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Forums - Sales Discussion - Japan Sales: Media Create; Famitsu & Dengeki (Feb 10-16)

Kresnik said:
Justagamer said:

If they stick to vita, it wouldn't have made it into the top20. It's at #6, along with 12 other 3ds games in the top20...  If it sold 15k on 3ds for launch, it would sell that lifetime on vita. Why limit yourself to a maximum number of sales on vita, that would be the minimum sales on 3ds?  13 top 20 games is amazing, regardless of your personal disdain against the 3ds....


While I'm not agreeing with Ryuzaki's sentiment, the underlined sentences just aren't true at all.  When you're selling such a small amount of copies, maximum userbase doesn't mean squat, and there'a absolutely no guarantee that the games would've sold better on 3DS.

Since Magi sold ~15k FW, that's even in the ballpark of the other 3DS/Vita examples that show this isn't true:

Conception 2 - 19k FW Vita; 5k FW 3DS.

Exstetra - 11k FW Vita; 3k FW 3DS.

Even a sequel to a DS-exclusive title which went multi-plat with PSV and 3DS only managed 9k vs. 6k on Vita (Zero Escape).

While I don't think either of you are correct here (the game would've bombed regardless on what it came out on just because it isn't a desirable product by the looks of things); making sweeping statements like that about software sales (I assume) based on userbases is pretty much just flat out wrong when we're talking about such niche titles.


Ok, I didn't mean that's how it would be 100% of the time, you are right. What I was getting at, is there is simply more potential sales on the 3ds. Those games you mention simply show NOBODY wanted them, regardless of platform, because even the combined sales are pathetic. My point, and I know I didn't really make it clear, is just that you can't sell 2 million copies of a game on a system that has an install base of 1-2 million(don't know the exact figure for vita), so while not all games will necessarily sell more on 3ds, there's a lot more potential to sell games to 15 million vs 1-2 million.

 

edit: I didn't know zero escape sold so bad! That's too bad too, I loved that game(on vita), would love to see a third. Doesn't seem likely though, very sad.. :.(..  <=that's a teary face. ; )



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Justagamer said:

Ok, I didn't mean that's how it would be 100% of the time, you are right. What I was getting at, is there is simply more potential sales on the 3ds. Those games you mention simply show NOBODY wanted them, regardless of platform, because even the combined sales are pathetic. My point, and I know I didn't really make it clear, is just that you can't sell 2 million copies of a game on a system that has an install base of 1-2 million(don't know the exact figure for vita), so while not all games will necessarily sell more on 3ds, there's a lot more potential to sell games to 15 million vs 1-2 million.


Correct, but we're not talking about games which are aiming to sell 2 million copies.  Heck, if Magi had been a success we'd still only be looking at 70k LT sales (the amount of sales of its predecessor, which clearly sold enough to warrant a sequel being made).

The Vita has more than enough userbase to warrant games selling this amount.  I mean, all it needs is a userbase of 70k.  But realistically, a game isn't going to get a 100% attach rate.  Nevertheless, it has a userbase of 2.5m, which is more than enough.

I understand the argument you're trying to make but the world doesn't work as black-and-white as that.  Vita's current userbase would not be able to support a game which had sales potential of 2m+, you're right, because there aren't enough active users.  But there are more than enough active users to support games which aim to sell anywhere from 20k-300k because there is an active userbase which is interested enough.  And fortunately for Vita there are far more games aiming at lower sales like Magi then there are aiming at higher sales like Monster Hunter or whatever.



Kresnik said:
Justagamer said:

Ok, I didn't mean that's how it would be 100% of the time, you are right. What I was getting at, is there is simply more potential sales on the 3ds. Those games you mention simply show NOBODY wanted them, regardless of platform, because even the combined sales are pathetic. My point, and I know I didn't really make it clear, is just that you can't sell 2 million copies of a game on a system that has an install base of 1-2 million(don't know the exact figure for vita), so while not all games will necessarily sell more on 3ds, there's a lot more potential to sell games to 15 million vs 1-2 million.


Correct, but we're not talking about games which are aiming to sell 2 million copies.  Heck, if Magi had been a success we'd still only be looking at 70k LT sales (the amount of sales of its predecessor, which clearly sold enough to warrant a sequel being made).

