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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - I'll tell you why Nintendo fans are so excited over 1 week's worth of sales.

biglittlesps on 08 June 2014
Aielyn said:
Dr.Henry_Killinger said:
Today is June 7, 2014.

The year ends December 31, 2014.

There are 6 months, 25 days, and 30 minutes remaining.

The WIi U will need 7.3 million sales in the next ~7 months for this to happen.

The Wii U will need to sell a no less then a million a month, selling more this year than the past 2 years combined.

Sorry, sounds like bullshit.

Off the back of Mario Kart Wii, Smash Bros Brawl, Animal Crossing City Folk, and Wii Fit (plus Wii Music), the Wii sold more than a million a week in the five weeks leading up to Christmas in 2008. Between those five weeks, it sold more than 6.4 million units. The idea that the Wii U could sell 7.3 million over 7 months is not unreasonable, if the Wii U manages to gather momentum, noting that it's got Mario Kart 8, is going to get Smash Bros U, is frequently predicted to be getting Animal Crossing U (expected to be announced at E3), and is also known to be getting Bayonetta 2, X, Wii Sports Club, Hyrule Warriors, Sonic Boom, and Watch Dogs. Plus anything announced for 2014 at E3.

Is it guaranteed, nowhere near it. But the possibility can't be dismissed so easily.

A plausible sequence goes like this:

June: 500,000 (thanks to Mario Kart 8 + a small bump from E3)

July: 350,000 (Wii Sports Club)

August: 350,000 (Bayonetta 2 + a surprise title)

September: 400,000 (Hyrule Warriors + another surprise title)

October: 600,000 (X, Animal Crossing U, Watch Dogs + beginning of holiday season)

November: 2.2 million (Smash Bros U, Sonic Boom + holidays + Black Friday)

December: 2.9 million (holiday sales + big push by Nintendo)

Total: 7.3 million

Note that this is not a prediction. It is merely a demonstration that, given a sufficient amount of momentum, the Wii U could achieve it. Note that the "surprise titles" would be titles of the sort that Nintendo wouldn't announce well in advance - typically, these are the titles oriented towards the mainstream, rather than gamers.

Also note that the games in brackets aren't meant to be a full list of titles, just the most notable ones - they're also attempts at guessing release months for various games.

5.1 Millions in 2 month of Holidays for Wii U is not realistic even considering the titles you mention and what you mean big push by Nintendo(price cut to 200$?). I would like to hear about your prediction for PS4 and Xbox one for these two months.



GAMING is not about spending hours to pass/waste our time just for fun,

its a Feeling/Experience about a VIRTUAL WORLD we can never be in real, and realizing some of our dreams (also creating new ones).

So, Feel Emotions, Experience Adventure/Action, Challenge Game, Solve puzzles and Have fun.

PlayStation is about all-round "New experiences" using new IP's to provide great diversity for everyone.

Xbox is always about Online and Shooting.

Nintendo is always about Fun games and milking IP's.

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Aielyn on 08 June 2014
Ucell said:
Aielyn said:
Off the back of Mario Kart Wii, Smash Bros Brawl, Animal Crossing City Folk, and Wii Fit (plus Wii Music), the Wii sold more than a million a week in the five weeks leading up to Christmas in 2008. Between those five weeks, it sold more than 6.4 million units. The idea that the Wii U could sell 7.3 million over 7 months is not unreasonable, if the Wii U manages to gather momentum, noting that it's got Mario Kart 8, is going to get Smash Bros U, is frequently predicted to be getting Animal Crossing U (expected to be announced at E3), and is also known to be getting Bayonetta 2, X, Wii Sports Club, Hyrule Warriors, Sonic Boom, and Watch Dogs. Plus anything announced for 2014 at E3.

Is it guaranteed, nowhere near it. But the possibility can't be dismissed so easily.

