Will Mario Kart 8 (Wii U + NS) outsell Mario Kart Wii?

[Bofferbrauer2]

StarDoor said:

Have some charts.

After 10 quarters, Mario Kart 8 Deluxe has shipped 19.01 million to Mario Kart Wii's 24.01 million at the same point in its life. Despite Wii's lead, 8D has sold more in each of the last five quarters, shrinking the gap from a peak of 7.04 million at the end of Q5 to just 5.00 million at the end of Q10.

The attach rate is also an interesting comparison. Both titles launched at the same time of the year, but their early attach rates diverged wildly because of different launch timing in their respective consoles' life-cycles. Wii's attach rate never changed drastically after the first few quarters, and it continued to grow at a slow, steady pace for years afterward. Now, it stands at 36.64%.

In contrast, 8D has experienced more fluctuation in attach rate over the same period, making it difficult to estimate where it will go in the future. Over the past year, the rate has declined by about 5.3 percentage points. 8D still has a considerable lead in this category, and the fact that Switch will sell more than Wii certainly helps. However, MK8D will need to maintain this buffer if it hopes to surpass MKWii because of the threat that Mario Kart 9 poses to its legs.

MK8D is outselling MKWii each quarter right now. While it will get a big boost mid next year (bundle or what was the reason?), sales totally falter after that. So I'm pretty sure that MK8D will catch up a lot during that period - unless a MK Switch comes out in between, and even then it could still achieve it over time.