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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Prediction: The Switch will become the best selling console yet!

If Labo takes hold and gets the support is requires, the switch will transcend markets and become a sought after toy as well.  In that case i agree, every household will have one.



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I expected a Tbone thread, now I'm disappointed

Like Nemo pointed out, DS and PS2 had some special ciconstances which helped them boost sales above what they could normally achieve.

However, I think the Switch has some similar chances:

- It's hybrid design makes it possible to play everywhere
- Similar to handhelds, some households will have several units ( though less than a pure handheld device)
- PS4/XBO have probably reached their limit saleswise, and Switch will start stealing players
- Innovative ideas like labo keep the general public and parents interested into the Switch
- Not having 2 dedicated devices means higher output of games
- Unlike almost any Nintendo home console after the SNES, the Switch is getting a large third party library, and unlike the Wii many more "core" games in the third party lineup
- From what we know, down the line, there will be no other choice than the Switch for a handheld gaming device, as Vita and 3DS are slowly getting phased out in the next years.

It might not be enough to reach and beat PS2/DS, but I'm positive it can beat PS1/Wii, my guess is some 120-140M



RolStoppable said:

You can't rule out an expansion of Nintendo into more Rest of the World countries. They may have not done it yet, but they probably regret that they didn't try with Wii and DS. If you wonder about Wii U and 3DS, there's not much of a point in trying with troubled systems.

Oh, I calculated already with such an expansion. If everything goes right, Switch could sell 15M in ROW. That is an increase to the 12M of the DS and also beats PS3 and is on a level with PSP. But as I said before: reaching into these markets is not as easy for Nintendo as it is for Sony. If Sony makes a deal with a small local retail-chain, they not only sell Playstation-products through that deal, but also smartphones, TVs, SD-cards and so on. So even with smaller retail-chains/smaller countries such an effort brings more profit. So it will probably not reach the level of the PS2: 25M. That are 10 million sales missing. It sounds not too big in comparison to 100M/150M, but it is certainly something that has to be sold at another area. DS did that.

 

RolStoppable said:

As for multiple units per household, price isn't a real obstacle as Switch will not cost $300 throughout its entire life. $200 already makes it feasible and Switch will certainly get down to that price point. Remember, parents won't need to buy every child a Switch in the same year, so the expense isn't as tricky as you seem to fear.

It is pretty clear that the price will go down. But the same was true for DS and 3DS. If starting on a higher pricepoint, do you expect the price of the Switch to dip as low as for DS? Probably not. So price will prohibit some households from buying multiple devices. How many? I can't really say, hard to know without market research. Past data from the DS is probably also pretty useless, as households may have different budgets now than they had 10 years ago.

 

RolStoppable said:

Mobility can be addressed with revisions. Perhaps there will be a handheld-first Switch eventually; a clamshell design with built-in controls instead of detachable Joy-Cons. Obviously, this Switch could still be docked because offering that feature isn't going to change the costs much; if need be, both dock and controller could be sold separately, the controller would be separate anyway. A revision could look different than what I described, but I don't expect some lunacy like a handheld-only Switch.

Maybe. If we see such designs I will appreciate it and modify my prediction. I didn't say 150M are impossible, I said it is unlikely. If Nintendo releases more mobile Switches that will increase the likelyhood. But we can't know for sure.

By the way, non detachable Joy-Cons are worse for the system as always docked/never docked models. I realized how important it is to have detachable Joy-Cons for different gameplay-options. Labo just showed another one. This is the most important feature of Switch, even above the hybrid nature.

 

RolStoppable said:

As for parenting, it wouldn't take more than a simple rule that the TV can only be used for multiplayer games if multiple people want to play. But this is something where you are looking really, really hard to find a problem.

Yeah, I don't know if that has influence. Probably not. I was on a roll with my post and added that as I could see the possibility. That probably has not much impact. Either late sales (like PS2) or multiple devices per household (as the DS) are key. I can't see really the late sales, so the only chance are multiple purchases per house. The jury is out on that still. The other stuff like ROW makes it just a little more difficult.



