I'm sticking by my expressed opinion I've had for a long time on this: It all depends on when Switch 2 launches. If Switch 2 launches March 2023 (6 years after Switch 1), it won't happen. If they push it back to 7 years after Switch 1 (March 2024) and if, by doing so, they release huge games in great abundance through winter 2023, then I do think it's likely it could beat the DS.
Wii tanked towards the end because software dried up due to them working on Wii U/3DS games. Based on this, if Switch 1 lasts 6 years before Switch 2, I expect only 5 of those years to have the quantity of quality games we expect, whereas the last year will be somewhat dry. But if they push it back to 7 years, that extra year (6 now) of large amounts of quality games will push them over the DS edge I think.
And all this depends on if the rumors of Switch Pro are true and, if so, when it launches. Historically, Nintendo has released a successor device 1.5-2 years after the release of an upgraded current generation device. So, if they were to release the Switch Pro today, that means Switch 2 won't come out until somewhere between 6/16/22 - 12/16/22. Obviously they would have to build hype for the Pro with marketing so they wouldn't shadow release it. If they don't announce the Pro soon and release it within a few months after announcing it, I am convinced that is a sign Nintendo plans on extending Switch 1 life to 7 full years of no competition from Switch 2 and they have huge plans for the second half of Switch 1's life.
