| Aielyn said: Thanks. I now know not to bother arguing with you. Your entire argument summarises to "Wii U isn't Wii" and "only Mario Kart is capable of even making the Wii U sell that much". When you refer to Smash Bros as "niche", you prove yourself to be full of it. |
If it wasn't an ad hominem fallacy, this claim would be irrelevant. You said that you will not bother arguing with me because I have been proven to "be full of it" by asserting my opinion about the mainstream appeal of a game. I explained why I believe Smash to be Niche. You respond by telling me I'm full of it. You sure didn't address the issue.
| Aielyn said:
Here is a full listing of franchises that sold more relative to install base in Gen 7 (consoles, not handhelds): Wii ___, Mario Kart, New Super Mario Bros, Grand Theft Auto, Call of Duty, Gran Turismo, Kinect Adventures (bundled), Halo. That's the FULL list of franchises that sold better relative to install base than Brawl. And no matter how you cut it, 12 million copies sold is an impressive number for *any* game on *any* system. |
100 million. An attach rate of 12/100, but the point is not that brawl is a terrible seller. The point is that is heavy evidence for the argument that Smash has a niche audience. It failed to appeal to 88 million Wii owners. Why would that jump to appeal to 1/3 Wii U owners, especially when its also on the 3DS.
| Aielyn said: ... and, as with "ad hominem", it seems you don't understand what the term "niche" means (in context). By your definition, every game, ever made, is niche. Or are you defining fighting games as "niche" because you're not a fan of them? |
My defintion of Niche is that it does not appeal to what would be consider a mainstream demographic. The fighting game community is small and dedicated. Smash is Niche in that sense. I mean you could argue that "I'm claiming that every game ever made is Niche" but that would be wrong because the only context I've ever described Smash as NIche is in comparision to MK8, as evidence to support my Claim that Smash will not outsell MK8 this year. The issue has always been that it is not as mainstream as MK8.
And another thing, you seem to have a lot of presumpption that are flat out wrong. First off, I am fan of Smash more than Mario Kart, I love fighting games and thats why I can recognize they are niche, just like JRPGs in the US. You seem to think NIche means bad, I have an entire thread arguing against that very idea: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=182829&page=1
| Aielyn said:
The PS4 indie games could have the same effect. I've made no comment whatsoever about the PS4's ability to sell, or the appeal of any of the PS4's games. For you see, I don't try to denigrate PS4 or Xbox One just because I prefer the Wii U. I know, hard to believe, right? |
So you mean to tell me that a plausible estimation of the WIi U's performance should not take into consideration what the competition will do because you prefer the Wii U? That only sounds like a You Problem. How is it plausible, when the Wii U does not exist in a vacuum? I integrate all system equally because any preferences I have aren't enough to sway my rational decision making process. I know, hard to believe, right?
| Aielyn said:
You have yet to give a reason for why they don't. And since the evidence for franchises like Smash, Animal Crossing, Wii Sports, and Sonic is that they're capable of appealing to the mainstream, as demonstrated by the fact that all of them are well-known to the general public (who would never have heard of Bayonetta, and probably only know of Titanfall because of recent advertising, if at all). You don't get to ignore my evidence of their mainstream potential or ability to move systems, and then declare that I haven't provided evidence - argue against the evidence (with counterevidence), or shut up. |
I have you have just ignored them. No evidence I present to you has even been addressed.
Dr.Henry_Killinger said:
Run away from the argument because you can't come up with valid counters? Resulting to ad hominem attacks? Typical. Just because Smash sold the highest on the Gamecube doesn't mean its not Niche. Smash is a "party" fighting game, fighting games are not mainstream in the least bit way, that is the defintion of niche, appealling to a focused demographic. You seem to believe that: Wii Sports Club, Bayonetta 2, Hyrule Warriors, X, Animal Crossing U, Watch Dogs, Smash Bros U, Sonic Boom, and 2 unannounced games, black friday and holiday sales, and a "Push" from Nintendo, will push the Wii U to 7+ million this year. Newsflash: None of those games are mainstream enough and will not outsell MK8 this year. And I can break it down for each and everyone why they will fail to meet your ludicrous Titanfall-esque expectations. Wii Sports Club: See the effect of Kinect Sports Rivals, that fad is done. Not to mention the original was free and this version is full price. Bayonetta 2: Hyped simply because its an exclusive platnum game. The orginal flopped, and this sequel is on a much smaller and less diverse base then the original. X: Might sell well, but is as niche as Xenoblade was. Animal Crossing U: Better on the 3DS, its a life simulator that is not mainstream at all. Watchdogs: Not only will it have the worst version, the game will probably have poor legs, at full price in october it has a worse chance then mass effect did. SmashBros U: I've already explained, plus the 3DS version will dilute the market. It will not outsell MK8 this year. Sonic Boom: Any Sonic Fan already knows how this will end. Holidays, Black Friday: Xb1 destroyed the Wii U last black friday with 3 launch games. PS4 dominated the holidays with 2 launch games. This year its not going to be any easier than the last. Especially, when it was uncontested. Push by Nintendo: This point you literally pulled out of your ass. |
It won't matter anyway, your goalposts seem to be flowing in the breeze.