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RolStoppable said:
Mnementh said:

Oh, I calculated already with such an expansion. If everything goes right, Switch could sell 15M in ROW. That is an increase to the 12M of the DS and also beats PS3 and is on a level with PSP. But as I said before: reaching into these markets is not as easy for Nintendo as it is for Sony. If Sony makes a deal with a small local retail-chain, they not only sell Playstation-products through that deal, but also smartphones, TVs, SD-cards and so on. So even with smaller retail-chains/smaller countries such an effort brings more profit. So it will probably not reach the level of the PS2: 25M. That are 10 million sales missing. It sounds not too big in comparison to 100M/150M, but it is certainly something that has to be sold at another area. DS did that.

It is pretty clear that the price will go down. But the same was true for DS and 3DS. If starting on a higher pricepoint, do you expect the price of the Switch to dip as low as for DS? Probably not. So price will prohibit some households from buying multiple devices. How many? I can't really say, hard to know without market research. Past data from the DS is probably also pretty useless, as households may have different budgets now than they had 10 years ago.

Maybe. If we see such designs I will appreciate it and modify my prediction. I didn't say 150M are impossible, I said it is unlikely. If Nintendo releases more mobile Switches that will increase the likelyhood. But we can't know for sure.

By the way, non detachable Joy-Cons are worse for the system as always docked/never docked models. I realized how important it is to have detachable Joy-Cons for different gameplay-options. Labo just showed another one. This is the most important feature of Switch, even above the hybrid nature.

Yeah, I don't know if that has influence. Probably not. I was on a roll with my post and added that as I could see the possibility. That probably has not much impact. Either late sales (like PS2) or multiple devices per household (as the DS) are key. I can't see really the late sales, so the only chance are multiple purchases per house. The jury is out on that still. The other stuff like ROW makes it just a little more difficult.

Indeed, the DS sold over 150m units, so such sales levels aren't uncharted territory for Nintendo. It's not entirely about Rest of the World anyway, because Nintendo still has a lot of work left to do in Eastern Europe.

Everything is more expensive nowadays (that's what inflation does), so if Switch can't get below $150, it won't be a real issue. At that point in time it will be the most affordable console on the market, so perception will make such a price less of a problem.

A consumer who is looking for higher mobility won't mind it if they can't play Labo or other Joy-Con-centric games. The hybrid nature of Switch is most certainly more important than the Joy-Cons, because the hybrid nature is the system's name. Regardless, theoretically Nintendo could launch any kind of revision they see a large enough market for.

Well, I agree, except for one thing: hybrid nature isn't more important than the detachable Joycons. For starters: without the detachable Joycons you basically lose the docked mode, as you have no controller in that situation. Or you would have to add a Pro controller to that package.

But there is more. I recently realized that the Wii had the problem that it had no classic controller packed in. The Wiimote was great, but for porting a game with classical control setup, you had to be creative. So the Wii got a lot of exclusives but not too much multiplats. The Switch has a classical controller packed in: the Joycons can be put in the Grip to create a classic controller setup. Therefore 3rd-parties have no problem porting games relying on that input scheme.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

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Not going to happen Nintendo have shown they drop consoles quicker than Sony once the successor comes out.
To get to 150 million they need to sell at least 20 Million each year for the next 7 years, they will have a successor to the switch out long before then



Very bold, indeed



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Yeah, this seems too bold, even if there's a very slight chance of it happening. I feel it'd have to at least have to be Nintendo's main system for a good long while, past their usual 5 year life span the more recent systems had, and I'm not sure if it will go on for that long,but maybe it will. There's also the manner of it getting plenty of support, which is still a 'wait-and-see' point. It's definitely too early to tell how the system will do long term.



 

              

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Talking about potential Switch sales and comparison with Wii for instance, big difrence is that Switch is not like regular Nintendo console, its their unifeed platform, so it will have whole and undivided focus of Nintendo. Big drops in sales like for Wii are less posible, Nintendo will manage much more similar to 3DS, long life and multiply difrent revisions.



Cloudman said:
Yeah, this seems too bold, even if there's a very slight chance of it happening. I feel it'd have to at least have to be Nintendo's main system for a good long while, past their usual 5 year life span the more recent systems had, and I'm not sure if it will go on for that long,but maybe it will. There's also the manner of it getting plenty of support, which is still a 'wait-and-see' point. It's definitely too early to tell how the system will do long term.

There have been some remarks that Nintendo plans to go longer than their usual cycle.

With plenty of revisions, price drops, and undivided Nintendo first party, it may be 2025 or 2026 before they announce their next platform.