8th gen sales by Jan 1 2015

[DM235]

Just to put things into perspective, here is the VGChartz info for the DS:

2004 - 2.9 mil (in 2 months)
2005 - 11.8 mil (13.9 mil in 15 m)
2006 - 20.8 mil (34.7 mil in 27 m)
2007 - 29.3 mil (64.0 mil in 39 m)
2008 - 29.5 mil (93.5 mil in 51 m)

Here is the info for the 3DS (including my estimates):

2011 - 13.3 mil (in 9 months)
2012 - 14.4 mil (27.7 mil in 21 m)
2013 - 4.6 mil YTD, estimated by me at 14 mil (estimating 41 mil in 33 m)
2014 - 14 mil estimated by me (estimating 55 mil in 45 m)

Nintendo's forecast for the 3DS for 2012 was 15 mil, but they only sold 14 mil. They are forecasting 18 mil for 2013, but so far sales for this year are 4.6 mil vs 4.8 mil for the same time last year, indicating a decline. This is far different from the DS, which really took off in its 3rd year. The DS also tracked higher each Christmas season for its first few years, yet the 3DS had worse sales in its second Christmas season compared to its first.

Based on all of that, I think my estimate is sound.

Is it possible that Nintendo will do a hardware refresh, price cut and release some spectacular new games that will make sales take off? Sure, that could happen. I am just not counting on it.