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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4 and XBO have already break the Peak?

 

When XBO/PS4 will break the peak?

2014 1 11.11%
 
2015 2 22.22%
 
2016 3 33.33%
 
2017 0 0%
 
after 3 33.33%
 
Total:9

deff not, no heavy hitter games have been released yet



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teigaga said:

No, both will be up this year theres no question. Just look at the software we're about to recieve and the baseline's we're at. Comparably last year software was very weak, the systems sold off hype for the first 6 months. Jan might be down a bit for PS4 but thats expected.

Vita peaking in launch year coincided directly with the amount of big games it received. Uncharted, Gravity Rush, Little Big Planet, Persona 4, Assassins Creed Unity, COD...

2016 will likely be the peak year for both systems assuming they get a price cut and the software line up is at least on par with 2015. In comparison to previous generations that would still equate to a slight more front loaded peak. 

WAIT! WHAT?

OT: I think that 2015 will be the peak year for all home consoles, so I agree with you.



To be hnest I can see both PS4 and XBO down yoy in 2015. However I think 2016 will be significantly up compared to 2014 and 2017 will be the peak with both of them phasing out in 2019-2020. Yup I think year 4 will be the peak or at least flat with 2016(thus making 2016 the Peak)



      
Yup...RO friggin rocked  
itsFizz said:
To be hnest I can see both PS4 and XBO down yoy in 2015. However I think 2016 will be significantly up compared to 2014 and 2017 will be the peak with both of them phasing out in 2019-2020. Yup I think year 4 will be the peak or at least flat with 2016(thus making 2016 the Peak)

15 will be a growth year, Jan feb might be a bit slower sincle last year had post launch hype still driving sales.

But when Games kick in hard, ill be different.  Plus this will be the year of Halo5 Uncharted4 MGS5, ill be higher sales through software.  Not even counting on potential price cuts.  Which should easily drive 2015 past 2014 sales.



No, I don't think they've hit their peaks yet. Typically, a system doesn't peak until its second or third full calendar year (the second being the most common) and in such cases is almost always due to the issuing of a price cut. The only major system released in the past five generations to go more than two years before getting its first price cut is the Wii (which is also one of the few systems to grow without the issuance of a price cut, though that could be due to constrained supply in 2007), so in all likelihood, the PS4 will get its first price cut some time this year, and when it does its sales should experience a significant increase, perhaps upwards of 40% YoY. The PS2 saw a nearly 40% YoY jump in the U.S. in 2002 over 2001, which was spurred by the price cut it received in May '02.

Similarly, the XBO has already received a price cut, and if it stays at $350 for the rest of the year its sales could end up being up YoY. I think it'll be up 20-30% due to the lower price and the addition of new markets later last year (though those markets are a small portion of global XBO sales, especially Japan where the XBO sold less than 300 units last week). I don't think it'll grow at the same rate as the PS4 as it appears that even at a lower price the XBO struggles against the PS4 outside of the holidays even in its best markets, and if the PS4 drops to $300 (a definite possibility) then it's really going to reduce MS's market share. It's obvious that most consumers regard the PS4 as the more attractive product overall, with the XBO's price being the only major thing it really has going for it at the moment. The PS4 matching it in price again will be bad enough for the XBO's market share, but if it drops below the XBO it could seriously stymie the XBO's sales growth, especially if MS ends up being hesitant to drop the system to $300 so soon and potentially hurting its profitability.

Overall, there's still plenty of room to grow for the PS4 & XBO, and I don't think we've seen their peaks yet. They will peak either this year or next year.



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Ryng_Tolu said:
Captain_Tom said:

The 3DS is its own thing with its own problems (Competition from mobile etc).  I expect the PS4 to sell 20-24m this year, and then 18-22m next year.  I don't think they will fall off a cliff that until the PS5 is out.  Keep in mind they still have the $300 and $200 price points to come.

As for the Xbox One, yeah I think it will start dropping off quicker in 2016, but follow a similar trend to the PS4.

24m are insanity... for sell this number's it must sell like the Wii in 2008, so 400k-600k all NPD (2m-3m during the Holiday) and 40k all week in Japan.

JUST NO.

20m isn't impossible, but as i said, Hart 50% increase for PS4.


Hey shipped nearly 20m in the first full year and it had half the line up of 2015 (At best).



Captain_Tom said:
Ryng_Tolu said:

24m are insanity... for sell this number's it must sell like the Wii in 2008, so 400k-600k all NPD (2m-3m during the Holiday) and 40k all week in Japan.

JUST NO.

20m isn't impossible, but as i said, Hart 50% increase for PS4.


Hey shipped nearly 20m in the first full year and it had half the line up of 2015 (At best).

2013+2014

2014 only was 14.3m

For sell 20m it must have 40% Boost (PS3 and PS2 30%) and 70% for 24m.

I See +20% this year, so 17.5m in 2015.



XB1 will perform better during the regular year but be down this holiday. It won't be much better, and overall it will probably only raise a little if any. Anyway, I highly doubt PS4 would've peaked yet considering that the price is the same as launch, there's really been no killer exclusives, no huge bundles, and even 3rd party games haven't gone all out yet. XB1 I could see peaking before, but there's a chance it hasn't



XBOX ONE/Wii U/3DS/PC

RIP Iwata 12/6/1959-7/11/2015

Thanks for all the great memories!

I think the One and PS4 will both peak either next year or the year after, if 2016 is the peak year; it'll be only a slight bit better than 2015 (as in 5-7%, is my guess).

You're right that the market has changed but the Wii U, 3DS and Vita can't be used as the template for the One and PS4's sales curve due to a multitude of factors, I'll name the most important ones:

1: Handheld consoles have taken a massive hit from smart devices, I said in 2011 that dedicated handhelds would be all but gone within 3-5 years, if current trends continue; there really won't be much left by 2016.

2: The Wii U is an extremely flawed product from the beginning; it was designed at its very core to appeal to both casual and hardcore gamers but if failed utterly on both accounts and it basically has no demographic beyond Nintendo die-hard's and forum goers such as ourselves.

3: While Japan is going down as a major home console market; the West is either growing or staying flat in most regions so there is plenty of market left to keep the PS4 and One floating for a few years.

4: There really is not an iota of data to suggest that the One and PS4 have had their peak years in their first full year on the market (the PS4 wasn't even available in all major markets until late February last year), especially the One is set to have a decent yoy growth rate due its rather lackluster performance last year (the first half in particular) and there is no reason to think the PS4 will be down from 2014's number seeing the release schedule and a possible price cut on the horizon (Q4, most likely).

5: As a sort of combo of the above; the PS4 and One simply cannot be compared to neither the Vita nor the 3DS and Wii U, they have completely different demographics and outlooks and are soundly backed by the entire Western gaming industry, which cannot be said for the other three you mentioned. The 3DS has had some massive Japanese software hits but Nintendo have been grossly out of touch with the Western markets for a long time now and their 1st party fare has done little to help their handheld and their home console in these markets and there simply is no significant support in the Wii U's case. The Vita was quite simply DOA (and the proud owner of the most ironic name a console was ever given).



Well the start of this year isn't super bright but I believe 2016 will be peak year for PS4/X1, then they will drop of quite fast I think. This year will most likely see healthy growth though.