Math: 70% of the Console Market Won't have access to TitanFall

[Dr.Henry_Killinger]

crissindahouse said:

like I added to my first post

"Your calculation lacks a lot of factors so that I don't even try to argue about that. Not to forget that you simply can't do a calculation like that in 5 minutes or even 5 days."

But just to mention a few things:

1. Titanfall got a lot of free marketing only because it is exlusive on Microsoft platforms. We would have never seen hundreds of Titanfall threads in every forum if it would have been on every platform. This was worth a lot but didn't cost anything.

2. Many people who can't buy it on their PS3 will simply buy it on their 360. Mentioning the Wii doesn't make any sense to me since even Ubisoft wouldn't release Titanfall on Wii but we talk about EA so that it wouldn't come to Wii U even without Microsoft. PS3 and PS4 are the only platforms the game didn't release on because of Microsoft.

3. Not sure what you think how much Microsoft would invest in a game like Titanfall if they would develop it themselves but it will be a lot and having one more studio for a game like that would cost even more as only the development of the game + marketing. They can give all that money to EA. It is probably more as many think so that EA got a lot and Microsoft can still live with the costs.

4. It really makes no sense to talk so much about so many things since we have absolutely no clue about so many data these companies gained the last years or even decades to calculate with real numbers and if some decisions make sense or not. 

These estimates are generalizations, I'm ignoring a lot of the factors cause it complicates things way too much. Thats also why I'm grosly over estimating how well TF will do on both Windows and Non Windows platforms. We can make estimations and predictions, they can be wrong but they affect decisions where we don't know the future outcome, just like Titan Fall was.

Yes. Owning Respawn would cost more than buying Titanfall, but the point is that TitanFalls current performance is indicative of how much future third party exclusives will cost MS, and that is what I see as costing less then owning studios.

Furthermore, Shadow brought up an excellent point of about a third of 360 market having access to TF, thats 26 mill. Applying the same 2/3 rule to the PS3 but then accounting for the fact that PS3 online multiplayer is free that means we don't have to divide it by 2 which means 56 million addressable on the PS3. Even if those 26 mil with 360s had ps3s, thats still 30 million which would drop to 29.9 million with the pcs

Titanfall's exclusivity was based on the predictions of how well the XB1 was gonna do, future 3rd parties have more accurate data, and thats going to cause the exclusivity price to skyrocket for MS. I dun think its sustainable. The predictated losses were managable, but this unexpected fall out is gonna wreak havoc on those models.

Obviously, MS, EA, and Sony have more accurate numbers, but I doubt it paints a picture as pretty as this.

 

Not to mention that Legs work against MS in this predictive analysis cause that just magnifies the loss as we extrapolate over time.