A plausible sequence goes like this:

June: 500,000 (thanks to Mario Kart 8 + a small bump from E3)

July: 350,000 (Wii Sports Club)

August: 350,000 (Bayonetta 2 + a surprise title)

September: 400,000 (Hyrule Warriors + another surprise title)

October: 600,000 (X, Animal Crossing U, Watch Dogs + beginning of holiday season)

November: 2.2 million (Smash Bros U, Sonic Boom + holidays + Black Friday)

December: 2.9 million (holiday sales + big push by Nintendo)

Total: 7.3 million

Note that this is not a prediction. It is merely a demonstration that, given a sufficient amount of momentum, the Wii U could achieve it. Note that the "surprise titles" would be titles of the sort that Nintendo wouldn't announce well in advance - typically, these are the titles oriented towards the mainstream, rather than gamers.

Also note that the games in brackets aren't meant to be a full list of titles, just the most notable ones - they're also attempts at guessing release months for various games.

That is completely unreasonable. Wii U will barely manage half of those sales this year. I'm not going to go into the details but that is utterly impossible.

Congratulations on not actually reading my post, and only skimming it.



Aielyn on 08 June 2014
biglittlesps said:
Aielyn said:
Off the back of Mario Kart Wii, Smash Bros Brawl, Animal Crossing City Folk, and Wii Fit (plus Wii Music), the Wii sold more than a million a week in the five weeks leading up to Christmas in 2008. Between those five weeks, it sold more than 6.4 million units. The idea that the Wii U could sell 7.3 million over 7 months is not unreasonable, if the Wii U manages to gather momentum, noting that it's got Mario Kart 8, is going to get Smash Bros U, is frequently predicted to be getting Animal Crossing U (expected to be announced at E3), and is also known to be getting Bayonetta 2, X, Wii Sports Club, Hyrule Warriors, Sonic Boom, and Watch Dogs. Plus anything announced for 2014 at E3.

Is it guaranteed, nowhere near it. But the possibility can't be dismissed so easily.

A plausible sequence goes like this:

June: 500,000 (thanks to Mario Kart 8 + a small bump from E3)

July: 350,000 (Wii Sports Club)

August: 350,000 (Bayonetta 2 + a surprise title)

September: 400,000 (Hyrule Warriors + another surprise title)

October: 600,000 (X, Animal Crossing U, Watch Dogs + beginning of holiday season)

November: 2.2 million (Smash Bros U, Sonic Boom + holidays + Black Friday)

December: 2.9 million (holiday sales + big push by Nintendo)

Total: 7.3 million

Note that this is not a prediction. It is merely a demonstration that, given a sufficient amount of momentum, the Wii U could achieve it. Note that the "surprise titles" would be titles of the sort that Nintendo wouldn't announce well in advance - typically, these are the titles oriented towards the mainstream, rather than gamers.

Also note that the games in brackets aren't meant to be a full list of titles, just the most notable ones - they're also attempts at guessing release months for various games.

5.1 Millions in 2 month of Holidays for Wii U is not realistic even considering the titles you mention and what you mean big push by Nintendo(price cut to 200$?). I would like to hear about your prediction for PS4 and Xbox one for these two months.

It's definitely the ultimate optimistic case. I don't actually expect it to quite do that well. But if Nintendo were to play a perfect 7 months from now until the end of the year, it's achievable. And the big push is referring to various methods - high levels of advertising, various deals, bundles, possible price drop, etc.

I don't have much by way of predictions for PS4 and Xbox One, except that I expect PS4 to easily outperform Xbox One worldwide. If I had to put any sort of figure on PS4 numbers, I'd probably use 2011 PS3 numbers as a rough guide - this would put PS4 December sales somewhere around 3.6 million, and November sales around 2 million.

Incidentally, my Wii U sequence isn't all that different to Xbox 360's 2012 sales pattern.



