009 H1N1 strain had some of the same characteristics to a lesser degree. But they are the exceptions, not the rule. That is only one virus of all the respiratory pandemics we've seen. Nowadays, the average random person, except for the malnourished, has a far more fragile immune system than ever before.



 

 

 

 

 

So there are now, as of this writing, 4,564 confirmed active cases of the coronavirus here in the United States today; an increase of about a thousand since this same time yesterday morning. 93 Americans have now died from it, compared to just 74 who have recovered. The daily rate of both contraction and death is continuing to accelerate.

Also, the U.S. stock market had its worst day yesterday since 1987, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunging a record 2,997 points, equating to a loss of 12.9% of its total worth in just one day. The U.S. stock markets have now erased nearly all their gains since Donald Trump took office more than three years ago. A growing body of investment banks and economists are now predicting not just another recession (that much is obvious at this point), but a full-blown economic depression.

Also, HAPPY ST. PATRICK'S DAY!! Do ya feel lucky? (You have to admit, all this does seem kinda like "the luck of the Irish".)



In Brazil, from now on, they're going to test only hospitalized persons too (which until now had been 7% of cases, with 0.8% in ICU units).