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Forums - Sales Discussion - 8th gen sales by Jan 1 2015

DM235 on 10 July 2013
MDMAlliance said:
DM235 said:
MDMAlliance said:
DM235 said:
Seeing as 360 did 8.0 mil, PS3 did 9.2 mil and the Wii did 19.5 mil in that time frame, my predictions are as follows:

X1 = 7.0 mil
PS4 = 10.2 mil
WiiU = 9.5 mil

My reasoning? With all of the negative press, X1 will lose 1.0 mil to PS4. I know that pre-orders in the US for software seem to indicate a 2:1 split (Call of Duty: Ghosts, which would generally be favored on Xbox, is currently tracking at 31.8k for PS4 and 17.5k for X1), but I think this will change as people forget about E3 and MS gears up its marketing machine.

I also think the WiiU will do half the amount the Wii did.

3DS = 55 mil
Vita = 10 mil

If Sony pushes the Vita as a second screen for the PS4, sales may improve, but right now I am assuming they will not.

I don't think the 3DS will be as high as people think, because more people will be playing on phones / iPods than before.

I don't think in the next two years that the market for smart phones will grow so much it will make the 3DS only sell 22-23m in 17 months.  Especially considering the 3DS has only been out for a little over 2 years, a good portion of which were slow times for the 3DS.


The 3DS did 13 mil in 2011 and 14 mil in 2012.  I expect 2013 and 2014 to be repeats of 2012 (14 mil each).  So far, the year-over-year comparison for 2013 vs 2012 has supported this.  Unless Nintendo releases an updated 3DS model, I don't expect anything to change.  I think that any gains due to popularity or improvements in its software library will be lost due to people shifting to mobile platforms.


I don't think so.


I have seen way too many kids with iPads and iPods playing games for me to ignore them.  Also the 3DS is tracking much lower than the DS, and we know that they are not losing that many sales to Vita. 

If you have a better explanation I would love to hear it.



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Heavenly_King on 10 July 2013

PS4: 15M
XBO: 12M
WiiU: 14M



Open World-Survival-Game Days Gone

Zero999 on 10 July 2013
NintendoPie said:
MDMAlliance said:


Actually I said 22m for Wii U as well.  I didn't want to give a guess at first, because I have no idea and I am just going for my high estimate. A lot can happen in a year and a half.  
Although I would say anything under 20m would be low for Jan 1, 2016.

22 Million is too high going off of the information that we have right now.

Of course the Wii U could reach that once 2016 rolls around. I would suspect it reaching higher, of course.

the information we have right now = a shit ton of big exclusives for wii u for 2013 and 2014.



Zero999 on 10 July 2013
DM235 said:
MDMAlliance said:
DM235 said:
Seeing as 360 did 8.0 mil, PS3 did 9.2 mil and the Wii did 19.5 mil in that time frame, my predictions are as follows:

X1 = 7.0 mil
PS4 = 10.2 mil
WiiU = 9.5 mil

My reasoning? With all of the negative press, X1 will lose 1.0 mil to PS4. I know that pre-orders in the US for software seem to indicate a 2:1 split (Call of Duty: Ghosts, which would generally be favored on Xbox, is currently tracking at 31.8k for PS4 and 17.5k for X1), but I think this will change as people forget about E3 and MS gears up its marketing machine.

I also think the WiiU will do half the amount the Wii did.

3DS = 55 mil
Vita = 10 mil

If Sony pushes the Vita as a second screen for the PS4, sales may improve, but right now I am assuming they will not.

I don't think the 3DS will be as high as people think, because more people will be playing on phones / iPods than before.

I don't think in the next two years that the market for smart phones will grow so much it will make the 3DS only sell 22-23m in 17 months.  Especially considering the 3DS has only been out for a little over 2 years, a good portion of which were slow times for the 3DS.


The 3DS did 13 mil in 2011 and 14 mil in 2012.  I expect 2013 and 2014 to be repeats of 2012 (14 mil each).  So far, the year-over-year comparison for 2013 vs 2012 has supported this.  Unless Nintendo releases an updated 3DS model, I don't expect anything to change.  I think that any gains due to popularity or improvements in its software library will be lost due to people shifting to mobile platforms.

POKÉMON!!! if that wasn't enough already, it's also getting a sequel to tone of the top 3 zeldas ever: a link to the past 2. japan is also getting monster hunter 4 and some other good titles like mario party 3d, shin megami tensei 4, mario and luigi... and that's just for 2013, who knows what they have in store for 2014.



Zero999 on 10 July 2013
DM235 said:
MDMAlliance said:
DM235 said:


The 3DS did 13 mil in 2011 and 14 mil in 2012.  I expect 2013 and 2014 to be repeats of 2012 (14 mil each).  So far, the year-over-year comparison for 2013 vs 2012 has supported this.  Unless Nintendo releases an updated 3DS model, I don't expect anything to change.  I think that any gains due to popularity or improvements in its software library will be lost due to people shifting to mobile platforms.


I don't think so.


I have seen way too many kids with iPads and iPods playing games for me to ignore them.  Also the 3DS is tracking much lower than the DS, and we know that they are not losing that many sales to Vita. 

If you have a better explanation I would love to hear it.

it's not tracking much lower than ds and let's be honest, tracking bellow the best selling system ever is not exactly a bad thing by itself.



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MDMAlliance on 10 July 2013
DM235 said:
MDMAlliance said:
DM235 said:


The 3DS did 13 mil in 2011 and 14 mil in 2012.  I expect 2013 and 2014 to be repeats of 2012 (14 mil each).  So far, the year-over-year comparison for 2013 vs 2012 has supported this.  Unless Nintendo releases an updated 3DS model, I don't expect anything to change.  I think that any gains due to popularity or improvements in its software library will be lost due to people shifting to mobile platforms.