Ucell on 08 June 2014
Aielyn said:
Ucell said:
Aielyn said:
Off the back of Mario Kart Wii, Smash Bros Brawl, Animal Crossing City Folk, and Wii Fit (plus Wii Music), the Wii sold more than a million a week in the five weeks leading up to Christmas in 2008. Between those five weeks, it sold more than 6.4 million units. The idea that the Wii U could sell 7.3 million over 7 months is not unreasonable, if the Wii U manages to gather momentum, noting that it's got Mario Kart 8, is going to get Smash Bros U, is frequently predicted to be getting Animal Crossing U (expected to be announced at E3), and is also known to be getting Bayonetta 2, X, Wii Sports Club, Hyrule Warriors, Sonic Boom, and Watch Dogs. Plus anything announced for 2014 at E3.

Is it guaranteed, nowhere near it. But the possibility can't be dismissed so easily.

A plausible sequence goes like this:

June: 500,000 (thanks to Mario Kart 8 + a small bump from E3)

July: 350,000 (Wii Sports Club)

August: 350,000 (Bayonetta 2 + a surprise title)

September: 400,000 (Hyrule Warriors + another surprise title)

October: 600,000 (X, Animal Crossing U, Watch Dogs + beginning of holiday season)

November: 2.2 million (Smash Bros U, Sonic Boom + holidays + Black Friday)

December: 2.9 million (holiday sales + big push by Nintendo)

Total: 7.3 million

Note that this is not a prediction. It is merely a demonstration that, given a sufficient amount of momentum, the Wii U could achieve it. Note that the "surprise titles" would be titles of the sort that Nintendo wouldn't announce well in advance - typically, these are the titles oriented towards the mainstream, rather than gamers.

Also note that the games in brackets aren't meant to be a full list of titles, just the most notable ones - they're also attempts at guessing release months for various games.

That is completely unreasonable. Wii U will barely manage half of those sales this year. I'm not going to go into the details but that is utterly impossible.

Congratulations on not actually reading my post, and only skimming it.

You said its possible. I said its absolutely impossible. Tell me where I skimmed the post?

Even in the best case scenario it is completely unreasonable to expect the Wii U to sell more units in a month than it did in the last fiscal year. Especially since Nintendo released 3 of its 6 big guns last fiscal year.



Aielyn on 08 June 2014
Ucell said:
You said its possible. I said its absolutely impossible. Tell me where I skimmed the post?

Even in the best case scenario it is completely unreasonable to expect the Wii U to sell more units in a month than it did in the last fiscal year. Especially since Nintendo released 3 of its 6 big guns last fiscal year.

Well, if you have reasoning to justify your argument that it's "absolutely impossible", provide it. I'm not a person that accepts blind faith of any persuasion - provide your evidence or shut up.

Nintendo released "3 of its 6 big guns last fiscal year"... yeah, except that Mario Kart 8 proves that those games weren't big enough guns. What we have this year, already confirmed, includes a new Zelda, Smash, and Mario Kart. And that's just the confirmed big guns. As so many people have pointed out, Nintendo is in crisis mode - they're going to have more to announce at E3. Wouldn't be surprised by a full-fledged Pokemon console title, new Mario Galaxy, new Metroid, and/or new IP. You'll notice I included "surprises" in my sequence.

But hey, you don't expect them, so it's "absolutely impossible", right?



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Smear-Gel on 08 June 2014

Just saying "that's impossible!" and sounding smart but providing absolutely zero information would be (and has been) ridiculed if a nintendo fan did it.



Ucell on 08 June 2014
Aielyn said:
Ucell said:
You said its possible. I said its absolutely impossible. Tell me where I skimmed the post?

Even in the best case scenario it is completely unreasonable to expect the Wii U to sell more units in a month than it did in the last fiscal year. Especially since Nintendo released 3 of its 6 big guns last fiscal year.

Well, if you have reasoning to justify your argument that it's "absolutely impossible", provide it. I'm not a person that accepts blind faith of any persuasion - provide your evidence or shut up.

