Prediction: The Switch will become the best selling console yet!

[Mnementh]

RolStoppable said:

Mnementh said:

Oh, I calculated already with such an expansion. If everything goes right, Switch could sell 15M in ROW. That is an increase to the 12M of the DS and also beats PS3 and is on a level with PSP. But as I said before: reaching into these markets is not as easy for Nintendo as it is for Sony. If Sony makes a deal with a small local retail-chain, they not only sell Playstation-products through that deal, but also smartphones, TVs, SD-cards and so on. So even with smaller retail-chains/smaller countries such an effort brings more profit. So it will probably not reach the level of the PS2: 25M. That are 10 million sales missing. It sounds not too big in comparison to 100M/150M, but it is certainly something that has to be sold at another area. DS did that.

It is pretty clear that the price will go down. But the same was true for DS and 3DS. If starting on a higher pricepoint, do you expect the price of the Switch to dip as low as for DS? Probably not. So price will prohibit some households from buying multiple devices. How many? I can't really say, hard to know without market research. Past data from the DS is probably also pretty useless, as households may have different budgets now than they had 10 years ago.

Maybe. If we see such designs I will appreciate it and modify my prediction. I didn't say 150M are impossible, I said it is unlikely. If Nintendo releases more mobile Switches that will increase the likelyhood. But we can't know for sure.

By the way, non detachable Joy-Cons are worse for the system as always docked/never docked models. I realized how important it is to have detachable Joy-Cons for different gameplay-options. Labo just showed another one. This is the most important feature of Switch, even above the hybrid nature.

Yeah, I don't know if that has influence. Probably not. I was on a roll with my post and added that as I could see the possibility. That probably has not much impact. Either late sales (like PS2) or multiple devices per household (as the DS) are key. I can't see really the late sales, so the only chance are multiple purchases per house. The jury is out on that still. The other stuff like ROW makes it just a little more difficult.

Indeed, the DS sold over 150m units, so such sales levels aren't uncharted territory for Nintendo. It's not entirely about Rest of the World anyway, because Nintendo still has a lot of work left to do in Eastern Europe.

Everything is more expensive nowadays (that's what inflation does), so if Switch can't get below $150, it won't be a real issue. At that point in time it will be the most affordable console on the market, so perception will make such a price less of a problem.

A consumer who is looking for higher mobility won't mind it if they can't play Labo or other Joy-Con-centric games. The hybrid nature of Switch is most certainly more important than the Joy-Cons, because the hybrid nature is the system's name. Regardless, theoretically Nintendo could launch any kind of revision they see a large enough market for.

Well, I agree, except for one thing: hybrid nature isn't more important than the detachable Joycons. For starters: without the detachable Joycons you basically lose the docked mode, as you have no controller in that situation. Or you would have to add a Pro controller to that package.

But there is more. I recently realized that the Wii had the problem that it had no classic controller packed in. The Wiimote was great, but for porting a game with classical control setup, you had to be creative. So the Wii got a lot of exclusives but not too much multiplats. The Switch has a classical controller packed in: the Joycons can be put in the Grip to create a classic controller setup. Therefore 3rd-parties have no problem porting games relying on that input scheme.