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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Prediction: The Switch will become the best selling console yet!

I love bold predictions, but you're kinda crazy. I like crazy, but you're still crazy.



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This reminds me of certain older threads that used to predict 200-500 million Wii's sold LT by certain members. Good old days when JhonLucas was still around. Alas, it is easy to get carried away with predicitions, when a system is doing good numbers, the problem is that soon afterward market reality starts to get into the way.

In all honesty I am still skepticalt that the Switch has the potential to hit 100 million. It could do it, hell maybe even pass it by 10-20 million units, if everything remains in it's favor. But that is still a big 'if".



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trent44 said:
Cloudman said:
Yeah, this seems too bold, even if there's a very slight chance of it happening. I feel it'd have to at least have to be Nintendo's main system for a good long while, past their usual 5 year life span the more recent systems had, and I'm not sure if it will go on for that long,but maybe it will. There's also the manner of it getting plenty of support, which is still a 'wait-and-see' point. It's definitely too early to tell how the system will do long term.

There have been some remarks that Nintendo plans to go longer than their usual cycle.

With plenty of revisions, price drops, and undivided Nintendo first party, it may be 2025 or 2026 before they announce their next platform.

I do think the Switch could have a good chance to last longer than 5 years, but I don't think it'll go as far as 2025. The tech would be way past outdated by then.



 

              

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Cloudman said:
trent44 said:

There have been some remarks that Nintendo plans to go longer than their usual cycle.

With plenty of revisions, price drops, and undivided Nintendo first party, it may be 2025 or 2026 before they announce their next platform.

I do think the Switch could have a good chance to last longer than 5 years, but I don't think it'll go as far as 2025. The tech would be way past outdated by then.

Will Switch in 2025 be more outdated than 3DS in 2018?



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zorg1000 said:
Cloudman said:

I do think the Switch could have a good chance to last longer than 5 years, but I don't think it'll go as far as 2025. The tech would be way past outdated by then.

Will Switch in 2025 be more outdated than 3DS in 2018?

Well, if Nintendo's next platform was just being announced  around 2025-2026, wouldn't the Switch be around 8-9 years old? With how the PS4/XBO is in terms of power, the Switch is already behind those 2 consoles and modern home console games are already quite demanding, which will only grow as time goes on. I figure it'd only get more difficult for 3rd party to support the system unless they made games specific for the console. So I figure Nintendo would need to make new hardware before at least 2025.

In terms of the 3DS, games made for portable devices usually require less resource so power isn't as big of an issue for those types of systems.



 

              

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Cloudman said:
zorg1000 said:

Will Switch in 2025 be more outdated than 3DS in 2018?

Well, if Nintendo's next platform was just being announced  around 2025-2026, wouldn't the Switch be around 8-9 years old? With how the PS4/XBO is in terms of power, the Switch is already behind those 2 consoles and modern home console games are already quite demanding, which will only grow as time goes on. I figure it'd only get more difficult for 3rd party to support the system unless they made games specific for the console. So I figure Nintendo would need to make new hardware before at least 2025.

In terms of the 3DS, games made for portable devices usually require less resource so power isn't as big of an issue for those types of systems.

Dont your first and second paragraph kinda contradict each other?

First you say 3rd parties wont support Switch when PS5/XB4 release because it will be too weak.

Then you say being being weaker requires less resources so its not a problem for 3DS.

So which is it, will 3rd parties not support Switch because its weak and cant handle multiplats or will they support it because its weak and requires less resources?

 

 

With that said, i do not expect Switch to still be their main platform in 2025.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
Cloudman said:

Well, if Nintendo's next platform was just being announced  around 2025-2026, wouldn't the Switch be around 8-9 years old? With how the PS4/XBO is in terms of power, the Switch is already behind those 2 consoles and modern home console games are already quite demanding, which will only grow as time goes on. I figure it'd only get more difficult for 3rd party to support the system unless they made games specific for the console. So I figure Nintendo would need to make new hardware before at least 2025.

In terms of the 3DS, games made for portable devices usually require less resource so power isn't as big of an issue for those types of systems.

Dont your first and second paragraph kinda contradict each other?

First you say 3rd parties wont support Switch when PS5/XB4 release because it will be too weak.

Then you say being being weaker requires less resources so its not a problem for 3DS.

So which is it, will 3rd parties not support Switch because its weak and cant handle multiplats or will they support it because its weak and requires less resources?

 

 

With that said, i do not expect Switch to still be their main platform in 2025.

