Well, I put way too much faith in the VGchartz numbers. Yikes, some big revisions will need to be made.
Miyamotoo said:
More games obviously in any case, more Pokemon, more 3D Zelda, more 3D Mario, more new IPs, more old IPs, more 3rd party exclusives, more spin offs, more 3rd party support, more ports/remasters...remember, Switch is becoming only Nintendo platform they need to support so support will be much easier and they can easily try more different and new thing. Hardware revisions also always boost sales. Than you also have revisions, bundles, price cuts... Talking about biggest Nintendo IPs, This year will probably have Pokemon and Smash Bros, next we could have Animal Crossing and 2D Mario, next again Pokemon and 3D Mario...after that 3D Zelda and new Mario Kart.. |
I'll make this much clear to you. I think the Switch is going to reach 90+ million lifetime. It's going to be a huge success. It's going to accumalate a must have library in these next few years and is already well on it's way doing that. I'm not a Nintendo doom and gloom artist.
All I'm saying is this whole dream of the Switch handing PS4 it's gizzards is going to be abruptly interrupted. If people are expecting the PS4 to sell 16-18 million this year where it's already beating Switch handily, and probably will until the fall at the very least. What exactly are people expecting Smash and Pokemon to do? Push 7-8 million hardware units in the holidays? And somehow PS4 will drop the ball even though they have Spider-Man, Red Dead, CoD and shit?
Pokemon might even be the best selling game this year, but even then It doesn't garuntee hardware sales will push past PS4, maybe in the given month of release, but not the whole year.
I mean, if Nintendo doesn't want to release games, people won't want to buy their machine. Whoever wants to play Zelda and Mario already bought it by this point, those are just the late buyers. They still have to release a relevant game in 2018, let's hope the game changer is coming, but so far, only half-promises and rumors.
Sony on the other hand keeps knocking it out of the park. Very good numbers, with Spider-man in the near future and Pro upgrades, I only expect those numbers to get better.
thismeintiel said:
Short answer, it's not. Longer one. I think PS4 is going to outdo Sony's prediction and sell ~17M-18M. They will have a permanent cut to $249 this year, and most likely another $199 week. And that's not even taking into account the games it has releasing. Still, with all that, the max it can hope for is 18M. At this point, I think it's obvious, Nintendo expected Labo to help push HW, at least until the holidays and a few larger releases. That didn't pan out. So, my guess is they are either going to amend their goal, or they are going to have massive sales this holiday season, with probably a permanent cut to $249, as well. Still, even with all that, I still see them missing their goal. Probably matching Sony's 17M-18M. Basically, Nintendo thought they had the next Wii, but it's not looking that way. It's definitely going to do well, but it's not exactly a phenomenon. |
I tend to agree. Though I can't see Nintendo banking so much on Labo and we don't know what they present for second half of the year, it seems that currently the momentum cooled down. In the FY 2017/18 the Switch sold a bit over 15 million uniots, so from that it seems 20M is not so far-fetched, but they need something to gain momentum. Labo isn't that. To be fair, FY 2018/19 just started with April, so a lot can happen still.
Faelco said:
I thought it was the April NPD? Isn't April the 4th month of the year?
Making prediction based on a third of the year doesn't sound that crazy... |
The 20M forecast of Nintendo is aimed at the financial year from April 2018 to March 2019.
On page 15 here:
https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2018/180426e.pdf
LethalP said:
I'll make this much clear to you. I think the Switch is going to reach 90+ million lifetime. It's going to be a huge success. It's going to accumalate a must have library in these next few years and is already well on it's way doing that. I'm not a Nintendo doom and gloom artist. All I'm saying is this whole dream of the Switch handing PS4 it's gizzards is going to be abruptly interrupted. If people are expecting the PS4 to sell 16-18 million this year where it's already beating Switch handily, and probably will until the fall at the very least. What exactly are people expecting Smash and Pokemon to do? Push 7-8 million hardware units in the holidays? And somehow PS4 will drop the ball even though they have Spider-Man, Red Dead, CoD and shit? Pokemon might even be the best selling game this year, but even then It doesn't garuntee hardware sales will push past PS4, maybe in the given month of release, but not the whole year. |
IT early to say how much Switch will sell at end that depends from many factors, including life span and number of revisions, but at end of this year will be easily at 30m+.
PS4 sales are irelevent when we talk about Switch sales. FY 2018. starts in April 2018. and ending on 31. March 2019. So how PS4 and Switch until now (its only counts April) doesnt relly matter especially because Switch will start getting stronger titles later from June. Last year in October-December quarter Switch sold around 7m, you can bet that Pokemon would push that number for same period easily above 7m.
There is reason why Sony expecting that PS4 will sell 16m and why Nintendo expecting that Switch sell 20m, Smash Bros and Pokemon would whitout problem push Switch to 20m in FY 2018. because we talk about one of Nintendo biggest system seller games.
Last edited by Miyamotoo - on 18 May 2018
Holy shit @ps4,i knew vgcharts where of by a huge margin,ps4 prob did about 350-450k gow week.
Gigantic sales,just imagine a ps4 250 gow bundle,or even a 199.95 pricecut.
But yes,sony is going to cut down ps4 life with a ps5 launch in 2019,lol NOO
God of War, Spider-man, Kingdom Hearts 3, Red Dead Redemption 2, COD BLOPS IV
Sony is going to blow 16 mil right out of the park.
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