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Forums - Sales Discussion - 8th gen sales by Jan 1 2015

DM235 on 11 July 2013
MDMAlliance said:
DM235 said:
MDMAlliance said:
DM235 said:


The 3DS did 13 mil in 2011 and 14 mil in 2012.  I expect 2013 and 2014 to be repeats of 2012 (14 mil each).  So far, the year-over-year comparison for 2013 vs 2012 has supported this.  Unless Nintendo releases an updated 3DS model, I don't expect anything to change.  I think that any gains due to popularity or improvements in its software library will be lost due to people shifting to mobile platforms.


I don't think so.


I have seen way too many kids with iPads and iPods playing games for me to ignore them.  Also the 3DS is tracking much lower than the DS, and we know that they are not losing that many sales to Vita. 

If you have a better explanation I would love to hear it.


What you personally see is a horrible way to estimate what the actual market is like.  
Also, guessing that the 3DS will be 60m+ by its 4th year on the market is still saying that it would be tracking under the DS.
At that point in the DS' life, it had already passed 80m.

That's exactly my point, that it would be tracking under the DS.  In my opinion, the PSP was a stronger competitor against the DS, and yet it still did amazingly well.  Right now the 3DS is tracking under the DS, and don't think that the Vita is what is stealing all of the customers away.

Everyone has their own opinion, and I can only base mine on what I see.  A few years ago, I would see lots of people playing on their DS on commutes or shopping trips.  I see a lot less of that now.  So unless everyone just plays their 3DS at home, I have to assume that the smartphones and tablets I see everyone playing on are taking away sales.



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DM235 on 11 July 2013

Just to put things into perspective, here is the VGChartz info for the DS:

2004 - 2.9 mil (in 2 months)
2005 - 11.8 mil (13.9 mil in 15 m)
2006 - 20.8 mil (34.7 mil in 27 m)
2007 - 29.3 mil (64.0 mil in 39 m)
2008 - 29.5 mil (93.5 mil in 51 m)

Here is the info for the 3DS (including my estimates):

2011 - 13.3 mil (in 9 months)
2012 - 14.4 mil (27.7 mil in 21 m)
2013 - 4.6 mil YTD, estimated by me at 14 mil (estimating 41 mil in 33 m)
2014 - 14 mil estimated by me (estimating 55 mil in 45 m)

Nintendo's forecast for the 3DS for 2012 was 15 mil, but they only sold 14 mil. They are forecasting 18 mil for 2013, but so far sales for this year are 4.6 mil vs 4.8 mil for the same time last year, indicating a decline. This is far different from the DS, which really took off in its 3rd year. The DS also tracked higher each Christmas season for its first few years, yet the 3DS had worse sales in its second Christmas season compared to its first.

Based on all of that, I think my estimate is sound.

Is it possible that Nintendo will do a hardware refresh, price cut and release some spectacular new games that will make sales take off? Sure, that could happen. I am just not counting on it.



zorg1000 on 11 July 2013
Turkish said:
zorg1000 said:
Turkish said:
zorg1000 said:

3DS-64 million

Vita-14 million

Wii U-18 million

PS4-12 million

One-8 million

3ds and wiiu are ridicilously high

Not really, they may be a bit on the high side but not ridicilously. 3DS did 14 million last year with only Paper Mario as a holiday title, this year Iit has Pokemon+Zelda and Monster Hunter 4 in Japan so YoY shoild be higher. Id say 16-18 million which would put it at 43-45 million. Next could very well see a price cut and redesign plus possible games such as Pokemon Z, Smash Bros, Dragon Quest 11 and some smaller titles like Metroid, Kirby, Yoshi, Advance Wars. 15-20 is def possible in 2014 which would put it anywhere between 58-65 million.

As for Wii U, by the end of the month it should be around 3.3 million, it has 5 decent sized exclusives from Aug-Oct, Pikmin, Luigi U, W101, Wind Waker, Party U so id say a total of 1 million in those three minths. In Nov/Dec there are 3 big titles in DKC, Fit U, 3D World all very big sellers, that plus holiday deals/bundles like Basic-$199 and Deluxe w/extra game-$299 will give it a strong holiday season. 3 million isnt out of the question so 7-8 million by the end of the year. Q1 next year could be slow but likely still up YoY then in April Mario Kart 8+pricr cut will push alot of units. Follow that up with Smash Bros in the summer and Zelda+Wii Sports U in thr holiday and some smaller exclusives like Yarn Yoshi, Bayonetta, X, SMTxFE and a few other unnanounced games mixed in between the big titles. 8-10 million is surely possiblr in 2014 putting it at 15-18 million.

