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Forums - Sales Discussion - Will Mario Kart 8 (Wii U + NS) outsell Mario Kart Wii?

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Will Mario Kart 8 outsell Mario Kart Wii?

Yes, Switch version by itself will do it 34 45.95%
 
Yes, but only if you comb... 32 43.24%
 
No 8 10.81%
 
Total:74

A lot of people keep mentioning Mario Kart 9, but I am not convinced Nintendo will release Mario Kart 9 on the Switch.  I mean, why would they need to?  Just look how Mario Kart 8D is selling.  Why release a new game that is just going to eat into the sales of the old game that is selling like no tomorrow?

Mario Kart 8D is a lot like GTA 5.  Technically GTA 5 was a PS3 game, but it also is the best selling game on the PS4.  Why would they release GTA 6?  (So far they haven't.)  Since GTA 5 keeps selling there is no reason to release GTA 6.  By the same token, since Mario Kart 8D keeps selling, there is no reason to release Mario Kart 9.  They could just keep developing it, and then release it as a launch title for the Switch's successor.



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With WiiU combined, it should outsell MKWii by holiday 2020. Without, sometime in 2022, that's if MK9 doesn't happen before that time. So Switch itself has a potential to make it happen, but realistically, I doubt we're going to wait that long for the next MK game.



Combined sales isn't gonna be much of a challenge at this point. It is clear the game will still sell quite the numbers in the upcoming months and even with an eventual new MK, I'd vouch to say that this game might have legs just as long as MK Wii have right now.

Can it do it on Switch only ? I don't think so here.



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As of right now about 80% of you say MK8 will outsell MKWii. Split about evenly between both versions combined and the Switch version by itself.



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I dunno mkwii's legs are insane. In places like SE Asia and Korea where Wii U wasn't introduced they kept selling Wii mini+mkwii bundles well into 2015. That's what NINTENDO OF KOREA did anyway. And apparently MKwii is STILL tracking in the current quarterly report lol.



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StarDoor said:

Have some charts.

After 10 quarters, Mario Kart 8 Deluxe has shipped 19.01 million to Mario Kart Wii's 24.01 million at the same point in its life. Despite Wii's lead, 8D has sold more in each of the last five quarters, shrinking the gap from a peak of 7.04 million at the end of Q5 to just 5.00 million at the end of Q10.

The attach rate is also an interesting comparison. Both titles launched at the same time of the year, but their early attach rates diverged wildly because of different launch timing in their respective consoles' life-cycles. Wii's attach rate never changed drastically after the first few quarters, and it continued to grow at a slow, steady pace for years afterward. Now, it stands at 36.64%.

In contrast, 8D has experienced more fluctuation in attach rate over the same period, making it difficult to estimate where it will go in the future. Over the past year, the rate has declined by about 5.3 percentage points. 8D still has a considerable lead in this category, and the fact that Switch will sell more than Wii certainly helps. However, MK8D will need to maintain this buffer if it hopes to surpass MKWii because of the threat that Mario Kart 9 poses to its legs.

MK8D is outselling MKWii each quarter right now. While it will get a big boost mid next year (bundle or what was the reason?), sales totally falter after that. So I'm pretty sure that MK8D will catch up a lot during that period - unless a MK Switch comes out in between, and even then it could still achieve it over time.



Year 
Platform 
Title 
Sales
(millions) 
Sales breakdown 
1992 Super Mario Kart 14.04
1992 SNES Super Mario Kart 8.76 JP: 3.82 million[2]
2017 SNES Super NES Classic Edition 5.28 Worldwide: 5.28 million[3]
1997 Mario Kart 64 to Mario Kart 7 101.84
1997 N64 Mario Kart 64 9.87 JP: 2.24 million[2]
US: 5.5 million[4]
2001 GBA Mario Kart: Super Circuit 5.91 JP: 938,175[5]
US: 2.53 million[4]
2003 GC Mario Kart: Double Dash! 6.88 JP: 826,000[6]
US: 3.85 million[4]
2005 DS Mario Kart DS 23.60 JP: 4,006,571[5]
US: 3 million[4]
2008 Wii Mario Kart Wii 37.24 JP: 3,783,315[7]
US: 11.3 million[8]
2011 3DS Mario Kart 7 18.47 JP: 3.01 million[n 1]
US: 3.48 million[16]
2014 Mario Kart 8 26.33
2014 Wii U Mario Kart 8 8.44 JP: 1,356,167[5]
US: 2 million[17]
2017 Switch Mario Kart 8 Deluxe 19.01 JP: 2.113 million[5]
Overseas: 9.63 million[15][18]
Franchise total 138.18

the Switch version is number 3 already and combined It is number 2 



Both versions of MK8 will outsell MKWii I think. No way MK8D gets there alone, but I do think it will go over 30 million. There won't be a MK9 until Switch 2, thats pretty obvious.



Looks like MK8D is Nintendo's default bundled game during BF and CM promotions week. If this kind of pattern didn't change then the Switch version alone is enough to outsell Mario Kart Wii.



Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 22.96 million
Mario Kart 8 - 8.44 million

Total: 31.40 million

5.84 million away from surpassing MKWii. Deluxe has 14.28 million to go.