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This game will sell at least 10 million copies to recoup the $500 million budget.  After playing the alpha, even though the alpha has some problems such as frame rate judders, this game will very good.  Currently, the PS4 opening week is on pace to open around 1.5 million, but I think it'll match or surpass Watch Dogs PS4 1st week sale, thus I'll predict that Destiny will have 2 million on PS4 in the opening week.  My guess is that Destiny will sell at least 7 million lifetime on the PS4.  For the other platforms lifetime, 5 million on Xbox1, then about 2 million on xbox360 and a little less than 2 million on PS3. 

So yes, this game will NOT flop.