I'll tell you why Nintendo fans are so excited over 1 week's worth of sales.

[Aielyn]

Dr.Henry_Killinger said:

Aielyn said:

Run away? Not at all. And you might want to look up the definition of "ad hominem", it doesn't mean what you think it means.

Disregarding my argument because you believe me to be full of it is the very definition of an ad hominem fallacy.

An ad hominem (Latin for "to the man" or "to the person"^[1]), short for argumentum ad hominem, is a general category of fallacies in which a claim or argument is rejected on the basis of some irrelevant fact about the author of or the person presenting the claim or argument.^[2] Fallacious Ad hominem reasoning is normally categorized as an informal fallacy,^[3][4][5] more precisely as a genetic fallacy,^[6] a subcategory of fallacies of irrelevance.^[7] Ad hominem reasoning is not always fallacious, for example, when it relates to the credibility of statements of fact.

Smash sold 12 million copies on the Wii. It sold 7 million on the Gamecube. If you suppose that just a quarter of the fans of the gamecube version have not bought a Wii U and are interested in Smash Bros U, that's almost 2 million units it'll sell.

It sold that much lifetime. 12 million on a system with 100million units ltd is absolutely terrible. The 3DS is going to hijack a lot of smash sales, and the marketshare is even smaller than the game cube. You should adjust accordingly.

And that's assuming that not a single other person amongst the 5 million or more that bought Brawl are interested in the new game. Calling it "niche" and "party" in an effort to denigrate it demonstrates that your arguments do not hold water.

Calling it niche is simply describing what it is. The mainstream appeal of Smash is limited in that it is a fighting game. ALL fighting games are niche without exception.

Meanwhile, you seem to think that games sell systems in isolation. They don't. It's a cumulative thing. If you have 100 games that are all very niche, it's possible for their combined effect to be bigger than the effect of one big game. But I like how you dismiss Wii Sports Club as non-mainstream.

Why wouldn't the PS4 indies have the same effect then. You seem to be under the impression that Niche = Bad or something. It merely means it does not have significant mainstream appeal..

In other news, you claim that Wii Sports Club is "full price". It's $40 in the US, $55 in Australia. Also see Wii Sports Resort. I particularly like the part where you compare it to Kinect Sports Rivals, though. And now Animal Crossing also isn't mainstream, despite even the worst-seller being 3 million (and that was the feature-lite original game) and the best seller being one of the games that drove the DS through the roof?

You keep telling me that these games are Mainstream, but you have yet to explain why they appeal to the mainstream audience and how these games will move Wii Us.

Oh, and you do realise that the "push by Nintendo" was a concept, right? As in, a speculation? You also clearly didn't actually read my original post properly.

So you admit to baseless speculation. You say I am out of touch with reality and yet you think its reasonable to speculate that Nintendo will magically have a push at the end of the year. Ok.

Like I said, not worth arguing with you. Your arguments are just plain absurd, based in a very warped sense of reality in which CoD is "mainstream" but Smash Bros is "niche" and Wii Sports also isn't mainstream.

So COD is not mainstream? Smash Bros appeal's to a Niche audience a lot more focused then that of Mario Kart. Wii Sports piggybacked off of the casual sucess of the Wii, you're just grasping here.

Just because of Mario Kart, you think all of a sudden Nintendo's games are going to start selling gangbusters?

Smash 4 might outsell Mario Kart 8 lifetime, because of better legs but there is no way its happening this year, Mario Kart has more mainstream appeal then Smash, a meme from MK8 was featured on the news for christ sake, not to mention the 3DS version will definetly take away Wii U sales.

Everything else, will probably fail to outsell 3DWorld let alone Pikmin 3.

In the first 6 months of this year, the Wii U sold 1million give or take, you expect a sustained 700% increase because of Bayonetta, Wii Sports Club, X, and Some secret games? You expect the Wii U to sell more in the next 7 months with competition then the 12 months it was alone on the market + the 5 months up until now? And I have a warped sense of reality?

