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Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Software, 30th June 2018

Kyuu said:
Mnementh said:

First of all, I don't know where this 66% come from. The game sold 18,272 in the first week and 8528 in it's second. The sales in the second week are 46.6% of the sales in the first week, so a 53.4% drop.

Secondly, the drop is never influenced by initial sales. The genre influences it. So more casual games tend to have better legs, while more core games seem to be more fronloaded. More hyped up games are also more frontloaded. Sequels are often more frontloaded than the initial outing of the series. But sales-volume has no recognizable influence on the second-week drop.

And finally, let's make the real comparison. The game dropped in it's second week in the US to 39.2% of it's first week sales on PS4 and to 53.2% of it's first week sales on Xbox One. The Switch drop in sales is right there in the middle of it with 46.6%. So it's a pretty normal hold, not a great one like xMetroid claims, it did not drop 66% as Megiddo fudged the numbers and it is not a big drop as you claim. I don't know what's up with people, we have numbers and we can compare, why do people make so much completely unfounded claims. All around the spectrum, regardless the fanbase.

Zorg did not correct Megiddo's claim so I assumed it's true. Both Megiddo and Zorg are usually reliable users so I didn't think it needed checking.

A 53% drop for a game that opens with a measly 32k is still not a good indication for great legs. That may or may not change in the coming weeks (e.g. NieR Automata), but we can freely give our opinions on weekly drops.

Well made core games that open poorly can have the tendency to keep selling for a long time, and show much stronger legs relative to opening week than a game that opens big. So your "real comparison" is pointless. It's silly to expect similar drop rate patterns from a game that sells 18k on week 1 to one which opens with several hundred thousands (excluding some evergreen and launch titles)

Sorry, it's not silly. I checked Wolfenstein against the same title on other platforms. Do you really think I should compare it to what? Rayman Legends? Minecraft?

No, It's how things are. Games drop in sales sharply after initial week, if no extraordinary circumstances are at play. If we look at the current stuff in this USA chart and look at past weeks new releases:

The Crew 2 on PS4: down to 30.1% of first week sales

The Crew 2 on XB1: down to 27.2%

Crash on Switch: down to 35.1%

Crash on XB1: down to 41.4%

Ys VII on Switch: down to 16.5%

Mario Tennis on Switch: down to 45.5%

New Gundam Breaker on PS4: down to 19.7%

LEGO The Incredibles on PS4: down to 35.1%

LEGO The Incredibles on Switch: down to 42.5%

LEGO The Incredibles on XB1: down to 41.2%

Vampyr on PS4: down to 30.9%

Vampyr on XB1: down to 16.2%

and to add some big releases

God of War on PS4: down to 27.0%

Monster Hunter World on PS4: down to 43.6%

Monster Hunter World on XB1: down to 40.9%

As you can see these drops are pretty common. It even seems that the drop from Wolfenstein on Switch is less strong as drops happen at other titles at other times.

Your notion that the second-week drop depends on the strongness of initial sales is silly, and you should provide data to support your assumption. The data I can dig up shows more or less you made that one up.

So no, the second week drop on Wolfenstein Switch is pretty normal or even slightly less strong and in no way worrying. That is just imagination of the people that hate Nintendo so much they want to connect Switch in every way possible or impossible to failure. And that Megiddo and you have to make up your arguments, isn't very much helping your case. So please stop making stuff up and keep to the facts, pretty please with sugar on top.

And yes, as long as you don't check claims of other users, they may seem reliable.

Last edited by Mnementh - on 16 August 2018

3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023

10 years greatest game event!

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Yeah, I flubbed my math bad on that one. I appreciate the correction @Mnementh



Good sales for Mario Tennis, GoW, Detroit.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Megiddo said:
Yeah, I flubbed my math bad on that one. I appreciate the correction @Mnementh

OK, it's fine, we sometimes get something wrong. I got a bit harsh in my follow-up posts to Kyuu, sorry for that. Wanted to point out, that this number has no validity.

I kinda see how that error came along, you took the overall sales in second week as the 100%. Obviously then second week sales look worse.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

Lawlight said:
Mbolibombo said:

Only on games that has a physical release.

Digital only releases is not included.

I don’t think that’s correct.

It's correct. I believe it was Takashi Mochizuki (WSJ tech reporter) who even asked the Nintendo rep straight up at the last Q report briefing why they did this and all they said was that they had always done this.