The Vita has more than enough userbase to warrant games selling this amount.  I mean, all it needs is a userbase of 70k.  But realistically, a game isn't going to get a 100% attach rate.  Nevertheless, it has a userbase of 2.5m, which is more than enough.

I understand the argument you're trying to make but the world doesn't work as black-and-white as that.  Vita's current userbase would not be able to support a game which had sales potential of 2m+, you're right, because there aren't enough active users.  But there are more than enough active users to support games which aim to sell anywhere from 20k-300k because there is an active userbase which is interested enough.  And fortunately for Vita there are far more games aiming at lower sales like Magi then there are aiming at higher sales like Monster Hunter or whatever.

And this sums up why the Vita has more Japanese support than the 3DS. All of the big titles go mobile/3DS/console while the small/mid range games slide more in favor of Vita. There's just a lot more low/mid tier games than their are Pokemon and Monster Hunter.



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Mummelmann said:
trestres said:
outlawauron said:
Zero999 said:
trestres said:
As expected, catastrophic situation for the Wii U. Nothing else coming until the last day of May.

More than 3 months of Drought.

We may see sub 3k numbers. The Wii U is officially dead.

bolded: you wish. literally, you seem to wish that in your posts.

trestres loves Nintendo, he just criticizes them when they're messing up.

Indeed I do! I won a Wii U for that matter and 9 games already.

I try to be impartial. I started as a rabbid Nintendo fanboy, but later on started to realize that people like me at that time, were really useless. And Nintendo started taking the wrong direction. By 2009 my criticism grew even bigger. I'll give credit when it's deserved. For instance, I've been having a blast with the Wii U so far, unluckily, it's for short bursts, and droughts strike really hard.

You are a well balanced poster, way better than the majority, including myself


I remember you in 07 and 08, entirely different poster. It seems that a lot of people have problems distinguishing hatred from critique, I got the same flack all the time in the UNITY thread, even well-reasoned posts recieved a cold shoulder from some on the grounds of "you're just a hater", next comes the "flawed logic" argument, and so forth and so on.

For what it's worth; I think you're a good poster and we veterans know that you're a true Nintendo fan. True fans speak up when their favorite makes mistakes; it is absolutely paramount to the betterment of the industry that they do!

Thanks! Speaking about reasonable posters. You really surprised me with the qualuty of your posts. We have all evolved throughout the years.

Most of us for the better however the newer blood is more enrhusiastic



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tag - "I wouldn't trust gamespot, even if it was a live comparison."

Bets with Conegamer:

Pandora's Tower will have an opening week of less than 37k in Japan. (Won!)
Pandora's Tower will sell less than 100k lifetime in Japan.
Stakes: 1 week of avatar control for each one.

Fullfilled Prophecies

ryuzaki57 said:
Amagami and Disgaea, which are remakes, debuted around 30K. So we can be pretty sure an original game lik Magi would have performed better on Vita.

Amagami debuted at slightly over 20k, not 30k. Besides, neither Amagami nor Disgaea have anything in common with Magi, so I don't see how it makes sense to compare them.

By the way, why is it that every time a game underperforms on a Nintendo platform is the fault of said platform, yet the same doesn't apply on the rest ? Uta Kumi 575 clearly underperformed a few weeks ago on Vita. It debuted at 9700 units, then later disappeared from the chart. Did that have anything to do with the platform ? Should we arrive to the conclusion that only Hatsune Miku can sell rhythm games on Vita just based on this ?

outlawauron said:

And this sums up why the Vita has more Japanese support than the 3DS. All of the big titles go mobile/3DS/console while the small/mid range games slide more in favor of Vita. There's just a lot more low/mid tier games than their are Pokemon and Monster Hunter.

I don't think so. 3DS is full of small and medium-sized games, like Senran Kagura, Toshin Toshi, Love Plus, Game Center CX, Harvest Moon, Ace Attorney, the Guild series, Kunio-kun games, Rhythm Thief, Code of Princess, A-Train, the Touch Detective games, Metal Max 4, Phosphorescent Lanze, Island Days, Karous, several licensed games, etc. Atlus has released 5 games on the platform and has 2 more announced, which compares to 2 on Vita, one released and one announced. Marvelous has around as much games on 3DS as it has on Vita. Kadokawa does have considerably more on Vita, but I don't think it's enough to make this claim. Arc System Works supports both, but it has more exclusives on 3DS.

