By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Gaming - Master analyst, Michael Pachter, predicts that Switch will not sell near Wii.

Dulfite on 06 November 2021
Kakadu18 said:
Dulfite said:

NES 1983

SNES 1990

N64 1996

GC 2001

Wii 2006

Wii U 2012

Switch 2017

Some had short windows of 5 or less years, but on average about 6 year gap between each. However, over the last 4 new generations, that average is closer to 5 between each gen, including going from the highly successful Wii to the Wii U.

This is one of the many reasons I think Nintendo releasing in 2024 or later would be uncharacteristic of them, seeing as that would be 7+ years later and they historically do 6 year cycles and lately closer to 5 year cycles.

You ignore the handhelds.

GB 1989

GBA 2001

NDS 2004

3DS 2011

With the exception of the GBA they all had a longer life than 6 years. The 3DS was actively supported until 2019 even. Their average with that is over 6 years.

Again appart from the GBA the length of their consoles often depends on it's success and the ones with a shorter than 6 years life were always low sellers.

I just find the mindset weird that some of the earlier posts in this thread shared, that all Nintendo systems have a 5 year life and therefore the Switch's life would also be 5 years.

Ignoring the GB Color is not a good thing to do. GBC could play hundreds of games the original Gameboy could not. It was its own generation based on that standard alone. It wasn't a New 3ds level upgrade with a few exclusives, literally hundreds of exclusives.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Game_Boy_Color_games

Sort by asc/dsc and you will see how many games were not Dual Mode compatible. GBC was its own generation, regardless of how Nintendo likes to label it (they join them up to make it look like they sold more, just like they will probably do years from now with Wii/Wii U).

Also, support doesn't mean much when the games are few and far between and heavily focusing (at least first party-wise) on "remasters" like the M&L ports of the DS games.



Around the Network
KLXVER on 06 November 2021
Zippy6 said:
Kakadu18 said:

Why do so many people think every Nintendo console only has a life span of 5 years?

n64 - 1996 (5 years)
GC - 2001 (5 years)
Wii - 2006 (6 years)
WiiU - 2012 (5 years)
Switch - 2017

This is probably why.

But boiling it down to "must sell X for 5 years" is a very dumb way of looking at it.

The WiiU had less than 5 years. November 2012 to March 2017.



Dulfite on 06 November 2021
RolStoppable said:
Dulfite said:

Ignoring the GB Color is not a good thing to do. GBC could play hundreds of games the original Gameboy could not. It was its own generation based on that standard alone. It wasn't a New 3ds level upgrade with a few exclusives, literally hundreds of exclusives.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Game_Boy_Color_games

Sort by asc/dsc and you will see how many games were not Dual Mode compatible. GBC was its own generation, regardless of how Nintendo likes to label it (they join them up to make it look like they sold more, just like they will probably do years from now with Wii/Wii U).

Also, support doesn't mean much when the games are few and far between and heavily focusing (at least first party-wise) on "remasters" like the M&L ports of the DS games.

Even if we went with your interpretation that the GBC were its own generation, that still wouldn't support your original point. It's also curious that you think of yourself as a big Nintendo fan while simultaneously attempting to defend the cherry-picked argumentation of non-Nintendo fans.

The reason why Nintendo counts the GBC towards the GB total is that the GBC is a revision. The DSi is a revision of the DS despite having hundreds of exclusive games that aren't playable on the DS. Whether something is a revision or a new generation is already defined before launch, so it's not rocket science what is what.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_DSiWare_games_and_applications

A lowly motivation such as counting the GB and GBC together to make it look like the GB sold more makes no sense when at that point in time (late 1998) the GB was the best-selling console of all-time (70m+) and had already completely obliterated its competitors who had bowed out of the market. Nintendo will never combine the Wii and Wii U because they are two different generations; that you even suggested this possibility demonstrates your lack of understanding of how all of this works.

I've had this discussion before with others. The DSI exclusives we're almost entirely shovelware, extremely low budget applications and games. There is no comparison between the quality and budget of those games to the GBC games. DSI was a revision, GBC was not.

Also, you should see how much money I spend on Nintendo first party a year, how many hours I play of their games a year, and my overall rankings of their games over the span of my gaming days. I absolutely adore the company and their games. I was even a shareholder until very recently.

If your on top, there is motivation to keep climbing to set a record. 

And just because you disagree with my prediction about Wii/Wii U doesn't mean you have to stoop to the level of insulting my ability to comprehend "how this all works." Why do so many conversations on this website turn into someone insulting the intelligence of another person? Why can't you simply disagree with me and leave it at that?



Mnementh on 06 November 2021
Shadow1980 said:

At the time, the idea that the Switch might not hit 100M seemed perfectly reasonable. Nintendo's Gen 7 successes seemed like flukes, considering they didn't replicate them with the Wii U & 3DS. Also, this was 2017, when the Switch was only a few months old, long before certain unforeseen circumstances-that-we're-not-going-to-discuss propelled it to new and unexpected heights. Back in mid 2017, hardly anyone though the Switch would outsell not just the Wii by a comfortable margin, but the PS4 as well. The Switch wasn't selling anywhere close to Wii-level numbers in the U.S., and though it was doing better than any other Nintendo home system in Japan, it was about on par with the 3DS. Given those observations, sub-100M sales was a very plausible estimate for someone to make.