Nintendo logics is a thing after all..

I'll see if I can get some quotes when I'm by the computer later tonight. Remind me if you will.



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Kyuu said:

Zorg did not correct Megiddo's claim so I assumed it's true. Both Megiddo and Zorg are usually reliable users so I didn't think it needed checking.

Oh so this is my fault now

Im glad you think im reliable though lol



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Kyuu said:
Mnementh said:

Sorry, it's not silly. I checked Wolfenstein against the same title on other platforms. Do you really think I should compare it to what? Rayman Legends? Minecraft?

No, It's how things are. Games drop in sales sharply after initial week, if no extraordinary circumstances are at play. If we look at the current stuff in this USA chart and look at past weeks new releases:

The Crew 2 on PS4: down to 30.1% of first week sales

The Crew 2 on XB1: down to 27.2%

Crash on Switch: down to 35.1%

Crash on XB1: down to 41.4%

Ys VII on Switch: down to 16.5%

Mario Tennis on Switch: down to 45.5%

New Gundam Breaker on PS4: down to 19.7%

LEGO The Incredibles on PS4: down to 35.1%

LEGO The Incredibles on Switch: down to 42.5%

LEGO The Incredibles on XB1: down to 41.2%

Vampyr on PS4: down to 30.9%

Vampyr on XB1: down to 16.2%

and to add some big releases

God of War on PS4: down to 27.0%

Monster Hunter World on PS4: down to 43.6%

Monster Hunter World on XB1: down to 40.9%

As you can see these drops are pretty common. It even seems that the drop from Wolfenstein on Switch is less strong as drops happen at other titles at other times.

Your notion that the second-week drop depends on the strongness of initial sales is silly, and you should provide data to support your assumption. The data I can dig up shows more or less you made that one up.

So no, the second week drop on Wolfenstein Switch is pretty normal or even slightly less strong and in no way worrying. That is just imagination of the people that hate Nintendo so much they want to connect Switch in every way possible or impossible to failure. And that Megiddo and you have to make up your arguments, isn't very much helping your case. So please stop making stuff up and keep to the facts, pretty please with sugar on top.

And yes, as long as you don't check claims of other users, they may seem reliable.

Look man, I know you hate my guts, but I never claimed the 2nd week drop is bad per se after you corrected Megiddo. I said a 53% drop is so far... SO FAR... not "good enough" an indicator, which was intended as a response to xMetroid's claim that it held out well. Does that mean it has no hope? Certainly not, it could for all we know pull a NieR Automata (Which btw is a game I was initially very disappointed with its sales, I expressed that to the point of borderline ridiculing PS gamers' buying habits/tastes, and a few users agreed with me. No one threw a tantrum! No one acted like a sly! Just relax, and don't spam the "Nintendo hate" card if you wish to be taken seriously.) If Wolfenstein's sales don't stabilize or pick up during early weeks, then the game's simply doing bad, you don't need to be a Nintendo hater to see that much. Replicating big sellers drop rate would lead it straight to its.. Doom!

All PS4/X1 game mentioned either opened at least decently or just flat out failed (so far). Wolfenstein 2 proportionately dropping slightly less than those is by no means an achievement.

PS4/X1 do not have many quality core games that open with a 32k. So it's hard to come up with many good examples. Instead, I'm using good ol' common sense, games that open too poorly will have to rely on minimal drops and strong legs to turn things around. Do you disagree with that?

But what are you trying to prove by comparing a failure to another failure? The Crew 2 and Lego The Incredibles bombed deservedly (or not? it doesn't matter.. they're bombas. I'm making no attempts to deny that.) Ys8 is a good game but is low budget and super niche, New Gundam Breaker is the Unholy Trinity: massive bomba, ultra-niche, and awful. Ys8 stands out as the only good game among those, I made no comment on its performance here because the results are expected.

Why are you making a scene out of this? I was more critical/negative to Persona 5 and NieR Automata sales during their early weeks (Around week 2, 3, and 4 in the west), because their being PS4 games gave me the liberty to express myself. It's unfortunate that I can never approach Nintendo gamers in the same manner without starting a problem with someone.. just take a look at your own dramatic reactions over every little thing I do. It seems to upset you dearly that I think third party games don't sell all that well on Nintendo platforms.