When you compare the lineups between Vita and 3DS in Japan, a few trends become obvious. First of all, 3DS games are largely exclusive, while Vita ones are largely multiplatform or late ports, with even a few games being ported to other platforms afterwards (Ragnarok Odyssey, Hot Shots Golf, Danball Senki W). This is the case of Toukiden, Project Diva, Final Fantasy X, God Eater, Atelier games, Super Robot Taisen games (and most of what Namco-Bandai does), Deception 4, BlazBlue games, Team Ninja games, Dynasty Warriors, etc. Most of these games are on Vita clearly because of how it's easier to port PS3 games to it compared to 3DS, while some expanded from PSP.

Secondly, a lot of the exclusive support Vita gets comes from a few usual suspects, namely Compile Heart/Idea Factory, Nippon Ichi and Gust. While these do fit your argument here, the fact that they have barely supported Nintendo platforms in the past no matter how popular these were can't be ignored. Justified or not, these companies have always being on Sony's side, so the chances of them supporting 3DS were always next to nothing. They don't even try.

The way I see it, the reason why 3DS might seem like it has less support than you would expect to (specially compared to DS) has to do with the mobile market, as evidenced by how Square-Enix and Namco-Bandai have supported it lately. But when it comes to it compared to Vita, the support greatly favors the former in most categories. The fact that it shares a lot of its lineup with PS3 is clearly limiting its potential sales-wise, making it hard to justify the purchase within Sony fans themselves.



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seiya19 said:

By the way, why is it that every time a game underperforms on a Nintendo platform is the fault of said platform, yet the same doesn't apply on the rest ? Uta Kumi 575 clearly underperformed a few weeks ago on Vita. It debuted at 9700 units, then later disappeared from the chart. Did that have anything to do with the platform ? Should we arrive to the conclusion that only Hatsune Miku can sell rhythm games on Vita just based on this ?

If you haven't realised that's his "thing" by now then I don't know what to say.  Feel free to point out the Vita bombs yourself if it's bothering you, because 575 did indeed do horribly and it doesn't bode well for things like IA/VT and indeed Persona 4 that the market seems cornered by Miku.

seiya19 said:

When you compare the lineups between Vita and 3DS in Japan, a few trends become obvious. First of all, 3DS games are largely exclusive, while Vita ones are largely multiplatform or late ports, with even a few games being ported to other platforms afterwards (Ragnarok Odyssey, Hot Shots Golf, Danball Senki W). This is the case of Toukiden, Project Diva, Final Fantasy X, God Eater, Atelier games, Super Robot Taisen games (and most of what Namco-Bandai does), Deception 4, BlazBlue games, Team Ninja games, Dynasty Warriors, etc. Most of these games are on Vita clearly because of how it's easier to port PS3 games to it compared to 3DS, while some expanded from PSP.

I don't see why what he said and what you just said have to be mutally exclusive.  3DS does get more exclusives and Vita does get more ports.  Does that mean Vita's support "doesn't count" because it's ports?  Of course not.

His point about games being smaller and needing to hit lesser sales targets is exactly why these ports exists.  Due to the (supposed) ease of porting between PSP; PS3 & PSV, if a company can whack a Vita SKU on a game they're already developing or code over a PS3 title from a few years ago to Vita then they'll do it, because it's a cheap investment and it nets moderate profits.  Which is what a lot of these companies are about.

And Vita's userbase is sizeable and apparently keen enough to support these ports, which brings us back full circle.



I don't think Magi would have done any better on Vita, nor should it have been on Vita. For starters, the first Magi game was on 3DS. Second, 3DS is an appropriate platform for shonen manga as a children's platform. The reason for low Magi sales can be at least partially attributed to children, with their extremely limited funds, buying Dragon Quest since that is what's popular with their peers. Also the first game wasn't very well received, so that would damage repeat sales. But there really is no comparison with games like Conception or Exstetra doing better on Vita.

If you want to talk about a game bombing due to being put on the wrong platform, Toushin Toshi comes to mind. I think it would have sold double on Vita. Major blunder by Imageepoch in terms of reading demographics.



