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Forums - Sales Discussion - PREDICTION: Destiny will sell 15+ million (across all platforms).

Chris Hu on 16 June 2014
VXIII said:
sales2099 said:
Activision said it has to sell 15 million at full price to break even. Big goal.


Activision  didn't say that, analysts did. 

" Analysts said $500 million would likely be a record spent on a single game - especially one without an established track record. To break even, Activision would have to sell about 15 million to 16 million units of a $60 game "

Activision  did announce the 500M budget though.

Since the majority of that budget will be spend on advertising like with all Activision FPS.  I'm surprised that there aren't already a mega ton of online adds for the game.



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bubblegamer on 16 June 2014

Why are people saying this game costs 500 million dollars to make? Activision said the 500 million is an estimation, so yes they could go over it, but it's meant for 3 games and 4 expansions in the Destiny universe not just the first game!!



VXIII on 16 June 2014
Chris Hu said:
VXIII said:

Activision  didn't say that, analysts did. 

" Analysts said $500 million would likely be a record spent on a single game - especially one without an established track record. To break even, Activision would have to sell about 15 million to 16 million units of a $60 game "

Activision  did announce the 500M budget though.

Since the majority of that budget will be spend on advertising like with all Activision FPS.  I'm surprised that there aren't already a mega ton of online adds for the game.

Activision will probably keep advertising the game throughout the holidays season, mainly in the U.S of course. Don't worry, when the time comes, you probably won't be able to look around without seeing an add for it somehow.



Chris Hu on 16 June 2014
bubblegamer said:
Why are people saying this game costs 500 million dollars to make? Activision said the 500 million is an estimation, so yes they could go over it, but it's meant for 3 games and 4 expansions in the Destiny universe not just the first game!!


Most of that money will be spend on advertising anyway like with all Activion FPS.  That is why the game really doesn't look that good.  If they really would spend $500 million on the development of 3 games then you would have three games that potentially be better and grander in scope then GTA 5.



OfficerRaichu15 on 16 June 2014

im actually starting to think itll destroy watch dogs fw sales :P

6 million fw my prediction



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kitler53 on 16 June 2014
OttoniBastos said:

15 million is a flop!

Even if it sells 15 million copies at $60 each(which is kind of a dream lets faced) we need to cut the console royalties,publisher royalties+taxes+retailers profit for each copy.

In the end,15m would barely pay the 500m budget.


some things to consider:

  1. 15M copies is almost a billion at retail.  not all of that is activisions but around half probably is.
  2. that $500M was from a CEO remark that I would suggest isn't a very exact figure.
  3. there will be 2-3 $20 expansion packs sure as rain is wet.
  4. sony's exclusive marketing and early alpha access and bundle didn't come for free.  no idea what sony spent but i'll bet it is no less than $10M.  sony will be getting a huge boost to ps+ subscriptions so i'm sure they were willing to invest a lot for this deal.
  5. sequels will be much cheaper and i do believe activsion is viewing this as a long term investment.

 

OT - 15M is a big number.  i wouldn't call it a sure thing but i wouldn't say it is unreasonable either.



hunter_alien on 16 June 2014

After seeing the warm reception it received from the Alpha, the hype that surrounds it and Activisions marketing power, I doubt it will do under 20 million LT Crows will be served...

It will be the biggest system seller of the year, mark my word



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Madword on 16 June 2014
kitler53 said:
OttoniBastos said:

15 million is a flop!

Even if it sells 15 million copies at $60 each(which is kind of a dream lets faced) we need to cut the console royalties,publisher royalties+taxes+retailers profit for each copy.

In the end,15m would barely pay the 500m budget.


some things to consider:

  1. 15M copies is almost a billion at retail.  not all of that is activisions but around half probably is.
  2. that $500M was from a CEO remark that I would suggest isn't a very exact figure.
  3. there will be 2-3 $20 expansion packs sure as rain is wet.
  4. sony's exclusive marketing and early alpha access and bundle didn't come for free.  no idea what sony spent but i'll bet it is no less than $10M.  sony will be getting a huge boost to ps+ subscriptions so i'm sure they were willing to invest a lot for this deal.
  5. sequels will be much cheaper and i do believe activsion is viewing this as a long term investment.

 

OT - 15M is a big number.  i wouldn't call it a sure thing but i wouldn't say it is unreasonable either.

Yeah people keep stating this $500m like its day 1 cost they have to re-coup... it's over the lifetime (i.e server costs, support and patches, staff). I suspect they have at least a 5-10 year plan for this game and are expecting it to be the next WOW type level game, where you need to continue paying staff.

So no they do not need to make $500m day 1 but to pay for it over it's lifetime, it;s what they need to get past (with all the additional stuff) to make a profit. The closer they are day 1 to that figure, the happier they will be, because they will be on course for a massive profit over time.



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bevochan on 16 June 2014

I think Destiny will outsell COD Advanced Warfare lifetime across all platforms combined. The Destiny alpha is really good.