The Nintendo Switch will sell less than the Wii U...

[Pyro as Bill]

ICStats said:

Pyro as Bill said:

Handheld tie ratios are ~half of home console's.

Handheld games are ~66% cost of home console's.

$60 x 10m = $600M

$40 x 5m = $200M

Nintendo could have the same software revenues as 3DS+WiiU with only 40-50m Switch consoles sold (25-35m replace 3DS, 15m to replace WiiU). Hardware prices look like they could be cut without making a loss. 3DS and WiiU don't have subscription revenue.

The 3DS tie ratio is closer to 70% of Wii U.

Handheld games cost less, but also take less development cost than console.

WiiU's a freak. SMB/3D Mario/Smash/Kart have sold 22m on WiiU v 41m on 3DS with less than 1/4 userbase. $1.3bn v $1.6bn revenue (assuming $60/$40). If Nintendo had 1m WiiU owners paying a $60/yr sub for 5yrs they'd have the $300m shortfall. 

Switch software might sell like portable, I was just pointing out that it doesn't have to sell better than home+portable combined to be more succesful for Nintendo.