This is isn't optimism, this is even well thought out. Its as if you decided on the number 7.3 million beforehand, and just filled in the blanks with games and numbers. Hell, you couldn't even completely fill it up so you start adding vague things such as suprise titles, holidays, my god from December alone you gleaned 2.9 million sales from "Holidays + a Big push by Nintendo". You realize that this "Holidays + A Big push by Nintendo alone" would doubletriple the amount of Wii U's sold this previous 6 months and sell a third half of the Wii U's life time total? This period would sell 46 times more than Mario Kart, despite the fact that "Holiday + Big Push by Nintendo" is not a game?

Then when questioned on exactly these vague things are you, defend them by calling them speculation? Your not even basing your speculation on anything observable.

Do you see why your plausible estimation is nonsensical?

In fact, I realize now that I have been addressing this issue incorrectly, instead debating against the games you beleive will have titanfall-esque second coming of jesus type effects when really, I just need to highlight the HUGE FUCKING HOLES in your argument.

The Majority of your estimation is the Wii U selling off of Disney Magic alone, you have Wii Sports Club outselling Bayonetta 2, Hyrule Warriors, X, Animal Crossing, and WatchDogs. WIi Sports club selling close to that of Mario Kart 8. Then you have Sonic Boom selling at or lower than Smash 4 but Outselling, Wii Sports Club and Mario Kart?

Do you actually understand what crap you are spewing?

I didn't dismiss your arguments by saying you were full of it, I said you were full of it because of your arguments. Ad hominem would involve me asserting the falsity of your arguments by attacking you - I didn't do that.

Here is a full listing of franchises that sold more relative to install base in Gen 7 (consoles, not handhelds): Wii ___, Mario Kart, New Super Mario Bros, Grand Theft Auto, Call of Duty, Gran Turismo, Kinect Adventures (bundled), Halo. That's the FULL list of franchises that sold better relative to install base than Brawl. And no matter how you cut it, 12 million copies sold is an impressive number for *any* game on *any* system.

... and, as with "ad hominem", it seems you don't understand what the term "niche" means (in context). By your definition, every game, ever made, is niche. Or are you defining fighting games as "niche" because you're not a fan of them?

The PS4 indie games could have the same effect. I've made no comment whatsoever about the PS4's ability to sell, or the appeal of any of the PS4's games. For you see, I don't try to denigrate PS4 or Xbox One just because I prefer the Wii U. I know, hard to believe, right?

You have yet to give a reason for why they don't. And since the evidence for franchises like Smash, Animal Crossing, Wii Sports, and Sonic is that they're capable of appealing to the mainstream, as demonstrated by the fact that all of them are well-known to the general public (who would never have heard of Bayonetta, and probably only know of Titanfall because of recent advertising, if at all). You don't get to ignore my evidence of their mainstream potential or ability to move systems, and then declare that I haven't provided evidence - argue against the evidence (with counterevidence), or shut up.

Not "baseless speculation" - it was a demonstration that Nintendo *could* do it. It's a thought experiment, basically. It's speculation of possible Nintendo actions - not an assertion that it'll happen, but an assertion that it could. Meanwhile, you've declared it impossible with no evidence to back you up. Who's got the baseless speculation, here?

I didn't say that CoD isn't mainstream. Try reading what I said again. I said that you consider CoD mainstream, but Smash Bros and Wii Sports to be "niche", with no evidence. I was pointing out the hypocrisy - either they're all mainstream, or they're all niche.

You assert a hell of a lot about what I think. None of that is within my posts. I didn't say Wii U would sell gangbusters. I said it *could*. I said it's not outside of the realm of possibility - and you have yet to provide a more nuanced argument than "all of the Wii U's games are niche because I said so".

I also find it particularly amusing that you point out that a MK8 meme made it onto mainstream news, and then use that to somehow argue that Nintendo's lineup couldn't possibly drive further Wii U sales... while ignoring that the meme turned up after the game released, and made it onto mainstream news after the current sales data period ended - meaning, it can't possibly have had its impact yet.

And finally, you seem to have misunderstood my sequence even more. The numbers provided weren't sales numbers for specific games. They were net sales of the system, assuming that specific games release in specific months. It's a cumulative momentum sequence - games being released in a pattern that builds momentum with each release. If you didn't get that, then you've clearly misunderstood my whole argument far worse than I thought.