Long story short:

Wolfenstein opened terribly, and the 2nd week US data isn't encouraging. Your comparison is fine, but not in the way to say "Would you look at that hold! This is good! There is nothing to worry about!" If you think it takes a Nintendo-Hating-Infidel to see it like this (or come to the conclusion that third parties don't have a very strong selling power on Nintendo platforms), then you are a hopeless Nintendo fanboy.

I'm not hating your guts because you said it was bad, it is because you kept this reinforcing with some silly notion good initial sellers have bigger drop-offs. I'm not in the boat saying Wolfenstein on Switch does great, if you look through my posts I state even, that it is more astounding that Bethesda brings Eternal Doom and considers Rage for Switch, although Doom and Wolfenstein both show, that the Switch has a comparatively small userbase for shooters (at least these shooters). But the second week drop-off is pretty regular, it follows the same curve as the versions on other platforms, so the initial weaker sales probably translate to similar weaker sales lifetime. It does not have a more extreme drop-off. This is what I showed, and what is releveant. If you misunderstood my posts to defending the sales overall, no they aren't. And as you can see, I also spoke in my initial answer to your post also against the classification of the hold as "great". But it is not bad or horrible either. It is the normal sales-curve. And that's what I argued, not inventing some scenario to paint the Wolfenstein sales as good.

If I want to show better sellers on Switch, I can easily point towards platformers, which generally seem to do a lot better than shooters on Switch (well the two shooter examples we have at least, as Doom and Wolfenstein are it).



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

Kyuu said:
Mnementh said:

Sorry, it's not silly. I checked Wolfenstein against the same title on other platforms. Do you really think I should compare it to what? Rayman Legends? Minecraft?

No, It's how things are. Games drop in sales sharply after initial week, if no extraordinary circumstances are at play. If we look at the current stuff in this USA chart and look at past weeks new releases:

The Crew 2 on PS4: down to 30.1% of first week sales

The Crew 2 on XB1: down to 27.2%

Crash on Switch: down to 35.1%

Crash on XB1: down to 41.4%

Ys VII on Switch: down to 16.5%

Mario Tennis on Switch: down to 45.5%

New Gundam Breaker on PS4: down to 19.7%

LEGO The Incredibles on PS4: down to 35.1%

LEGO The Incredibles on Switch: down to 42.5%

LEGO The Incredibles on XB1: down to 41.2%

Vampyr on PS4: down to 30.9%

Vampyr on XB1: down to 16.2%

and to add some big releases

God of War on PS4: down to 27.0%

Monster Hunter World on PS4: down to 43.6%

Monster Hunter World on XB1: down to 40.9%

As you can see these drops are pretty common. It even seems that the drop from Wolfenstein on Switch is less strong as drops happen at other titles at other times.

Your notion that the second-week drop depends on the strongness of initial sales is silly, and you should provide data to support your assumption. The data I can dig up shows more or less you made that one up.

So no, the second week drop on Wolfenstein Switch is pretty normal or even slightly less strong and in no way worrying. That is just imagination of the people that hate Nintendo so much they want to connect Switch in every way possible or impossible to failure. And that Megiddo and you have to make up your arguments, isn't very much helping your case. So please stop making stuff up and keep to the facts, pretty please with sugar on top.

And yes, as long as you don't check claims of other users, they may seem reliable.

Look man, I know you hate my guts, but I never claimed the 2nd week drop is bad per se after you corrected Megiddo. I said a 53% drop is so far... SO FAR... not "good enough" an indicator, which was intended as a response to xMetroid's claim that it held out well. Does that mean it has no hope? Certainly not, it could for all we know pull a NieR Automata (Which btw is a game I was initially very disappointed with its sales, I expressed that to the point of borderline ridiculing PS gamers' buying habits/tastes, and a few users agreed with me. No one threw a tantrum! No one acted like a sly! Just relax, and don't spam the "Nintendo hate" card if you wish to be taken seriously.) If Wolfenstein's sales don't stabilize or pick up during early weeks, then the game's simply doing bad, you don't need to be a Nintendo hater to see that much. Replicating big sellers drop rate would lead it straight to its.. Doom!

All PS4/X1 game mentioned either opened at least decently or just flat out failed (so far). Wolfenstein 2 proportionately dropping slightly less than those is by no means an achievement.

PS4/X1 do not have many quality core games that open with a 32k. So it's hard to come up with many good examples. Instead, I'm using good ol' common sense, games that open too poorly will have to rely on minimal drops and strong legs to turn things around. Do you disagree with that?

