By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Gaming Discussion - By this time next year how much will each console have sold: Predictions

Seece on 04 December 2013
Zero999 said:
lt_dan_27 said:
Zero999 said:

bolded: no.

bolded 2: fallacy, altough ps4 had an amazing launch, this ratio is due to wii u's low 2013 sales. looking at it more logicaly, ps4 should end up 2013 with under 3M. in other words, just 33% more than wii u in 2012. see the difference? of course you do.

the fact is that sales are picking up for wii u and there's a huge amount of titles already announced for 2014.

I messed up the first bolded quote, let me rephrase that. I meant to say both the xbox one and ps4 have overtaken the wiiU's lifetime sales in the UK. Sorry about that. Also, the ps4 IS at 2.1 million units. That's a quote FROM SONY. So you're right, the ps4 has sold more than half the lifetime of the wiiU's sales, and it was in 16 days, not two weeks, sorry.  I don't see where your under 3m for ps4 idea comes from for the ps4. We know that the ps4 has over 2 million back orders in the US alone. So, the PS4 will easily be to 3 million by the end of the year, and possibly more if they can keep up with demand. Theny you're also ignoring the fact demand for the wiiU fell off a massive cliff after 2012, and it has NEVER recovered. Also, just under 3 million means 50% more than 2 million. Your so called recovery in sales is simply because of the holiday season, and it's sales aren't nearly as good as it's launch. Look at every other launch, the next years holiday season sales are usually higher, NOT a quarter. So no, I don't see your point. The ps4 clearly has a higer demand. Also, you can't say low 2013 sales, when 2013 has made up over 85% of it's time on the market. So yeah, none of your points are valid. 

wii u sold 2.25m in 2012, so just under 3m IS 33% more. the wii u sales HAVE recovered and the killer 2014 lineup will only make it better and better.

considering ps4 WORLDWIDE preorders of around 1.6M, I don't see where your idea that ps4 has 2m orders in US alone, AFTER LAUNCH. what i know is that those 2.1m indicate a black friday of around 220k in america, and the prospects are that it will go down on the next weeks.

OF COURSE I CAN SAY LOW 2013 SALES, why wouldn't I? the whole point is to prove your fallacy that tries to inflate ps4's situation when a better comparison shows it won't end 2013 that much better than wii u 2012.

With an extra 90% time to achieve it, when you compare the holidays YOY it'll be down.

DK won't push many consoles, Smash and Kart are the two big ones. Zelda isn't confirmed is it? Bayo and X ... I don't need to tell you they won't do anything. Then again you though Sonic would do some damage as well and look how that turned out.

PS4 is (for real) supply constrained, I don't know how that's hard to understand given it's sold 2.1m in such a short space of time, much faster than WiiU did.



 

Around the Network
GdaTyler on 04 December 2013
justiceiro said:
Wiiu: 7.5m
PS4: 15m
X1:9m
psvita: 7m
3DS: 45m

With your predicitions it seems that Vita is discontinued by January and 3DS is discontinued by Q2 2014?



3DS Friend Code: 0533 - 6146 - 0418
PSN ID: atylerman5

GdaTyler on 04 December 2013
Sirius87 said:
PS4 - 13.5m
XOne - 10m
WiiU - 9.5m
3DS - 52.5m
PSV - 11.5m


Too generous for Vita.



3DS Friend Code: 0533 - 6146 - 0418
PSN ID: atylerman5

Zero999 on 04 December 2013
Seece said:

With an extra 90% time to achieve it, when you compare the holidays YOY it'll be down.

DK won't push many consoles, Smash and Kart are the two big ones. Zelda isn't confirmed is it? Bayo and X ... I don't need to tell you they won't do anything. Then again you though Sonic would do some damage as well and look how that turned out.

PS4 is (for real) supply constrained, I don't know how that's hard to understand given it's sold 2.1m in such a short space of time, much faster than WiiU did.

zelda is confirmed untill nintendo says otherwise. mario kart and smash are huge, donkey kong is very big. bayo and X are not AS BIG as the previously mentioned titles, but there are people who will buy the console for them and their combined appeal adds value. there are also many games that will be announced next year, as well as already announced games being confirmed for wii u.



Seece on 04 December 2013
Zero999 said:
Seece said:

With an extra 90% time to achieve it, when you compare the holidays YOY it'll be down.

