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Forums - Sales Discussion - 8th gen sales by Jan 1 2015

Turkish on 10 July 2013
zorg1000 said:

3DS-64 million

Vita-14 million

Wii U-18 million

PS4-12 million

One-8 million

3ds and wiiu are ridicilously high



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Zero999 on 10 July 2013
BloodyRain said:
Zero999 said:
NintendoPie said:
Zero999 said:

by the way "The Wii had around 19.8 Million around this point in time. I'd say 14 Million at most. (This is a comparison at the start of 2008, so the numbers that are used here don't reflect the second year of the Wii. Although my point still stands.)"

No, your point wasn't even close from getting up, let alone stand. you used numbers for when wii was 1 year old vs wii u 2 years old. and predicting a maximun of 14M for a console that will already be at least 9M 1 year before that time point is just nonsense.

My point still stands. I find it funny, though, that you sifted your way through this thread and found my number yet other people are predicting something with Millions lower than mine. Interesting.

Also, do you agree with the OP's Wii U prediction? If so, why?

funny that you think I should waste my time with every stupid predicition on this topic. yours was the first i read so i quoted you. and as I said, your point NEVER standed since you are saying wii u can't reach in 2 years what the wii reached in 1.

and I don't agree with the OP's wii u numbers, they're too low. total numbers for 2013 should be 6 or 7 million, totalizing 9 or 10M. 2014 will be A LOT better than 2013 for wii u, probably doubling 2013 so i predict 22M or over for wii u by january 2015.

What makes his post anymore stupid then yours? This thread is all about predictions that anyone can make. Your prediction is the one that is out of the norm overall based on other numbers in this thread.

out of norm doesn't mean out of logic. and what makes his post stupid was already pointed. just for starters, he says wii u can't do x number in 2 YEARS because that's more than wii did in 1 YEAR. that by itself is already devoid of logic.



MDMAlliance on 10 July 2013
Turkish said:
zorg1000 said:

3DS-64 million

Vita-14 million

Wii U-18 million

PS4-12 million

One-8 million

3ds and wiiu are ridicilously high

I don't think so.  This is by Jan 1, 2015.  Wii U at 18m isn't so high and 3DS at 64m is definitely not out of the bounds of reality.  70m would be ridiculously high for 3DS.



zorg1000 on 10 July 2013
Turkish said:
zorg1000 said:

3DS-64 million

Vita-14 million

Wii U-18 million

PS4-12 million

One-8 million

3ds and wiiu are ridicilously high

Not really, they may be a bit on the high side but not ridicilously. 3DS did 14 million last year with only Paper Mario as a holiday title, this year Iit has Pokemon+Zelda and Monster Hunter 4 in Japan so YoY shoild be higher. Id say 16-18 million which would put it at 43-45 million. Next could very well see a price cut and redesign plus possible games such as Pokemon Z, Smash Bros, Dragon Quest 11 and some smaller titles like Metroid, Kirby, Yoshi, Advance Wars. 15-20 is def possible in 2014 which would put it anywhere between 58-65 million.

As for Wii U, by the end of the month it should be around 3.3 million, it has 5 decent sized exclusives from Aug-Oct, Pikmin, Luigi U, W101, Wind Waker, Party U so id say a total of 1 million in those three minths. In Nov/Dec there are 3 big titles in DKC, Fit U, 3D World all very big sellers, that plus holiday deals/bundles like Basic-$199 and Deluxe w/extra game-$299 will give it a strong holiday season. 3 million isnt out of the question so 7-8 million by the end of the year. Q1 next year could be slow but likely still up YoY then in April Mario Kart 8+pricr cut will push alot of units. Follow that up with Smash Bros in the summer and Zelda+Wii Sports U in thr holiday and some smaller exclusives like Yarn Yoshi, Bayonetta, X, SMTxFE and a few other unnanounced games mixed in between the big titles. 8-10 million is surely possiblr in 2014 putting it at 15-18 million.

Just for reference could I see ur numbers and a break down explaining why u dont think my numbers are possible?



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

NintendoPie on 10 July 2013
Zero999 said:

funny that you think I should waste my time with every stupid predicition on this topic. yours was the first i read so i quoted you. and as I said, your point NEVER standed since you are saying wii u can't reach in 2 years what the wii reached in 1.

and I don't agree with the OP's wii u numbers, they're too low. total numbers for 2013 should be 6 or 7 million, totalizing 9 or 10M. 2014 will be A LOT better than 2013 for wii u, probably doubling 2013 so i predict 22M or over for wii u by january 2015.

Well, that settles it then. If you really are predicting numbers of around 22 Million for the Wii U (which, compared to everyone elses predictions is off) then I guess I'm okay with being "too low."



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MDMAlliance on 10 July 2013
NintendoPie said:
Zero999 said:

funny that you think I should waste my time with every stupid predicition on this topic. yours was the first i read so i quoted you. and as I said, your point NEVER standed since you are saying wii u can't reach in 2 years what the wii reached in 1.

and I don't agree with the OP's wii u numbers, they're too low. total numbers for 2013 should be 6 or 7 million, totalizing 9 or 10M. 2014 will be A LOT better than 2013 for wii u, probably doubling 2013 so i predict 22M or over for wii u by january 2015.