I don't think so.


I have seen way too many kids with iPads and iPods playing games for me to ignore them.  Also the 3DS is tracking much lower than the DS, and we know that they are not losing that many sales to Vita. 

If you have a better explanation I would love to hear it.


What you personally see is a horrible way to estimate what the actual market is like.  
Also, guessing that the 3DS will be 60m+ by its 4th year on the market is still saying that it would be tracking under the DS.
At that point in the DS' life, it had already passed 80m.



zorg1000 on 11 July 2013
haxxiy said:
MDMAlliance said:
 


I was just saying that if they really believe it will be around 12m, they are expecting the Wii U to not have any significant games to boost sales past its current state.  
So that would mean they wont think Bayonetta 2, Pikmin 3, Super Smash Bros, Mario Kart 8, 3D Mario, X, possibly Shin Megami Tensei X Fire Emblem, and more games that are bound to come before Jan 1 2015 will do the trick (plus a price cut).  
The thing is that the Gamecube and Wii U were in different situations, albeit they seem to struggle the same.  
Also, looking at gamecubes World Wide sales doesn't tell the entire story, look at it by region.  Gamecube DID sell in North America.  It did not, however, in Europe and Japan.  From what it looks like, Wii U is doing roughly the same in each region.  


It's debatable if the GC North American sales would be considered relevant nowadays though. But I think you are right.


I think what GC did is irrelevant nowadays. Wii U is coming off the success of a console that will sell over 100m while GC was coming off the heels of a 33m console. Most of Nintendo key franchises on GC went wierd routes. At spaceworld 2000 nintendo showed off Mario 128 and a dark Zelda, people were expecting those but instead got cartoon Zelda and Mario vacarion spin-off, Donkey Kong only had music/rhythm games, Kirby only had a racing game, Star Fox left the cockpit to fight dinosaurs, Metroid became a FPS (this one payed off), the only main franchises that didnt drastically change were Mario Kart and Smash Bros. Also GC had PS2 to deal with which came out a year earlier, was one of the first affordable DVD players and had most of the big franchises exclusive, I dont see Wii U comp being nearly that dominant. So there are a few reasons that GC and Wii U are completely different situations.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Turkish on 11 July 2013
zorg1000 said:
Turkish said:
zorg1000 said:

3DS-64 million

Vita-14 million

Wii U-18 million

PS4-12 million

One-8 million

3ds and wiiu are ridicilously high

Not really, they may be a bit on the high side but not ridicilously. 3DS did 14 million last year with only Paper Mario as a holiday title, this year Iit has Pokemon+Zelda and Monster Hunter 4 in Japan so YoY shoild be higher. Id say 16-18 million which would put it at 43-45 million. Next could very well see a price cut and redesign plus possible games such as Pokemon Z, Smash Bros, Dragon Quest 11 and some smaller titles like Metroid, Kirby, Yoshi, Advance Wars. 15-20 is def possible in 2014 which would put it anywhere between 58-65 million.

As for Wii U, by the end of the month it should be around 3.3 million, it has 5 decent sized exclusives from Aug-Oct, Pikmin, Luigi U, W101, Wind Waker, Party U so id say a total of 1 million in those three minths. In Nov/Dec there are 3 big titles in DKC, Fit U, 3D World all very big sellers, that plus holiday deals/bundles like Basic-$199 and Deluxe w/extra game-$299 will give it a strong holiday season. 3 million isnt out of the question so 7-8 million by the end of the year. Q1 next year could be slow but likely still up YoY then in April Mario Kart 8+pricr cut will push alot of units. Follow that up with Smash Bros in the summer and Zelda+Wii Sports U in thr holiday and some smaller exclusives like Yarn Yoshi, Bayonetta, X, SMTxFE and a few other unnanounced games mixed in between the big titles. 8-10 million is surely possiblr in 2014 putting it at 15-18 million.

Just for reference could I see ur numbers and a break down explaining why u dont think my numbers are possible?


Some wishful thinking here, when did DQ11 get announced, who says its coming out next year? Btw, you expect 3DS to sell another 13m units in 2013? hmmm... I doubt WiiU will reach 7 million by the end of the year, unless they have a pricecut(and they will). But if it does have a pricecut in the holidays it wont get another pricecut few months later in Spring 2014.

 

My numbers for jan 2014:

3ds: 41m

wiiu: 7m

360: 82m

ps3: 83m

vita: 8m

xb1: +-2m

ps4: +-2m (both next gen consoles will sell well due to fanbase early adopting)

jan 2015:

3ds: 55m

wiiu: 15m

360: 86m

ps3: 89m

vita: 14m

xb1: 7m

ps4: 10m



DanneSandin on 11 July 2013

3DS: 58m
Vita: 13m
Wii U: 15m
PS4: 12m
X1: 8m



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

DM235 on 11 July 2013
Zero999 said:
DM235 said:
MDMAlliance said:
DM235 said:


The 3DS did 13 mil in 2011 and 14 mil in 2012.  I expect 2013 and 2014 to be repeats of 2012 (14 mil each).  So far, the year-over-year comparison for 2013 vs 2012 has supported this.  Unless Nintendo releases an updated 3DS model, I don't expect anything to change.  I think that any gains due to popularity or improvements in its software library will be lost due to people shifting to mobile platforms.


I don't think so.


I have seen way too many kids with iPads and iPods playing games for me to ignore them.  Also the 3DS is tracking much lower than the DS, and we know that they are not losing that many sales to Vita. 

If you have a better explanation I would love to hear it.

it's not tracking much lower than ds and let's be honest, tracking bellow the best selling system ever is not exactly a bad thing by itself.

I'm not saying that it's bad, just that the 3DS will not copy the success of the DS.