Xbox management can do much better for XB customers by building their studios and producing exclusive games specific to the platform (a la what Nintendo always does, albeit on a smaller/slower scale).
Think about it :
Scenario 1 : Microsoft money-hats EA pre-launch, with numbers that predict XB1 being #1 in NA easily. The deal is for exclusivity, and for Microsoft to handle the marketing so that it's for all practical purposes an XB1 'exclusive' (ie ; minimize mentioning/marketing of the PC/360 variants). Microsoft probably weighed the price of paying for the PC/360 versions not to be produced at all, but EA's calculations on possible sales on those platforms exceeded what the bean-counters at Microsoft thought was reasonable.
End result of Scenario 1 : Xbox 1 gets a boost for a few weeks, Xbox 1 customers get one game from that deal (that they would have gotten anyway).
Scenario 2 : Microsoft takes that XX or XXX million, and instead starts developing an exclusive title with a hand-picked talent team well before the XB1's final specs were even set, and then fine-tune it with precision to the final hardware. They also make a deal with EA for Azure server hosting for the XB platform Titanfalls, and market perhaps some minor exclusive content at a fraction of the lockout contract in Scenario 1.
End result of Scenario 2 : Xbox 1 gets a boost AND a new IP to build on. Xbox 1 customers get two games from that deal (same/similar $$$ invested).
Now that we've gotten the math and reasoning out of the way, and the next-gen gap is gelling pretty well (with PS4 well ahead, but XB1 at least highly relevant in the US+UK), the money-hat deals such as what we saw above in Scenario 1 will no longer be tenable. EA would prefer a no-used-games situation where Microsoft ran a locked DRM setup, but the market didn't support that, and with the PS4 outselling the XB1 globally by a sizable margin, any future deal would have to be :
PS4 + PS3 install base multiplied by probable sales on that platform x $38 (or whatever the avg gross return is, somewhere around there, what EA gets back after a typical sale). Let's hypothetically say that by Jan 2015 we have 15M PS4 and 9M XB1 on the market. Combine that with an estimated 55M 'active' PS3 consoles (as total numbers have to be disregarded due to failures, people closeting them, etc). So that gives us : 70M Sony home console platform market. Now let's say that it's a solid AAA title that might sell at 15% install base. That's an estimated 10.5M unit sales for Sony platforms. Total gross? ~$400,000,000. So the deal with Microsoft would have to cover that number, or close to it (EA might be willing to take 'a bird in the hand' as an upfront cash deal is no-risk vs. potentially dropping a dud, though it's pretty easy to see which games will be megahits vs. those that are meh).
Now that the napkin-back math is figured, is it likely that the bean counters at Microsoft would think that $400M (before ANY marketing costs!) is worth it? No, not really. For one thing, that only gets a single title (with Titanfall, a title marketed and hyped like MAD, proven not really to be worth that kind of expense when looking at sales trends). $400M can develop MANY games, even if you account for the creation of the in-house studio. Let's see :
~$100M to buy a building that's purpose-fit for it (on-site Mocap stage, all the sound rooms, bells and whistles galore)
~$50M to buy stacks and stacks of top-end workstation PCs, and heaps of on-site clustered rendering power.
~$150M to retain a staff of 120, divided into three teams, to work on three titles simultaneously. Have a team of 60 for the two-year title, and two smaller teams of ~30 for one-year cycle games.
~$100M for misc dev costs, outsourcing for needed things, location capture, buying scripts from hollywood, buying cameos from stars, etc.
Result? Three major releases, and a fully fledged world-class dev studio, all exclusive to your control.
Or .. a single money-hatted 3rd party title that didn't even begin life natively coded specific to your console.
The choice is clear imho. Money-hatting is lazy, craven, and betrays the very consumers who support you.