Master analyst, Michael Pachter, predicts that Switch will not sell near Wii.

[Agente42]

Kakadu18 said:

Dulfite said:

NES 1983

SNES 1990

N64 1996

GC 2001

Wii 2006

Wii U 2012

Switch 2017

Some had short windows of 5 or less years, but on average about 6 year gap between each. However, over the last 4 new generations, that average is closer to 5 between each gen, including going from the highly successful Wii to the Wii U.

This is one of the many reasons I think Nintendo releasing in 2024 or later would be uncharacteristic of them, seeing as that would be 7+ years later and they historically do 6 year cycles and lately closer to 5 year cycles.

You ignore the handhelds.

GB 1989

GBA 2001

NDS 2004

3DS 2011

With the exception of the GBA they all had a longer life than 6 years. The 3DS was actively supported until 2019 even. Their average with that is over 6 years.

Again appart from the GBA the length of their consoles often depends on it's success and the ones with a shorter than 6 years life were always low sellers.

I just find the mindset weird that some of the earlier posts in this thread shared, that all Nintendo systems have a 5 year life and therefore the Switch's life would also be 5 years.

I hate Malstrom's political view, but in some Nintendo analysts, he is far on point and has some good argumentation and good prediction too. 

The Myopia of Generations and Handheld Blindness