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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4 and XBO have already break the Peak?

 

When XBO/PS4 will break the peak?

2014 1 11.11%
 
2015 2 22.22%
 
2016 3 33.33%
 
2017 0 0%
 
after 3 33.33%
 
Total:9
sidmeiernintifan said:
no


the people who love COD, Fifa, Ass Creed probably already have a PS4. Many people who buy consoles for GTA probably don't own a PS4 yet because they didn't feel the need to buy a console for a remaster.

  • COD:AW- PS4+XB1 = 10M, PS3+360= 7M
  • FIFA- PS4 + XB1 = 7M, PS3+360= 6M
No, the people that love those franchises haven't all moved on to the next gen yet. 


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There is very little chance that PS4 has had its peak year at full price. I am guessing at small increases the next two years, around 10% like the Wii U. Although I don't think it has peaked, I am not expecting massive increases at any point.



celador said:
There is very little chance that PS4 has had its peak year at full price. I am guessing at small increases the next two years, around 10% like the Wii U. Although I don't think it has peaked, I am not expecting massive increases at any point.

I agree with you. Even for me PS4 and XBO will be up, i said +5% XBO and +20% PS4.

The point is that much people expect a 50%-70% Boost for both PS4 and XBO!!!

20m PS4 and 10m XBO in 2015!? Nope, just nope...



Ryng_Tolu said:
celador said:
There is very little chance that PS4 has had its peak year at full price. I am guessing at small increases the next two years, around 10% like the Wii U. Although I don't think it has peaked, I am not expecting massive increases at any point.

I agree with you. Even for me PS4 and XBO will be up, i said +5% XBO and +20% PS4.

The point is that much people expect a 50%-70% Boost for both PS4 and XBO!!!

20m PS4 and 10m XBO in 2015!? Nope, just nope...


I agree.

Peak or not?  who knows.

But they will be more front loaded than the last gen which could mean you are right.



I'm not really here!


kowenicki said:
Ryng_Tolu said:

I agree with you. Even for me PS4 and XBO will be up, i said +5% XBO and +20% PS4.

The point is that much people expect a 50%-70% Boost for both PS4 and XBO!!!

20m PS4 and 10m XBO in 2015!? Nope, just nope...


I agree.

Peak or not?  who knows.

But they will be more front loaded than the last gen which could mean you are right.

Well, i think that NOW the people have underdtand the sense of this thread.



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Ryng_Tolu said:
Captain_Tom said:
This year is the peak year. I agree that generations (including this one) will be more front-loaded than before, but not to the degree you think.

Even for me 2015 is the Peak.

But I expect a seriusly smaller increase for PS4 and XBO and that the sales will dropped like a rock in 2016-2017. (As is happen for 3ds)

SPECIALLY XBOX ONE.

The 3DS is its own thing with its own problems (Competition from mobile etc).  I expect the PS4 to sell 20-24m this year, and then 18-22m next year.  I don't think they will fall off a cliff that until the PS5 is out.  Keep in mind they still have the $300 and $200 price points to come.

As for the Xbox One, yeah I think it will start dropping off quicker in 2016, but follow a similar trend to the PS4.



lol some of you.

399 and no major PS franchises out yet, and PS4 sales wont grow much sure sure lol.



Captain_Tom said:
Ryng_Tolu said:

Even for me 2015 is the Peak.

But I expect a seriusly smaller increase for PS4 and XBO and that the sales will dropped like a rock in 2016-2017. (As is happen for 3ds)

SPECIALLY XBOX ONE.

The 3DS is its own thing with its own problems (Competition from mobile etc).  I expect the PS4 to sell 20-24m this year, and then 18-22m next year.  I don't think they will fall off a cliff that until the PS5 is out.  Keep in mind they still have the $300 and $200 price points to come.

As for the Xbox One, yeah I think it will start dropping off quicker in 2016, but follow a similar trend to the PS4.

24m are insanity... for sell this number's it must sell like the Wii in 2008, so 400k-600k all NPD (2m-3m during the Holiday) and 40k all week in Japan.

JUST NO.

20m isn't impossible, but as i said, Hart 50% increase for PS4.



Ryng_Tolu said:

24m are insanity... for sell this number's it must sell like the Wii in 2008, so 400k-600k all NPD (2m-3m during the Holiday) and 40k all week in Japan.

JUST NO.

20m isn't impossible, but as i said, Hart 50% increase for PS4.


Price cut games and marketing, nothing hard about it.  Add a few more markets going live.

What you think 299 or 199 wont drive sale a hell of a lot ?  



It's hard to imagine what would give this gen the same kind of second wind as the last.

360 had a breakthrough peripheral in the Kinect, and the PS3 finally became affordable late in it's lifecycle. Xbone and Ps4 are pretty good as they are now. No big improvements to be made, therefore no big boosts late in the lifecycle.



I predict NX launches in 2017 - not 2016