LOL @ GTAV getting a 67 in reader reviews. They'll give that poor scores but a cheaply made anime game where you romance girls and they all sing in maid outfits and act "kawaii" they'll eat that shit up.



Kresnik said:

If you haven't realised that's his "thing" by now then I don't know what to say.  Feel free to point out the Vita bombs yourself if it's bothering you, because 575 did indeed do horribly and it doesn't bode well for things like IA/VT and indeed Persona 4 that the market seems cornered by Miku.

Yes, I'm aware of his post history. I don't see how this justifies it though... And since not everyone follows the Japanese market or knows about his previous posts, I believe it's worth addressing the obvious double-standards from time to time at least. "A lie repeated a thousand times becomes the truth", and I certainly don't want that to happen. I'm already quite tired of hearing how 3rd party games can't find success on Nintendo's home consoles, and I don't want to see that spread to 3DS. I know it's far from being important and my comments will be largely ignored anyway, but at least I said my piece.

As far as the rhythm market goes, I was obviously being disingenous, as evidenced by the context. There's no evidence that the platform had anything to do with 575 underperforming, nor evidence of Miku being the only franchise capable of succeed in the genre. Theatrythm and Rhythm Heaven already prove the opposite, and I think the spinoffs from Persona 4 and Senran Kagura have a good chance of being successful in their own degrees. Maybe SoniPro on 3DS too. It's more difficult for new IPs though, but hardly impossible.

Kresnik said:

I don't see why what he said and what you just said have to be mutally exclusive.  3DS does get more exclusives and Vita does get more ports.  Does that mean Vita's support "doesn't count" because it's ports?  Of course not.

His point about games being smaller and needing to hit lesser sales targets is exactly why these ports exists.  Due to the (supposed) ease of porting between PSP; PS3 & PSV, if a company can whack a Vita SKU on a game they're already developing or code over a PS3 title from a few years ago to Vita then they'll do it, because it's a cheap investment and it nets moderate profits.  Which is what a lot of these companies are about.

And Vita's userbase is sizeable and apparently keen enough to support these ports, which brings us back full circle.

Ports still count of course, but I don't think they should be put on the same level as new exclusives from the ground up. It's a riskier endeavour to do the latter in many ways as you recognize yourself, so the fact that 3DS gets far more of them proves that even small and medium-sized games arguably favor said platform as much or more than Vita. outlawauron clearly claimed the opposite, stating that "small/mid range games slide more in favor of Vita". My point is that this is not true, taking into account the things I mentioned. The main reason a lot of those ports exist is largely driven by the hardware similarities between PS3 and Vita, with the success of the former being key here. The premise of selling to the "Playstation audience" also exists of course, but in less degree. In addition, let's not forget here that HD development is clearly more expensive than 3DS one, specially multiplatform. While this doesn't apply as much to niche developers who are already on a budget, it does apply to bigger projects, like the ones from Namco for example.

And my points didn't state anything about questioning said support in the matter of profitability, just that the potential of the platform is limited by said strategy. Or are you going to disagree with the idea that these games would favor Vita more if they were exclusive to the platform in both software and hardware sales ?



BaldrSkies said:

If you want to talk about a game bombing due to being put on the wrong platform, Toushin Toshi comes to mind. I think it would have sold double on Vita. Major blunder by Imageepoch in terms of reading demographics.

See, there's no evidence of this... Toushin Toshi did 23k first week. That's more than what Exstetra did on 3DS and Vita FW combined, and as much as Conception II did also FW on both platforms combined. Where's the evidence of this "bombing" or being capable of selling better on Vita ? Is it just the belief that anything "otaku" can sell better on it, regardless of how it's done or the difference in install bases ? And even if this were the case, does it mean that by the same logic every 3rd party platformer should be on a Nintendo platform no matter the situation of said platform ?

Love Plus and Senran Kagura have already proven how 3DS can sell niche software directed at "otaku", beyond what Toushin Toshi did. This should be enough to at least give the benefit of the doubt to the platform here.

All this aside, the choice of platform for Toushin Toshi or Soni Pro might not had been up to ImageEpoch, but the respective IP owners. And/or, ImageEpoch might have chosen 3DS as the platform to focus on from the start, as they have an SRPG game in development that could very well end up on 3DS, like the Luminous Arc games were on DS.