But what are you trying to prove by comparing a failure to another failure? The Crew 2 and Lego The Incredibles bombed deservedly (or not? it doesn't matter.. they're bombas. I'm making no attempts to deny that.) Ys8 is a good game but is low budget and super niche, New Gundam Breaker is the Unholy Trinity: massive bomba, ultra-niche, and awful. Ys8 stands out as the only good game among those, I made no comment on its performance here because the results are expected.

Why are you making a scene out of this? I was more critical/negative to Persona 5 and NieR Automata sales during their early weeks (Around week 2, 3, and 4 in the west), because their being PS4 games gave me the liberty to express myself. It's unfortunate that I can never approach Nintendo gamers in the same manner without starting a problem with someone.. just take a look at your own dramatic reactions over every little thing I do. It seems to upset you dearly that I think third party games don't sell all that well on Nintendo platforms.


Long story short:

Wolfenstein opened terribly, and the 2nd week US data isn't encouraging. Your comparison is fine, but not in the way to say "Would you look at that hold! This is good! There is nothing to worry about!" If you think it takes a Nintendo-Hating-Infidel to see it like this (or come to the conclusion that third parties don't have a very strong selling power on Nintendo platforms), then you are a hopeless Nintendo fanboy.

zorg1000 said:

Oh so this is my fault now

Im glad you think im reliable though lol

You're more guilty than I am coz you're a Nintendo fan (Now let's see if this too gets misinterpreted by someone. It's easy to misunderstand someone you dislike.)

So now youre saying Nintendo fans are better at math?



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Kyuu said:
Mnementh said:

I'm not hating your guts because you said it was bad, it is because you kept this reinforcing with some silly notion good initial sellers have bigger drop-offs. I'm not in the boat saying Wolfenstein on Switch does great, if you look through my posts I state even, that it is more astounding that Bethesda brings Eternal Doom and considers Rage for Switch, although Doom and Wolfenstein both show, that the Switch has a comparatively small userbase for shooters (at least these shooters). But the second week drop-off is pretty regular, it follows the same curve as the versions on other platforms, so the initial weaker sales probably translate to similar weaker sales lifetime. It does not have a more extreme drop-off. This is what I showed, and what is releveant. If you misunderstood my posts to defending the sales overall, no they aren't. And as you can see, I also spoke in my initial answer to your post also against the classification of the hold as "great". But it is not bad or horrible either. It is the normal sales-curve. And that's what I argued, not inventing some scenario to paint the Wolfenstein sales as good.

If I want to show better sellers on Switch, I can easily point towards platformers, which generally seem to do a lot better than shooters on Switch (well the two shooter examples we have at least, as Doom and Wolfenstein are it).

Then we were arguing different things. My intentions were crystal clear, but you decided to make a big deal out of such a trivial detail simply because you don't agree with how I view the market (The shit you're attacking me for are excuses to take your frustration out on me, your retaliation is disproportionate to my little "crime") PS4 and X1 have no equivalent to Wolfenstein Switch situation (32k FW for a great game) it's totally normal to assume that a good word of mouth will help sustaining legs better than a third party game with a big opening, so a 53% drop is not really a great hold in that sense. I'm not obliged to share your extremely low expectations of the game's performance. I will apologize though for possibly lumping your stance with xMetroid's implication.

Yes.. platformers, side scrollers, 2D games, indies, among other genres/styles seem to do quite well on Switch. I expressed that on your very thread:

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8831009
"This doesn't negate that multiple genres or sub-genres tend to perform better on Switch. Like indies in general, platformers, kart racers, party and family oriented games, and potentially even core fighting games (due to massively declining on traditional consoles) to name a few."


But you forgot I wrote that.. because I'm the villain and you ought to do your job as part of the Nintendo-Defense-Force. I'll be sure to completely avoid you from her on out and hope you'll ignore me as well. I don't appreciate spending the little time I have here being vilified for stupid crap like this.

Yeah, sure Nintendo Defense Force. Do you have more silly stuff to say?

This had nothing to do with Nintendo. You claimed that the second-week drop-off has to do with the size of initial sales. A claim you never substantiated with data. Instead I brought data that showed your claim is wrong. Also I comparing the drop-off with the one of the SAME GAME on different platforms, which apparently is wrong. Because basically: you are right, and if the reality shows something different, than obviously it is the conspiracy of rabid Nintendo-fanboys.

Whatever, seems you're not able to lead a meaningful discussion.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]