Well, I figure 3rd party will treat the Switch more as a home console, so they'll be looking at whether they can port their AAA games to the system, which may become problematic as time goes on. Japanese 3rd party though won't have as much of a problem. In that case, perhaps it'll only be a western problem in terms of 3rd party.

With all this said, I'm totally fine with being wrong and Switch living that long. I'm just looking at it at a more realistic/pessimistic view.



 

              

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Cloudman said:
zorg1000 said:

Dont your first and second paragraph kinda contradict each other?

First you say 3rd parties wont support Switch when PS5/XB4 release because it will be too weak.

Then you say being being weaker requires less resources so its not a problem for 3DS.

So which is it, will 3rd parties not support Switch because its weak and cant handle multiplats or will they support it because its weak and requires less resources?

 

 

With that said, i do not expect Switch to still be their main platform in 2025.

Well, I figure 3rd party will treat the Switch more as a home console, so they'll be looking at whether they can port their AAA games to the system, which may become problematic as time goes on. Japanese 3rd party though won't have as much of a problem. In that case, perhaps it'll only be a western problem in terms of 3rd party.

With all this said, I'm totally fine with being wrong and Switch living that long. I'm just looking at it at a more realistic/pessimistic view.

Well thats the thing, if they cant support it like a home console than they will resort to supporting it like a portable console which is small-medium sized games which include indie games, Japanese games, family/kid games & previous gen ports/remasters.

Doesnt that basically describe its current 3rd party support along with the type of support 3DS & Vita primarily received? So in other words, nothing changes.

 

I agree with you that it probably wont be selling much by 2025, i just dont agree with the reasoning you gave.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
Cloudman said:

Well, if Nintendo's next platform was just being announced  around 2025-2026, wouldn't the Switch be around 8-9 years old? With how the PS4/XBO is in terms of power, the Switch is already behind those 2 consoles and modern home console games are already quite demanding, which will only grow as time goes on. I figure it'd only get more difficult for 3rd party to support the system unless they made games specific for the console. So I figure Nintendo would need to make new hardware before at least 2025.

In terms of the 3DS, games made for portable devices usually require less resource so power isn't as big of an issue for those types of systems.

Dont your first and second paragraph kinda contradict each other?

First you say 3rd parties wont support Switch when PS5/XB4 release because it will be too weak.

Then you say being being weaker requires less resources so its not a problem for 3DS.

So which is it, will 3rd parties not support Switch because its weak and cant handle multiplats or will they support it because its weak and requires less resources?

 

 

With that said, i do not expect Switch to still be their main platform in 2025.

Well that is the thing isn't it, what games need more power nowadays anyway?

If your budget is the same and you are not going to be investing in a ton of graphical improvements, and the developer tools stay streamlined.

The only games requiring more resources are a ever-shrinking sliver of $100+ million budget games.

And now that Nintendo Switch will be established in the production pipeline (especially once it has outsold Xbox One's LTD) with what are very scale-able engines.

I really don't see it being an issue as the years roll on.

Even Square-Enix has remarked that the Nintendo Switch is a great space to bring back more medium budget games. Alluding to that Nintendo Switch's lower Spec Cap (limiting graphical development budgets) serves even the playing field a bit and assists smaller developers in competing with bigger games since there would be less disparity, and people are less focused on spectacle on portable devices.

Sure, there will be a successor at some point, but there is definitely no rush just to garner a few mega budget multiplatform games that are becoming increasingly unsustainable anyway (having to lean on being full price $60 and then also having MTX, DLC, etc. more and more and more just to cover the ever self induced cost bloat in the graphical arms race).



zorg1000 said:
Cloudman said:

Well, I figure 3rd party will treat the Switch more as a home console, so they'll be looking at whether they can port their AAA games to the system, which may become problematic as time goes on. Japanese 3rd party though won't have as much of a problem. In that case, perhaps it'll only be a western problem in terms of 3rd party.

With all this said, I'm totally fine with being wrong and Switch living that long. I'm just looking at it at a more realistic/pessimistic view.

Well thats the thing, if they cant support it like a home console than they will resort to supporting it like a portable console which is small-medium sized games which include indie games, Japanese games, family/kid games & previous gen ports/remasters.

Doesnt that basically describe its current 3rd party support along with the type of support 3DS & Vita primarily received? So in other words, nothing changes.

 

I agree with you that it probably wont be selling much by 2025, i just dont agree with the reasoning you gave.

Yeah, it seems like it doesn't seem like that much of an issue when you consider all those types of games. It'd just be missing some AAA games, which sometimes has a lot of importance put on them and is seen as a detriment to the system.



 

              

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