The Wii U virtually has no 3rd party support, the mainstream gamer plays 3rd party, those who only play NIntendo games are a minority, the "casuals" that invested in the Wii U last gen have all moved on to other devices.

Just because of Mario Kart, you think all of a sudden Nintendo's games are going to start selling gangbusters?

Smash 4 might outsell Mario Kart 8 lifetime, because of better legs but there is no way its happening this year, Mario Kart has more mainstream appeal then Smash, a meme from MK8 was featured on the news for christ sake, not to mention the 3DS version will definetly take away Wii U sales.

Everything else, will probably fail to outsell 3DWorld let alone Pikmin 3.

In the first 6 months of this year, the Wii U sold 1million give or take, you expect a sustained 700% increase because of Bayonetta, Wii Sports Club, X, and Some secret games? You expect the Wii U to sell more in the next 7 months with competition then the 12 months it was alone on the market + the 5 months up until now? And I have a warped sense of reality?

This is isn't optimism, this is even well thought out. Its as if you decided on the number 7.3 million beforehand, and just filled in the blanks with games and numbers. Hell, you couldn't even completely fill it up so you start adding vague things such as suprise titles, holidays, my god from December alone you gleaned 2.9 million sales from "Holidays + a Big push by Nintendo". You realize that this "Holidays + A Big push by Nintendo alone" would doubletriple the amount of Wii U's sold this previous 6 months and sell a third half of the Wii U's life time total? This period would sell 46 times more than Mario Kart, despite the fact that "Holiday + Big Push by Nintendo" is not a game?

Then when questioned on exactly these vague things are you, defend them by calling them speculation? Your not even basing your speculation on anything observable.

Do you see why your plausible estimation is nonsensical?

In fact, I realize now that I have been addressing this issue incorrectly, instead debating against the games you beleive will have titanfall-esque second coming of jesus type effects when really, I just need to highlight the HUGE FUCKING HOLES in your argument.

The Majority of your estimation is the Wii U selling off of Disney Magic alone, you have Wii Sports Club outselling Bayonetta 2, Hyrule Warriors, X, Animal Crossing, and WatchDogs. WIi Sports club selling close to that of Mario Kart 8. Then you have Sonic Boom selling at or lower than Smash 4 but Outselling, Wii Sports Club and Mario Kart?

Do you actually understand what crap you are spewing?

So your reasoning amounts to "it's impossible, even with all those games", and "Nintendo systems have never sold that much (except for the Wii)".

I feel that is a good enough reason. I'll be surprised if it even sells half of those numbers in the next 7 months.

That's completely inaccurate. Most of the biggest sellers that pushed consoles last gen were exclusives aside from a couple of big franchises like AC and GTA.

Anyway, we shall see in a week if your assertions are correct. I suspect Watch_Dogs' sales will drop off a lot faster than MK8's.

Thanks. I now know not to bother arguing with you. Your entire argument summarises to "Wii U isn't Wii" and "only Mario Kart is capable of even making the Wii U sell that much". When you refer to Smash Bros as "niche", you prove yourself to be full of it.

Here is a full listing of franchises that sold more relative to install base in Gen 7 (consoles, not handhelds): Wii ___, Mario Kart, New Super Mario Bros, Grand Theft Auto, Call of Duty, Gran Turismo, Kinect Adventures (bundled), Halo. That's the FULL list of franchises that sold better relative to install base than Brawl. And no matter how you cut it, 12 million copies sold is an impressive number for *any* game on *any* system.

... and, as with "ad hominem", it seems you don't understand what the term "niche" means (in context). By your definition, every game, ever made, is niche. Or are you defining fighting games as "niche" because you're not a fan of them?

The PS4 indie games could have the same effect. I've made no comment whatsoever about the PS4's ability to sell, or the appeal of any of the PS4's games. For you see, I don't try to denigrate PS4 or Xbox One just because I prefer the Wii U. I know, hard to believe, right?

You have yet to give a reason for why they don't. And since the evidence for franchises like Smash, Animal Crossing, Wii Sports, and Sonic is that they're capable of appealing to the mainstream, as demonstrated by the fact that all of them are well-known to the general public (who would never have heard of Bayonetta, and probably only know of Titanfall because of recent advertising, if at all). You don't get to ignore my evidence of their mainstream potential or ability to move systems, and then declare that I haven't provided evidence - argue against the evidence (with counterevidence), or shut up.

