PREDICTION: Destiny will sell 15+ million (across all platforms).

[kitler53]

OttoniBastos said:

15 million is a flop!

Even if it sells 15 million copies at $60 each(which is kind of a dream lets faced) we need to cut the console royalties,publisher royalties+taxes+retailers profit for each copy.

In the end,15m would barely pay the 500m budget.

some things to consider:

1. 15M copies is almost a billion at retail.  not all of that is activisions but around half probably is.
2. that $500M was from a CEO remark that I would suggest isn't a very exact figure.
3. there will be 2-3 $20 expansion packs sure as rain is wet.
4. sony's exclusive marketing and early alpha access and bundle didn't come for free.  no idea what sony spent but i'll bet it is no less than $10M.  sony will be getting a huge boost to ps+ subscriptions so i'm sure they were willing to invest a lot for this deal.
5. sequels will be much cheaper and i do believe activsion is viewing this as a long term investment.

 

OT - 15M is a big number.  i wouldn't call it a sure thing but i wouldn't say it is unreasonable either.