PAOerfulone said: I haven't been this invested in a record chase since Barry Bonds' pursuit of Hank Aaron's Home Run record in 2006-2007. |
This FY and next FY are going to be the most important for determining how well this prediction is doing. Switch total shipments for the FY ending March 2020 were 55.78m. This FY is going to be the peak and the year after will show us how much of a hold (or drop) Switch is getting after its peak. Once we see the next two years then it will be a lot more clear how the Switch is going to do.
Optimistic case: High peak and strong hold. Maybe something like 30m this FY and 25m next FY. That would put Switch at essentially 111m at March 2022. Now assume around 30% drops after that and get approx. 17.5m, 12m, 8.5m and another 20-30m in the following years and you get 169m-179m. Basically in this scenario with a high peak and a strong hold it's pretty easy for Switch to take the top spot.
Pessimistic case: Lower peak and a big drop. Let's say Switch ships 24m this FY and 15m next FY. This puts Switch at about 95m at March 2022. Assume 40% drops and get approx. 9m, 5m, and another 15-25m in the following years. That puts the total at 124m-134m. With a low peak this FY and a big drop next FY, then there is no way the Switch can take the top spot.
If we get one of the two other cases, then it's going to be a close battle to the end.
Low peak, strong hold: This is probably what will happen if Nintendo doesn't manufacture enough and a lot of shipments spill over to the following FY. Imagine something like 24m this year and 22m next year. That's a pretty low YoY drop, and then we'll just have to keep collecting data and it will be close until the end.
High peak, big drop: This is a very likely scenario. Something like 30m this FY and 20m next FY. This means COVID gave Switch a huge boost, but 20m at the end of March 2022 is still a solid number, since this is close to shipments from the March 2020 FY. Total would be 106m at that point, and then we'd have to carefully watch the legs, because it's going to be close. 25% drops would be close to 15m, 11m, 8m with another 20-30m after that. Total 160m-170m. On the other hand 40% drops would be more like 12m, 7m and then 15-25m after that which totals. 140m-150m.
In this last case you can see that 25% drops put it just above the record while 40% drops put it just below the record. So in this situation it very much comes down to how well Switch can leg it out. Low peak, strong hold is not much diffferent. But if we get one of the first two scenarios, then the data will be pretty conclusive about whether or not Switch will break the record.
curl-6 bet me that PS5 + X|S sales would reach 56m before year end 2023 and he was right.
My Bet With curl-6
My Threads:
Master Thread, Game of the Year/Decade
Switch Will Be #1 All Time
Zelda Will Outsell Mario (Achieved)
How Much Will MH Rise sell?
My Bet With Metallox