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Forums - Sales Discussion - The Nintendo Switch will sell less than the Wii U...

 

Will it sell less than the Wii U?

Yes. This thing is looking to be a flop 133 17.85%
 
No, but it'll still sell like shit 229 30.74%
 
No, it'll sell very well... 323 43.36%
 
It'll outsell the PS4 an... 60 8.05%
 
Total:745

It will sell OK. Hell of a lot more than the Wii u but less than the 3ds



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ICStats said:
Pyro as Bill said:

Handheld tie ratios are ~half of home console's.

Handheld games are ~66% cost of home console's.

$60 x 10m = $600M

$40 x 5m = $200M

Nintendo could have the same software revenues as 3DS+WiiU with only 40-50m Switch consoles sold (25-35m replace 3DS, 15m to replace WiiU). Hardware prices look like they could be cut without making a loss. 3DS and WiiU don't have subscription revenue.

The 3DS tie ratio is closer to 70% of Wii U.

Handheld games cost less, but also take less development cost than console.

WiiU's a freak. SMB/3D Mario/Smash/Kart have sold 22m on WiiU v 41m on 3DS with less than 1/4 userbase. $1.3bn v $1.6bn revenue (assuming $60/$40). If Nintendo had 1m WiiU owners paying a $60/yr sub for 5yrs they'd have the $300m shortfall. 

Switch software might sell like portable, I was just pointing out that it doesn't have to sell better than home+portable combined to be more succesful for Nintendo.



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barneystinson69 said:
RolStoppable said:

GameCube and Wii U are the two Nintendo systems that were the closest to the desired industry standards.

What? Those two where definently trying their own thing. The GC will their silly disk format and lunchbox look, and wii u with the tablet. This is just a glorified nvidia shield.

Gamecube was similar to PS2/Xbox and was designed with the purpose of regaining 3rd party support by getting multiplatform titles.

One of the main goals of Wii U was to regain multiplatform support by creating a system that was similar to PS3/360 and get ports.

Nintendo does worst when they go out of their way to get mulitplats.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

invetedlotus123 said:
I thought it would be bad too, but once I saw the JoyCon functionalities, I just changed my bets. JoyCon is a true successor to the wii mote. And remember, what made Wii great was the Wii-Mote, now JoyCon is like a very, very, very improved version of WiiMote and much easier too use.

JoyCon has built-in IR Cam, so they can work anywhere and don`t need the IR bar Wii needed in order to work. HD Rumble can also bring some very interesting gaming mechanics if well used, I`m sure Nintendo is going to use it well.

What I think could harm sales initially is the price tag, but again, if public see value they are going to buy it, going for a very low price tag could hurt more than help. I don`t get why people get this idea that price matters so much, people do buy iPhone and other premium smartphones every year or two years, it won`t be a 299 USD price tag that are going to stop it.

I agree Joycons could be very interesting. But! It needs the proper marketing to the right kind of customers. I don't see that so far. The Wiimote didn't sell to the classical gamer, so approaching the classical gamer doesn't cut it. Secondly it also needs the games. The Wiimote had Wii Sports and then fast more interesting games for it like Wii Play and stuff like that. So far I see 1-2-Switch (and I'm unsure yet how is the extend of that) and Arms that are targeted at the features of the Joycons. Let's see how that turns out.

Thinking about that - Nintendo should do a remake of Wii Sports Resort for the Joycons, maybe with some added sports and some more features targeted at the new rumble and so on. That would be a pretty good showcase.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

Come on, that's silly. I wouldn't be surprised if it sells less than the 3DS though.



                
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ICStats said:
No, but it'll still sell like shit.

It may sell more than Wii U while cannibalizing the 3DS business. Overall Nintendo's revenues will be in ruins.

That might happen. It all depends on how much Nintendo can attract unusual gamers, like they did with the Wii and the DS. The Joycons clearly give sort of a Wiimote vibe, but it still needs proper marketing and games. I'll wait and see how that turns out.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

barneystinson69 said:
RolStoppable said:

Out of all issues that a console can have, price is the easiest one to correct. It's a given that price will eventually go down and that SKUs with a bundled game will be offered.

It would be better if the switch was simply a portable console without a dock. They could sell it for $199 easily, and add the dock as an accessory. The XB1 and PS4 are in the same price range, have far more games, are far more known to the public, and have better online services and better specs. Very uphill batttle for the Switch. Thats why I said if Nintendo drops the price early on (and maybe their online thing as well), they'll do far better. You can ever read the OP yourself.

I doubt the dock adds $100 to the price. More like $20. The main Switch-unit and the Joycons are adding to the price.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

I see logic doesn't exist in these forums, considering it doesn't take much thinking to realize that the 3ds level of software minimum that the switch will receive will mean success. Couple that with far more positive reception from consumers and developers, and strong titles being showcased.



Nem said:
Doesn't have Miiverse either. One of the good things about the Wii U. The communities were pretty good. Especially during E3.

Yeah, dropping Miiverse is a strange decision, after they built it so successfully.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

The Switch has an appeal only for hardcore Ninteno gamers at the current price point and with the current library. No one is paying Nintendo for online without the justifiable third party multiplatform titles. Nintendo should not force people to pay online for their multiplayer games. People are better off playing that on the couch in parties. They are lost in their own little world even though I love the switches look.

The long term investment for anyone who invites friends over and wants extra parts for the switch easily will pay out five hundred dollars. Theres no way to justify that compared to the Xbox One and PS4.