This game will sell at least 10 million copies to recoup the $500 million budget.  After playing the alpha, even though the alpha has some problems such as frame rate judders, this game will very good.  Currently, the PS4 opening week is on pace to open around 1.5 million, but I think it'll match or surpass Watch Dogs PS4 1st week sale, thus I'll predict that Destiny will have 2 million on PS4 in the opening week.  My guess is that Destiny will sell at least 7 million lifetime on the PS4.  For the other platforms lifetime, 5 million on Xbox1, then about 2 million on xbox360 and a little less than 2 million on PS3. 

So yes, this game will NOT flop.

Definitely 10 million.15 I'm not so sure

no more than 4m

also....why is this not in the gaming discussion?

It could very well top 4m in its first week...

15m is too much but 10m should be feasible.

I also expect 2 million first week for PS4, with other platforms combined that should be near 3.5-4m first week.

The white PS4 Destiny bundle will sell a lot.

Heck no. There's no way it will stay under 4 million.

I messed up.  I thought i put this in the gaming discussion and not the Nintendo section...

15 million is a flop!

Even if it sells 15 million copies at $60 each(which is kind of a dream lets faced) we need to cut the console royalties,publisher royalties+taxes+retailers profit for each copy.

In the end,15m would barely pay the 500m budget.

People that were skeptical at first and play the closed alpha now all love the game. The beta will really bring in a lot of new pre-orders.

It's a long term investment Destiny will be a franchise and with the extra DLC it should at least cover a huge part of it.