Just for reference could I see ur numbers and a break down explaining why u dont think my numbers are possible?


Some wishful thinking here, when did DQ11 get announced, who says its coming out next year? Btw, you expect 3DS to sell another 13m units in 2013? hmmm... I doubt WiiU will reach 7 million by the end of the year, unless they have a pricecut(and they will). But if it does have a pricecut in the holidays it wont get another pricecut few months later in Spring 2014.

 

My numbers for jan 2014:

3ds: 41m

wiiu: 7m

360: 82m

ps3: 83m

vita: 8m

xb1: +-2m

ps4: +-2m (both next gen consoles will sell well due to fanbase early adopting)

jan 2015:

3ds: 55m

wiiu: 15m

360: 86m

ps3: 89m

vita: 14m

xb1: 7m

ps4: 10m

Well most of the games I listed havent been announced, I was simply saying I could picture those games releasing next year. Also all my numbers are my high end guesses, ill post my low end predictions as well.

3DS, 58-64 million

Vita, 11-14 million

Wii U, 14-18 million

PS4, 9-12 million

One, 6-8 million

As for Wii U price cut, I dont see one coming this year, I think the strategy is going to be games, advertising and holiday deals/bundles. No need for a pre-emprive price drop since we dont know how well the new consoles will sell and like u said most of there launch sales will be from thr loyal fanbase. Next spring once all the consoles have reached there baseline sales is when they should do it. Basic-$199, Deluxe Mario Kart 8 bundle-$299 looks appealing compared to $400-500 consoles without a game included.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 on 11 July 2013
DM235 said:
Just to put things into perspective, here is the VGChartz info for the DS:

2004 - 2.9 mil (in 2 months)
2005 - 11.8 mil (13.9 mil in 15 m)
2006 - 20.8 mil (34.7 mil in 27 m)
2007 - 29.3 mil (64.0 mil in 39 m)
2008 - 29.5 mil (93.5 mil in 51 m)

Here is the info for the 3DS (including my estimates):

2011 - 13.3 mil (in 9 months)
2012 - 14.4 mil (27.7 mil in 21 m)
2013 - 4.6 mil YTD, estimated by me at 14 mil (estimating 41 mil in 33 m)
2014 - 14 mil estimated by me (estimating 55 mil in 45 m)

Nintendo's forecast for the 3DS for 2012 was 15 mil, but they only sold 14 mil. They are forecasting 18 mil for 2013, but so far sales for this year are 4.6 mil vs 4.8 mil for the same time last year, indicating a decline. This is far different from the DS, which really took off in its 3rd year. The DS also tracked higher each Christmas season for its first few years, yet the 3DS had worse sales in its second Christmas season compared to its first.

Based on all of that, I think my estimate is sound.

Is it possible that Nintendo will do a hardware refresh, price cut and release some spectacular new games that will make sales take off? Sure, that could happen. I am just not counting on it.

Well to be fair look at the 1st holiday line up vs 2nd holiday.

Mario Kart+3D Land+Monster Hunter 3G (Japan)

Vs

Paper Mario+ Animal Crossing (Japan)

This holiday should be better

Pokemon X/Y+Zelda+Monster Hunter 4 (Japan)

That is also why the early part of this year sales were down YoY, didnt have as much post holiday momentum.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

camilosanchez16 on 26 November 2013

Jan 2014
Wii U: 7.1 M
3DS: 45.2 M
PS Vita: 8 M
PS4: 3.5 M
XBO: 3.1 M
PS3: 86.6
X360: 85.3
Wii: 101.7

Jan 2015
Wii U: 15.5 M
3DS: 62.4 M
PS Vita: 14 M
PS4: 15-16 M
XBO: 14-15 M
PS3: 91 M
X360: 88 M
Wii 103 M