DK won't push many consoles, Smash and Kart are the two big ones. Zelda isn't confirmed is it? Bayo and X ... I don't need to tell you they won't do anything. Then again you though Sonic would do some damage as well and look how that turned out.

PS4 is (for real) supply constrained, I don't know how that's hard to understand given it's sold 2.1m in such a short space of time, much faster than WiiU did.

zelda is confirmed untill nintendo says otherwise. mario kart and smash are huge, donkey kong is very big. bayo and X are not AS BIG as the previously mentioned titles, but there are people who will buy the console for them and their combined appeal adds value. there are also many games that will be announced next year, as well as already announced games being confirmed for wii u.

Right, so it isn't confirmed, gotcha.

DK is about as big as 3D Mario, actually if you look at last gen it's about 50% less. If Mario 3D is failing to shift consoles on a decent level (in November no less) DK in February isn't going to get the numbers you're hoping for. Bayo and X will be a drop in the ocean in terms of consoles bought for them.

What other great games are coming? What else is confirmed that is going to shift hardware?



 

Around the Network
WagnerPaiva on 04 December 2013

Xbox One: 8 million.
PS4: 9 million.
WiiU: 7 million.
PSVita: 8 million.
3DS: 43 million.

PS3: 84 million.

Xbox 360: 81 million.

Wii: 102 million.



My grammar errors are justified by the fact that I am a brazilian living in Brazil. I am also very stupid.

Mummelmann on 04 December 2013
Seece said:
Zero999 said:
Seece said:

With an extra 90% time to achieve it, when you compare the holidays YOY it'll be down.

DK won't push many consoles, Smash and Kart are the two big ones. Zelda isn't confirmed is it? Bayo and X ... I don't need to tell you they won't do anything. Then again you though Sonic would do some damage as well and look how that turned out.

PS4 is (for real) supply constrained, I don't know how that's hard to understand given it's sold 2.1m in such a short space of time, much faster than WiiU did.

zelda is confirmed untill nintendo says otherwise. mario kart and smash are huge, donkey kong is very big. bayo and X are not AS BIG as the previously mentioned titles, but there are people who will buy the console for them and their combined appeal adds value. there are also many games that will be announced next year, as well as already announced games being confirmed for wii u.

Right, so it isn't confirmed, gotcha.

DK is about as big as 3D Mario, actually if you look at last gen it's about 50% less. If Mario 3D is failing to shift consoles on a decent level (in November no less) DK in February isn't going to get the numbers you're hoping for. Bayo and X will be a drop in the ocean in terms of consoles bought for them.

What other great games are coming? What else is confirmed that is going to shift hardware?

Bayonetta 2 will be lucky to see 300k lifetime, look at the current sales of 3rd party software, most of it hovering in the 100k area or well below, a single third party title has brached the 500k barrier so far.

Donkey Kong is certainly smaller than Mario and Zelda is unconfirmed (which means confirmed in topsy-turvy land), X is a complete joker, could be big could be almost nothing. That leaves Mario Kart and Smash, both of which are undoubtedly huge but their combined might, hell the combined might of all these titles will not drive several hundred percent yoy increases.

I don't see how 2014 has such a "stellar" (Reggie mode engage) line-up, it's the usual suspects plus some specks of dirt on the radar. I would not be surprised if both the other two 8th gen consoles had caught and passed the Wii U in software sales by the end of Q2 2014 at this rate.



lt_dan_27 on 04 December 2013
Zero999 said:
lt_dan_27 said:
Zero999 said:

bolded: no.

bolded 2: fallacy, altough ps4 had an amazing launch, this ratio is due to wii u's low 2013 sales. looking at it more logicaly, ps4 should end up 2013 with under 3M. in other words, just 33% more than wii u in 2012. see the difference? of course you do.

the fact is that sales are picking up for wii u and there's a huge amount of titles already announced for 2014.