Run away from the argument because you can't come up with valid counters? Resulting to ad hominem attacks? Typical.

Just because Smash sold the highest on the Gamecube doesn't mean its not Niche. Smash is a "party" fighting game, fighting games are not mainstream in the least bit way, that is the defintion of niche, appealling to a focused demographic.

You seem to believe that: Wii Sports Club, Bayonetta 2, Hyrule Warriors, X, Animal Crossing U, Watch Dogs, Smash Bros U, Sonic Boom, and 2 unannounced games, black friday and holiday sales, and a "Push" from Nintendo, will push the Wii U to 7+ million this year.

Newsflash: None of those games are mainstream enough and will not outsell MK8 this year. And I can break it down for each and everyone why they will fail to meet your ludicrous Titanfall-esque expectations.

Wii Sports Club: See the effect of Kinect Sports Rivals, that fad is done. Not to mention the original was free and this version is full price.

Bayonetta 2: Hyped simply because its  an exclusive platnum game. The orginal flopped, and this sequel is on a much smaller and less diverse base then the original.

X: Might sell well, but is as niche as Xenoblade was.

Animal Crossing U: Better on the 3DS, its a life simulator that is not mainstream at all.

Watchdogs: Not only will it have the worst version, the game will probably have poor legs, at full price in october it has a worse chance then mass effect did.

SmashBros U: I've already explained, plus the 3DS version will dilute the market. It will not outsell MK8 this year.

Sonic Boom: Any Sonic Fan already knows how this will end.

Holidays, Black Friday: Xb1 destroyed the Wii U last black friday with 3 launch games. PS4 dominated the holidays with 2 launch games. This year its not going to be any easier than the last. Especially, when it was uncontested.

Push by Nintendo: This point you literally pulled out of your ass.

Not "baseless speculation" - it was a demonstration that Nintendo *could* do it. It's a thought experiment, basically. It's speculation of possible Nintendo actions - not an assertion that it'll happen, but an assertion that it could. Meanwhile, you've declared it impossible with no evidence to back you up. Who's got the baseless speculation, here?

I didn't say that CoD isn't mainstream. Try reading what I said again. I said that you consider CoD mainstream, but Smash Bros and Wii Sports to be "niche", with no evidence. I was pointing out the hypocrisy - either they're all mainstream, or they're all niche.

You have no idea what I consider Niche. There is no hypocrisy, Niche is merely a term to describe the appeal of a game. All games are in a sense Niche because they appeal to a limited audience. It makes no sense to talk about the mainstream in this context. Thats why I said Niche compared to MK8. 

You assert a hell of a lot about what I think. None of that is within my posts. I didn't say Wii U would sell gangbusters. I said it *could*. I said it's not outside of the realm of possibility - and you have yet to provide a more nuanced argument than "all of the Wii U's games are niche because I said so".

Why can it? Unless you have proof of your claim its not even plausible let alone possible.

I also find it particularly amusing that you point out that a MK8 meme made it onto mainstream news, and then use that to somehow argue that Nintendo's lineup couldn't possibly drive further Wii U sales... while ignoring that the meme turned up after the game released, and made it onto mainstream news after the current sales data period ended - meaning, it can't possibly have had its impact yet.

That is evidence that MK8 has broad appeal, the news story is just icing on the cake. You have still yet to explain why any of those games will come close to the appeal of MK8. And yet you say its plausible for Wii Sports club alone to do more than half of MK8's sales?

And finally, you seem to have misunderstood my sequence even more. The numbers provided weren't sales numbers for specific games. They were net sales of the system, assuming that specific games release in specific months. It's a cumulative momentum sequence - games being released in a pattern that builds momentum with each release. If you didn't get that, then you've clearly misunderstood my whole argument far worse than I thought.

That excuse does not address the validity or plausibility of your assertion. If you are estimating the performance of a system over a long period of time than obviously it is cummulative. Furthermore, we already have evidence of how the Wii U is doing with its current library so far. in 17 months it has sold 6.3~ million units, in the next 7 months you predict it will sell 7.3 million units. If this hasn't set off any red flags, the fact that the majority of your games are outselling 3DWorld further goes against your prediction. That's also why i've compared them to 3DWorld.

I've said it before and I've said it again, just because MK8 has been doing well on a relatively poor selling system does not mean that any of the other games with the exception of Smash 4, and even Smash 4 won't outsell MK8 this year because of mainstream appeal.