| Aielyn said:
Not "baseless speculation" - it was a demonstration that Nintendo *could* do it. It's a thought experiment, basically. It's speculation of possible Nintendo actions - not an assertion that it'll happen, but an assertion that it could. Meanwhile, you've declared it impossible with no evidence to back you up. Who's got the baseless speculation, here? |
Then what is the evidence that Nintendo could sell 2.9 million units off of holiday cheer with competitors, versus how it did December 2012? December 2013 gave us a glimpse and it sure wasn't 2.9 million. What are you basing your speculation on, possibility? What are you basing possibility on? Because it sure isn't history.
| Aielyn said:
I didn't say that CoD isn't mainstream. Try reading what I said again. I said that you consider CoD mainstream, but Smash Bros and Wii Sports to be "niche", with no evidence. I was pointing out the hypocrisy - either they're all mainstream, or they're all niche. You have no idea what I consider Niche. There is no hypocrisy, Niche is merely a term to describe the appeal of a game. All games are in a sense Niche because they appeal to a limited audience. It makes no sense to talk about the mainstream in this context. Thats why I said Niche compared to MK8. You assert a hell of a lot about what I think. None of that is within my posts. I didn't say Wii U would sell gangbusters. I said it *could*. I said it's not outside of the realm of possibility - and you have yet to provide a more nuanced argument than "all of the Wii U's games are niche because I said so". Why can it? Unless you have proof of your claim its not even plausible let alone possible. I also find it particularly amusing that you point out that a MK8 meme made it onto mainstream news, and then use that to somehow argue that Nintendo's lineup couldn't possibly drive further Wii U sales... while ignoring that the meme turned up after the game released, and made it onto mainstream news after the current sales data period ended - meaning, it can't possibly have had its impact yet. That is evidence that MK8 has broad appeal, the news story is just icing on the cake. You have still yet to explain why any of those games will come close to the appeal of MK8. And yet you say its plausible for Wii Sports club alone to do more than half of MK8's sales? And finally, you seem to have misunderstood my sequence even more. The numbers provided weren't sales numbers for specific games. They were net sales of the system, assuming that specific games release in specific months. It's a cumulative momentum sequence - games being released in a pattern that builds momentum with each release. If you didn't get that, then you've clearly misunderstood my whole argument far worse than I thought. That excuse does not address the validity or plausibility of your assertion. If you are estimating the performance of a system over a long period of time than obviously it is cummulative. Furthermore, we already have evidence of how the Wii U is doing with its current library so far. in 17 months it has sold 6.3~ million units, in the next 7 months you predict it will sell 7.3 million units. If this hasn't set off any red flags, the fact that the majority of your games are outselling 3DWorld further goes against your prediction. That's also why i've compared them to 3DWorld. I've said it before and I've said it again, just because MK8 has been doing well on a relatively poor selling system does not mean that any of the other games with the exception of Smash 4, and even Smash 4 won't outsell MK8 this year because of mainstream appeal. |
If you think 7.3 is plausible for the Wii U in 7 months, what do you expect for the XB1 and the PS4? Or is your bias so heavy that you forgot that they even existed. If you want to convince anyone that the Wii U LTD sales are going to increase by 150% in the next 7 months, then you need a lot more than speculation and cummulative momentum sequences.
In this day and age, with the Internet, ignorance is a choice! And they're still choosing Ignorance! - Dr. Filthy Frank