I messed up the first bolded quote, let me rephrase that. I meant to say both the xbox one and ps4 have overtaken the wiiU's lifetime sales in the UK. Sorry about that. Also, the ps4 IS at 2.1 million units. That's a quote FROM SONY. So you're right, the ps4 has sold more than half the lifetime of the wiiU's sales, and it was in 16 days, not two weeks, sorry.  I don't see where your under 3m for ps4 idea comes from for the ps4. We know that the ps4 has over 2 million back orders in the US alone. So, the PS4 will easily be to 3 million by the end of the year, and possibly more if they can keep up with demand. Theny you're also ignoring the fact demand for the wiiU fell off a massive cliff after 2012, and it has NEVER recovered. Also, just under 3 million means 50% more than 2 million. Your so called recovery in sales is simply because of the holiday season, and it's sales aren't nearly as good as it's launch. Look at every other launch, the next years holiday season sales are usually higher, NOT a quarter. So no, I don't see your point. The ps4 clearly has a higer demand. Also, you can't say low 2013 sales, when 2013 has made up over 85% of it's time on the market. So yeah, none of your points are valid. 

wii u sold 2.25m in 2012, so just under 3m IS 33% more. the wii u sales HAVE recovered and the killer 2014 lineup will only make it better and better.

considering ps4 WORLDWIDE preorders of around 1.6M, I don't see where your idea that ps4 has 2m orders in US alone, AFTER LAUNCH. what i know is that those 2.1m indicate a black friday of around 220k in america, and the prospects are that it will go down on the next weeks.

OF COURSE I CAN SAY LOW 2013 SALES, why wouldn't I? the whole point is to prove your fallacy that tries to inflate ps4's situation when a better comparison shows it won't end 2013 that much better than wii u 2012.


You aren't very good at math. And also, there are more than 2 million units sold, sooooo I'm pretty sure that your numbers make absolutely no sense. I didn't say orders, I'm saying that gamestop is reporting an INCREDIBLY high demand for the ps4. Also, the reason that the ps4 "only" got 220k in the US on black friday was because most of their product was being sent to Europe because their launch was on our black friday. 

Now to your first argument. WiiU sold 2.25 million in a month and a half, or about 6 weeks. The ps4's first two weeks that have been recorded report a similar number (2.1 million), which means that the ps4 is currently selling 3 times better than the wiiU's launch. You can call this a fallacy all you want, but the fact is, I'm supporting all of my facts with numbers, and not emotion. Plus, the ps4 is almost definitely going to go over 3 million, maybe even this week. We don't know until we see the number. All I'm seeing you do is back up your points with BS information. 

I mentioned you talking about low 2013 sales because you were talking about it as if they can be negated completely. Those sales are incrediblt important, it shows that no one, except for a few hardcore fanboys, really cared about it. Sales dropping off of a cliff like that is really bad news. 



Zero999 on 05 December 2013
lt_dan_27 said:


You aren't very good at math. And also, there are more than 2 million units sold, sooooo I'm pretty sure that your numbers make absolutely no sense. I didn't say orders, I'm saying that gamestop is reporting an INCREDIBLY high demand for the ps4. Also, the reason that the ps4 "only" got 220k in the US on black friday was because most of their product was being sent to Europe because their launch was on our black friday. 

Now to your first argument. WiiU sold 2.25 million in a month and a half, or about 6 weeks. The ps4's first two weeks that have been recorded report a similar number (2.1 million), which means that the ps4 is currently selling 3 times better than the wiiU's launch. You can call this a fallacy all you want, but the fact is, I'm supporting all of my facts with numbers, and not emotion. Plus, the ps4 is almost definitely going to go over 3 million, maybe even this week. We don't know until we see the number. All I'm seeing you do is back up your points with BS information. 

I mentioned you talking about low 2013 sales because you were talking about it as if they can be negated completely. Those sales are incrediblt important, it shows that no one, except for a few hardcore fanboys, really cared about it. Sales dropping off of a cliff like that is really bad news. 

wii u launch was 970k, how is that 3 times less than ps4's 1.7m launch?

"Plus, the ps4 is almost definitely going to go over 3 million" you expect launch numbers again?



DerNebel on 05 December 2013
Zero999 said:

wii u launch was 970k, how is that 3 times less than ps4's 1.7m launch?

"Plus, the ps4 is almost definitely going to go over 3 million" you expect launch numbers again?

Oh, so the PS4 has launched in Japan already? I wasn't aware of that... The Wii U has launched with about 650k in the west. compared to the PS4 with about 1.8 million, so the Wii U sold about 2.75 times less than the PS4.

lt_dan is a bit optimistic if he thinks that the PS4 is cracking 3 million this week, supply is simply not there for that to happen, but if you think the console won't get to 3 million this december then you're in for a rude awakening.