Nintendo released "3 of its 6 big guns last fiscal year"... yeah, except that Mario Kart 8 proves that those games weren't big enough guns. What we have this year, already confirmed, includes a new Zelda, Smash, and Mario Kart. And that's just the confirmed big guns. As so many people have pointed out, Nintendo is in crisis mode - they're going to have more to announce at E3. Wouldn't be surprised by a full-fledged Pokemon console title, new Mario Galaxy, new Metroid, and/or new IP. You'll notice I included "surprises" in my sequence.

But hey, you don't expect them, so it's "absolutely impossible", right?

Even with all those games its impossible. Metroid isn't big, MG wouldn't sell to a different audience than SM3DW and Zelda is only coming as a spinoff which is a DW-style game with limited appeal.

Even if they launch all their big IPs in a year they wouldn't sell that much. They never have sold that much in 7 months except in the case of Wii which had Wii Sports and motion controls unless they drop the price to $200 which they will not do.



Ucell on 08 June 2014
Smear-Gel said:
Just saying "that's impossible!" and sounding smart but providing absolutely zero information would be (and has been) ridiculed if a nintendo fan did it.

All evidence says so. Tell me what will make it sell that well.



Dr.Henry_Killinger on 08 June 2014
megaman79 said:
Dr.Henry_Killinger said:
megaman79 said:

The Wii U was saved by the dishonesty and shady business practices of 3rd Parties and Microsoft.

 

Yes, Iwata was right. One game can turn things around. But in terms of the entire 8th Gen Home Console Market, Microsofts failure to capitalize on their 7th Gen success is almost as large a tectonic shift as the Wii was last gen.

Only failure awaits when expectations are pushed out of the bounds of possibility. A single game cannot solve the issues that have made the Wii U what it is and what it will be.

Wii Sports, Angry Birds, Temple Run, Halo, come on......

Fad, Mobile, Mobile, Original Xbox only sold 20 million. A single game does not turn things around.



In this day and age, with the Internet, ignorance is a choice! And they're still choosing Ignorance! - Dr. Filthy Frank

Dr.Henry_Killinger on 08 June 2014
Aielyn said:
Ucell said:
You said its possible. I said its absolutely impossible. Tell me where I skimmed the post?

Even in the best case scenario it is completely unreasonable to expect the Wii U to sell more units in a month than it did in the last fiscal year. Especially since Nintendo released 3 of its 6 big guns last fiscal year.

Well, if you have reasoning to justify your argument that it's "absolutely impossible", provide it. I'm not a person that accepts blind faith of any persuasion - provide your evidence or shut up.

Nintendo released "3 of its 6 big guns last fiscal year"... yeah, except that Mario Kart 8 proves that those games weren't big enough guns. What we have this year, already confirmed, includes a new Zelda, Smash, and Mario Kart. And that's just the confirmed big guns. As so many people have pointed out, Nintendo is in crisis mode - they're going to have more to announce at E3. Wouldn't be surprised by a full-fledged Pokemon console title, new Mario Galaxy, new Metroid, and/or new IP. You'll notice I included "surprises" in my sequence.

But hey, you don't expect them, so it's "absolutely impossible", right?

The only thing Mario Kart 8 proved, was that it was the only game able to actually shift a significant amount of Wii U's. It does not provide any information about the prospect of new sales, and every single game you listed has a niche audience, to expect them to sell better than MK8 is ludicrous. The Wii U is not the WIi in any shape or form. In the next 6 months it would have to sell better than it did for the past 2 years off of solely games alone. If Wii U couldn't sell 6.3 when it had the market to itself, what makes you think it will sell more in a quarter of the time with 2 heavy competitors down its neck.

This might come as a shock to Nintendo fans who regulary tout that Nintendo makes the best games quality wise, they don't. Not everyone likes their games and it is rare to find someone who likes all of their games. Hearing that especially pisses me off when you look at how they butchered the Paper Mario Series. The only game that I'm a fan of Nintendo for right now is Smash and I'm almost certain Smash 4 will be worse than Melee, which is my favorite game in the series.



In this day and age, with the Internet, ignorance is a choice! And they're still choosing Ignorance! - Dr. Filthy Frank