Still, 50M seems really pessimistic considering that the Switch was doing good enough in 2017 to where 70M or so would seem a reasonable lower-end projection. It was still doing at least 3DS-level sales, so it seems a stretch to think the Switch would sell considerably less than the 3DS. The oldest prediction of mine I could find was in May 2017, where I thought it could "potentially" reach 90-95M.

Pachter's prediction reminds me the analysts who back in 2007-08 predicted the 360 would stagnate and end up selling less than 50M lifetime while the PS3 would blow past it and eventually become the #1 system of Gen 7. Such a prediction might have made sense back in 2005 before Gen 7 was underway, but not so much when were were already well into that generation and the 360 was doing very well for itself, especially in North America, while the PS3 saw Sony lose a lot of market share. Someone actually parodied those projections like so:

Actually Switch synced up with PS4 pretty early on and was on track to sell similarly. You could argue that Playstation systems had historically more longevity than than Nintendo systems (although this time PS4 is coming to a hard stop), but still 100M were plausible after some months of sales.

The boost in 2020 may have been unpredictable, but even before that Switch was clearly a success.

Last edited by Mnementh - on 06 November 2021

3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

JWeinCom on 06 November 2021
Shadow1980 said:

At the time, the idea that the Switch might not hit 100M seemed perfectly reasonable. Nintendo's Gen 7 successes seemed like flukes, considering they didn't replicate them with the Wii U & 3DS. Also, this was 2017, when the Switch was only a few months old, long before certain unforeseen circumstances-that-we're-not-going-to-discuss propelled it to new and unexpected heights. Back in mid 2017, hardly anyone though the Switch would outsell not just the Wii by a comfortable margin, but the PS4 as well. The Switch wasn't selling anywhere close to Wii-level numbers in the U.S., and though it was doing better than any other Nintendo home system in Japan, it was about on par with the 3DS. Given those observations, sub-100M sales was a very plausible estimate for someone to make.

Still, 50M seems really pessimistic considering that the Switch was doing good enough in 2017 to where 70M or so would seem a reasonable lower-end projection. It was still doing at least 3DS-level sales, so it seems a stretch to think the Switch would sell considerably less than the 3DS. The oldest prediction of mine I could find was in May 2017, where I thought it could "potentially" reach 90-95M.

Pachter's prediction reminds me the analysts who back in 2007-08 predicted the 360 would stagnate and end up selling less than 50M lifetime while the PS3 would blow past it and eventually become the #1 system of Gen 7. Such a prediction might have made sense back in 2005 before Gen 7 was underway, but not so much when were were already well into that generation and the 360 was doing very well for itself, especially in North America, while the PS3 saw Sony lose a lot of market share. Someone actually parodied those projections like so:

To be honest, I probably wouldn't have thought the Switch would sell 100 million at that point either. The key difference though is that nobody is paying me to give my projections, and websites take no notice when I make one.



Around the Network
Wman1996 on 06 November 2021

It really wasn't a crazy prediction. Switch was tough to predict.

The GameCube and Wii U showed that Nintendo hardware can fail to make as large an impact as they want.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 161 million (was 73 million, then 96 million, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million, then 151 million, then 156 million)

PS5: 122 million (was 105 million, then 115 million) Xbox Series X/S: 38 million (was 60 million, then 67 million, then 57 million. then 48 million. then 40 million)

Switch 2: 120 million (was 116 million)

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

curl-6 on 06 November 2021
VAMatt said:

I'll bet $50 to charity that Switch will not outsell the Wii. Any takers?

I'll take that bet.



Yassgragra on 06 November 2021

This aged like milk.



Agente42 on 07 November 2021
Wman1996 said:

It really wasn't a crazy prediction. Switch was tough to predict.

The GameCube and Wii U showed that Nintendo hardware can fail to make as large an impact as they want.

It´s portable myopia. Nintendo NEVER loses in the portable realm, the worst portable handheld is 3ds and 3ds was an initial disaster.  It´s a feat neither sony achievement, be unbeatable in one segment at all. Nintendo will reunite the portable and stationary output how this is gonna another Wiiu or GameCube, if neither of two has one Pokemon Game and suffers from the long drought of games.  

Maybe not at the scale this success, but switch have a bare minimum  and this minimum was a floor with 3DS+Wiiu+ some market of vita.

T



Agente42 on 07 November 2021
Kakadu18 said:
Dulfite said:

NES 1983

SNES 1990

N64 1996

GC 2001

Wii 2006

Wii U 2012

Switch 2017

Some had short windows of 5 or less years, but on average about 6 year gap between each. However, over the last 4 new generations, that average is closer to 5 between each gen, including going from the highly successful Wii to the Wii U.

This is one of the many reasons I think Nintendo releasing in 2024 or later would be uncharacteristic of them, seeing as that would be 7+ years later and they historically do 6 year cycles and lately closer to 5 year cycles.

You ignore the handhelds.

GB 1989

GBA 2001

NDS 2004

3DS 2011

With the exception of the GBA they all had a longer life than 6 years. The 3DS was actively supported until 2019 even. Their average with that is over 6 years.

Again appart from the GBA the length of their consoles often depends on it's success and the ones with a shorter than 6 years life were always low sellers.

I just find the mindset weird that some of the earlier posts in this thread shared, that all Nintendo systems have a 5 year life and therefore the Switch's life would also be 5 years.

I hate Malstrom's political view, but in some Nintendo analysts, he is far on point and has some good argumentation and good prediction too. 

The Myopia of Generations and Handheld Blindness