ParryWinkle said:
Dropped. |
Linux support is only from indies and valve.

ParryWinkle said:
Dropped. |
Linux support is only from indies and valve.

| crissindahouse said: like I added to my first post "Your calculation lacks a lot of factors so that I don't even try to argue about that. Not to forget that you simply can't do a calculation like that in 5 minutes or even 5 days." But just to mention a few things: 1. Titanfall got a lot of free marketing only because it is exlusive on Microsoft platforms. We would have never seen hundreds of Titanfall threads in every forum if it would have been on every platform. This was worth a lot but didn't cost anything. 2. Many people who can't buy it on their PS3 will simply buy it on their 360. Mentioning the Wii doesn't make any sense to me since even Ubisoft wouldn't release Titanfall on Wii but we talk about EA so that it wouldn't come to Wii U even without Microsoft. PS3 and PS4 are the only platforms the game didn't release on because of Microsoft. 3. Not sure what you think how much Microsoft would invest in a game like Titanfall if they would develop it themselves but it will be a lot and having one more studio for a game like that would cost even more as only the development of the game + marketing. They can give all that money to EA. It is probably more as many think so that EA got a lot and Microsoft can still live with the costs. 4. It really makes no sense to talk so much about so many things since we have absolutely no clue about so many data these companies gained the last years or even decades to calculate with real numbers and if some decisions make sense or not. |
These estimates are generalizations, I'm ignoring a lot of the factors cause it complicates things way too much. Thats also why I'm grosly over estimating how well TF will do on both Windows and Non Windows platforms. We can make estimations and predictions, they can be wrong but they affect decisions where we don't know the future outcome, just like Titan Fall was.
Yes. Owning Respawn would cost more than buying Titanfall, but the point is that TitanFalls current performance is indicative of how much future third party exclusives will cost MS, and that is what I see as costing less then owning studios.
Furthermore, Shadow brought up an excellent point of about a third of 360 market having access to TF, thats 26 mill. Applying the same 2/3 rule to the PS3 but then accounting for the fact that PS3 online multiplayer is free that means we don't have to divide it by 2 which means 56 million addressable on the PS3. Even if those 26 mil with 360s had ps3s, thats still 30 million which would drop to 29.9 million with the pcs
Titanfall's exclusivity was based on the predictions of how well the XB1 was gonna do, future 3rd parties have more accurate data, and thats going to cause the exclusivity price to skyrocket for MS. I dun think its sustainable. The predictated losses were managable, but this unexpected fall out is gonna wreak havoc on those models.
Obviously, MS, EA, and Sony have more accurate numbers, but I doubt it paints a picture as pretty as this.
Not to mention that Legs work against MS in this predictive analysis cause that just magnifies the loss as we extrapolate over time.
In this day and age, with the Internet, ignorance is a choice! And they're still choosing Ignorance! - Dr. Filthy Frank


It annoys me to see people make a big deal out of this game just because it's not on PS4. If people really want to play it they have 3 options to play this game and 2 of them really aren't expensive at this point.
4 ≈ One
| Dgc1808 said: It annoys me to see people make a big deal out of this game just because it's not on PS4. If people really want to play it they have 3 options to play this game and 2 of them really aren't expensive at this point. |
Its not about TitanFall persay, but its the most recent 3rd party exclusive with respect to publisher, and I'm more concerned with using it to discuss how much 3rd party exclusives will cost Xbox in the future and whether or not it makes sense to invest in them versus buying studios/keeping more thigns in house.
In this day and age, with the Internet, ignorance is a choice! And they're still choosing Ignorance! - Dr. Filthy Frank


| kowenicki said: Percentages.... 85m people could buy this game on a console. I think that is a sizeable potential audience and you are forgetting multi console owners. in short... terrible analysis. |
This.
Judging from sales, I don't think the other 70% cares. It fell to fifth in only it's second week and was outsold by a PS2 port. Lol
| prayformojo said: Judging from sales, I don't think the other 70% cares. It fell to fifth in only it's second week and was outsold by a PS2 port. Lol |
Some people here are too distracted by the fact that I used Titan Fall as an example. The fact that its TitanFall isn't really the point, its just that is the most recent 3rd Party Exclusive published by a multiplat publisher.
The Questions I'm more concerned with are as follows:
| Dr.Henry_Killinger said:
So lets look at the math. How much is MS going to have to pay to secure future 3rd party exclusives? How much did they pay for TitanFall Bundurus? Isn't it cheaper to just dump money into development studios? Are the sales and deal of XB1, the XB1 "fighting back" or just trying to stop the hæmorrhaging? Is throwing money at the problem really a solution? |
In this day and age, with the Internet, ignorance is a choice! And they're still choosing Ignorance! - Dr. Filthy Frank


M$ saying they are bringing more to gamers, but in truth they are really taking away from them because they can't make anything better. Regardless,I am still enjoying the hell out of it. ;)
| Dr.Henry_Killinger said: VGC #s (take with a grain of 100(wii), 82(ps3), 81(360), 7(ps4), 6(wii u), 4(x1)* rounded to nearest million, units in millions of consoles 195/280 = 69.6% won't have access to TF 276/280 = 98.5% doesn't have access to TF So how much money is EA losing really? TF has an amazing attach rate on X1, but even at 1/2 of the X1 Attach or 1/8 attach rate of that the PS4 alone would've made EA 3/4 of the X1 sales We dun know how much money changed hands between EA and MS, but its pretty safe to assume that they not only could've not payed for the potential loss of 31.7% of the market, not including Nintendo's portion of 37.1% despite the fact that the Wii U could easily work with the Source Engine, but they also did not give MS retail copies of the game for free to make the bundurus. I don't see how any 3rd party is gonna want to go exclusive to 30.3% of the market or 23.5% of the 8th gen market, if not just going Multiplat, and thats really a worst case scenario for XB1. So lets look at the math. How much is MS going to have to pay to secure future 3rd party exclusives? How much did they pay for TitanFall Bundurus? Isn't it cheaper to just dump money into development studios? Are the sales and deal of XB1, the XB1 "fighting back" or just trying to stop the hæmorrhaging? Is throwing money at the problem really a solution? |
People try to deny this game matters but they 'can't keep its name out they mouths.'
| VitroBahllee said: Posting about Titanfall in the Sony forums. People try to deny this game matters but they 'can't keep its name out they mouths.' |
Who is denying it? I'm not. Titan Fall is very important. But it could have backfired to say the least. Had it been fully multiplat, sure XB1 would have less sales, all things the same, with MS marketting it exclusively, XB1 would probably outsell PS4 on Titanfall copies.
However, it probably drove up the cost for 3rd party exclusivity, at the very least for MS. The decision was made from predictive data, now we have actual metrics that project the near opposite.
Long story short, Xbox can't rely on Multiplats let alone sensible 3rd party devs who are deciding between competitors for an exclusive. Owning Respawn would've been a better investment than paying off EA. Thats where they should be focusing their money. TitanFall proves it.
In this day and age, with the Internet, ignorance is a choice! And they're still choosing Ignorance! - Dr. Filthy Frank

