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Mummelmann on 07 February 2015
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I think the One and PS4 will both peak either next year or the year after, if 2016 is the peak year; it'll be only a slight bit better than 2015 (as in 5-7%, is my guess).

You're right that the market has changed but the Wii U, 3DS and Vita can't be used as the template for the One and PS4's sales curve due to a multitude of factors, I'll name the most important ones:

1: Handheld consoles have taken a massive hit from smart devices, I said in 2011 that dedicated handhelds would be all but gone within 3-5 years, if current trends continue; there really won't be much left by 2016.

2: The Wii U is an extremely flawed product from the beginning; it was designed at its very core to appeal to both casual and hardcore gamers but if failed utterly on both accounts and it basically has no demographic beyond Nintendo die-hard's and forum goers such as ourselves.

3: While Japan is going down as a major home console market; the West is either growing or staying flat in most regions so there is plenty of market left to keep the PS4 and One floating for a few years.

4: There really is not an iota of data to suggest that the One and PS4 have had their peak years in their first full year on the market (the PS4 wasn't even available in all major markets until late February last year), especially the One is set to have a decent yoy growth rate due its rather lackluster performance last year (the first half in particular) and there is no reason to think the PS4 will be down from 2014's number seeing the release schedule and a possible price cut on the horizon (Q4, most likely).

5: As a sort of combo of the above; the PS4 and One simply cannot be compared to neither the Vita nor the 3DS and Wii U, they have completely different demographics and outlooks and are soundly backed by the entire Western gaming industry, which cannot be said for the other three you mentioned. The 3DS has had some massive Japanese software hits but Nintendo have been grossly out of touch with the Western markets for a long time now and their 1st party fare has done little to help their handheld and their home console in these markets and there simply is no significant support in the Wii U's case. The Vita was quite simply DOA (and the proud owner of the most ironic name a console was ever given).