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Forums - Sales Discussion - Will Mario Kart 8 (Wii U + NS) outsell Mario Kart Wii?

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Will Mario Kart 8 outsell Mario Kart Wii?

Yes, Switch version by itself will do it 25 39.06%
Yes, but only if you comb... 31 48.44%
No 8 12.50%

It really depends on when MK9 releases. But combined I'd say yes. Just the Switch version? Leaning towards no at the moment.

tag:"reviews only matter for the real hardcore gamer"

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Without a doubt, it has yet to become a pack in title for Switch.

When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Seems like the attach rate is staying in the 40-50% range. That is kind of nuts considering the game launched over 2 years ago, and is essentially just an enhanced port. The way it's selling the Switch version alone is going to pass the Wii version.

Switch+Wii U is pretty much certain. Switch-alone is possible, but we'll see.

Question is not if Mario Kart 8 Wii U + Switch will outsell Mario Kart Wii, question is if the Switch version alone will be able to do it... which, believe or not, is looking very likely right now.

2020 predictions: NSW 25m, PS5 6m, XSX 4.5m, PS4 9m, XB1 3m

In December 2019 i predicted 21m Switch, but that was before COVID, obvius increased my predictions.

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Have some charts.

After 10 quarters, Mario Kart 8 Deluxe has shipped 19.01 million to Mario Kart Wii's 24.01 million at the same point in its life. Despite Wii's lead, 8D has sold more in each of the last five quarters, shrinking the gap from a peak of 7.04 million at the end of Q5 to just 5.00 million at the end of Q10.

The attach rate is also an interesting comparison. Both titles launched at the same time of the year, but their early attach rates diverged wildly because of different launch timing in their respective consoles' life-cycles. Wii's attach rate never changed drastically after the first few quarters, and it continued to grow at a slow, steady pace for years afterward. Now, it stands at 36.64%.

In contrast, 8D has experienced more fluctuation in attach rate over the same period, making it difficult to estimate where it will go in the future. Over the past year, the rate has declined by about 5.3 percentage points. 8D still has a considerable lead in this category, and the fact that Switch will sell more than Wii certainly helps. However, MK8D will need to maintain this buffer if it hopes to surpass MKWii because of the threat that Mario Kart 9 poses to its legs.

I hope we get MK9 fairly soon. In that case, MK8 probably will not outsell Wii, because 9 would be on Switch and take the wind out from under 8D. But, considering that 8 is still selling well, and that they've released it twice (so Ninty probably figures that have to make a truly completely new game for the next one), I don't expect 9 until at least 2021.

I reckon combined mk8 could outsell wii, but the switch version alone, would be a long task, if mk9 doesn’t come out any time soon, then it could be a possibility. Impressive legs nonetheless

It all depends when Mario Kart 9 Comes Out. Let's say if it never releases on Switch, I believe MK8DX alone will outsell Mario Kart Wii Globally.

MK8 Deluxe is already outpacing the MKWii in sales within the same time period. And the Switch's install base has much more dedicated gamers than what the Wii had, so there are more potential buyers for MK8DX for the Switch, which is why I believe MK8DX will outsell MKWii.

But we have to see when MK9 comes out, if it gets released 2020 or 2021, I dont think it will outsell MKWii. But I could see Nintendo sitting on MK8DX for a while by how amazing the game is selling. I'm predicting towards the end of the Switch's life we'll see MK9 around 2023

There is a good chance it will do it combined, Switch alone can still do it but it needs longer