I agree completely.

Switch, like every previous Nintendo platform, will not be dependant on the support of AAA multiplats.

The type of 3rd party support that Switch currently gets and will continue to get are small-medium sized indie games, Japanese games, kid/family games & previous gen ports/remasters.

These type of games do not require massive budgets or a ton of power so Nintendo really is not at a huge risk of losing this type of support.

Basically any AAA multiplats that do come to Switch are just an added bonus.

I do expect Switch to have a successor out by 2025 but it wont be because Switch is outdated, it will be because it has reached market saturation and the need for a new revenue stream.

Ah I see.

That will all come down to how Nintendo manages said revisions, price cuts, first party software, etc. for the console to have a long tail with healthy enough revenue in those years. As well as, all the diversifying they have been putting into motion for many years now (Amiibo, Merchandise, Theme Parks, Mobile Games, Movie Licensing, etc.) finally being in full swing also being a healthy revenue stream.

Everything in place so far seems to be able to support the Nintendo Switch having a much longer cycle.

It will be all down to execution and choice on Nintendo's part.

Absolutely and who knows, maybe Nintendo will ditch the idea of traditional generations altogether and just continue making upgraded versions every few years.

Kinda a middle ground between the 5-7 year console cycle and the 1-2 year cycle of phones/tablets so a new upgrade every 3-4 years.

Something like

Switch-2017

Switch 2-2021

Switch 3-2025

All Switch 2 games are compatible with Switch 1. All Switch 3 games are compatible with Switch 2 but not Switch 1.

I guess it would be similar to PS4/XBO to Pro/X but instead of a PS5/XB4 they drop support for the original models, make Pro/X the standard edition and release Pro+/XX in the next 3 or so years.

I think Nintendo doesn't give a shit about any of this stuff, what they want to do is maintain a 2-tier hardware system that they enjoy now with Switch as the expensive/high end hardware option and 3DS being the cheap/low-end system.

3DS will have to be retired at some point.

I think you'll see a "new" higher end Switch around 2020, with the current Switch becoming cheaper and taking over the place of the 3DS. They'll continue to maintain the high end/low end model cycling in out new hardware every few years, most games being compatible on both devices at differing settings.

So 2020 I would guess something like

"Switch Model 2" - $299.99 MSRP (sold at a profit), brings in sales from older gamers who have lots of disposable income and like new hardware, makes it easy for Nintendo to avoid declining hardware sales in year 4/5/6 of the old hardware cycle. 

"Switch Model 1" (the current one) - $179.99 MSRP, brings in sales from the kids/budget market. 

Yeah, 2025-2026. before next platform looks too long, but I dont think we will see new platform before 2023. in any case, so that would make life of curent Switch at least around 6-7 years.

Also its big question if Nintendo will release next completely new platform or they will continue with Switch, releasing Switch 2, Switch 3...or will we have just periodic hardware updates on around evre 3-4 years similar to PS4Pro/XbX.

3DS will be long dead before 2020. Nintendo will need 3DS price point replace at end of this or early next year.

That seems more likely.  2023 seems like a closer time when Nintendo would at least announce their next consoles, or rumors of it start to show up. I'm also thinking they may do another more powerful Switch. There's still room for growth on that.

As of Mar 31, 2018 Switch has sold 17.19m units total, which means they are doing fairly well right now.  (I've updated the first post to reflect this.)  Nintendo is projecting 20m units for the next fiscal year.  I don't expect them to make this goal for their next fiscal year, but that is ok, since the Switch sales are going to come back with a vengeance in years 2019 and beyond. 

Nothing to do now but just sit back and see how this generation unfolds.

All-Time Console Sales List:

1) PlayStation 2 (PS2) - 157,680,000* (155,000,000+ according to Sony)

2) Nintendo DS (DS) - 154,900,000* (154,020,000 according to Nintendo)

3) Game Boy (GB/GBC) - 118,690,000

4) PlayStation 4 (PS4) - 112,502,188*** (112,100,000 according to Sony)

5) PlayStation (PS1) - 102,500,000* (102,400,000+ according to Sony)

6) Nintendo Wii (Wii) - 101,640,000* (101,630,000 according to Nintendo)

7) PlayStation 3 (PS3) - 87,410,000* (87,400,000+ according to Sony)

8) Xbox 360 (360) - 85,800,000**

9) Game Boy Advance (GBA) - 81,510,000 

10) PlayStation Portable (PSP) - 81,090,000* (76,400,000+ according to Sony) 

11) Nintendo 3DS (3DS) - 75,770,000*** (75,870,000 according to Nintendo)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

12) Nintendo Switch (NS) - 62,078,875*** (61,440,000 according to Nintendo)

(*) VGChartz estimates
(**) No official numbers from Microsoft as far as I'm aware.
(***) Still selling

I haven't been this invested in a record chase since Barry Bonds' pursuit of Hank Aaron's Home Run record in 2006-2007.