Well, that settles it then. If you really are predicting numbers of around 22 Million for the Wii U (which, compared to everyone elses predictions is off) then I guess I'm okay with being "too low."


Actually I said 22m for Wii U as well.  I didn't want to give a guess at first, because I have no idea and I am just going for my high estimate. A lot can happen in a year and a half.  
Although I would say anything under 20m would be low for Jan 1, 2016.



NintendoPie on 10 July 2013
MDMAlliance said:


Actually I said 22m for Wii U as well.  I didn't want to give a guess at first, because I have no idea and I am just going for my high estimate. A lot can happen in a year and a half.  
Although I would say anything under 20m would be low for Jan 1, 2016.

22 Million is too high going off of the information that we have right now.

Of course the Wii U could reach that once 2016 rolls around. I would suspect it reaching higher, of course.



DM235 on 10 July 2013
Zero999 said:
DM235 said:
Seeing as 360 did 8.0 mil, PS3 did 9.2 mil and the Wii did 19.5 mil in that time frame, my predictions are as follows:

X1 = 7.0 mil
PS4 = 10.2 mil
WiiU = 9.5 mil

My reasoning? With all of the negative press, X1 will lose 1.0 mil to PS4. I know that pre-orders in the US for software seem to indicate a 2:1 split (Call of Duty: Ghosts, which would generally be favored on Xbox, is currently tracking at 31.8k for PS4 and 17.5k for X1), but I think this will change as people forget about E3 and MS gears up its marketing machine.

I also think the WiiU will do half the amount the Wii did.

3DS = 55 mil
Vita = 10 mil

If Sony pushes the Vita as a second screen for the PS4, sales may improve, but right now I am assuming they will not.

I don't think the 3DS will be as high as people think, because more people will be playing on phones / iPods than before.

you realize the topic refers to total sales by the END of 2014, right? it's not about first year sales for each console. you're also using 1 year numbers for wii's comparison instead of 2. half the wii would still mean 20M+ for wii u, wich is much probable.

End of 2014 means 1 year + 2 months for X1 and PS4, give or take a month depending on when they launch.  I used 2005 + 2006 sales for Xbox and 2006 + 2007 for PS3 as a base.

You are correct that I mistakenly only used a little over 1 year for Wii as a comparison for Wii U.  The number should have been 21.5 mil to be half the Wii sales.  I thinks that's a little high, so I'll go with 19.5 mil :)



DM235 on 10 July 2013
MDMAlliance said:
DM235 said:
Seeing as 360 did 8.0 mil, PS3 did 9.2 mil and the Wii did 19.5 mil in that time frame, my predictions are as follows:

X1 = 7.0 mil
PS4 = 10.2 mil
WiiU = 9.5 mil

My reasoning? With all of the negative press, X1 will lose 1.0 mil to PS4. I know that pre-orders in the US for software seem to indicate a 2:1 split (Call of Duty: Ghosts, which would generally be favored on Xbox, is currently tracking at 31.8k for PS4 and 17.5k for X1), but I think this will change as people forget about E3 and MS gears up its marketing machine.

I also think the WiiU will do half the amount the Wii did.

3DS = 55 mil
Vita = 10 mil

If Sony pushes the Vita as a second screen for the PS4, sales may improve, but right now I am assuming they will not.

I don't think the 3DS will be as high as people think, because more people will be playing on phones / iPods than before.

I don't think in the next two years that the market for smart phones will grow so much it will make the 3DS only sell 22-23m in 17 months.  Especially considering the 3DS has only been out for a little over 2 years, a good portion of which were slow times for the 3DS.


The 3DS did 13 mil in 2011 and 14 mil in 2012.  I expect 2013 and 2014 to be repeats of 2012 (14 mil each).  So far, the year-over-year comparison for 2013 vs 2012 has supported this.  Unless Nintendo releases an updated 3DS model, I don't expect anything to change.  I think that any gains due to popularity or improvements in its software library will be lost due to people shifting to mobile platforms.



MDMAlliance on 10 July 2013
DM235 said:
MDMAlliance said:
DM235 said:
Seeing as 360 did 8.0 mil, PS3 did 9.2 mil and the Wii did 19.5 mil in that time frame, my predictions are as follows:

X1 = 7.0 mil
PS4 = 10.2 mil
WiiU = 9.5 mil

My reasoning? With all of the negative press, X1 will lose 1.0 mil to PS4. I know that pre-orders in the US for software seem to indicate a 2:1 split (Call of Duty: Ghosts, which would generally be favored on Xbox, is currently tracking at 31.8k for PS4 and 17.5k for X1), but I think this will change as people forget about E3 and MS gears up its marketing machine.

I also think the WiiU will do half the amount the Wii did.

3DS = 55 mil
Vita = 10 mil

If Sony pushes the Vita as a second screen for the PS4, sales may improve, but right now I am assuming they will not.

I don't think the 3DS will be as high as people think, because more people will be playing on phones / iPods than before.

I don't think in the next two years that the market for smart phones will grow so much it will make the 3DS only sell 22-23m in 17 months.  Especially considering the 3DS has only been out for a little over 2 years, a good portion of which were slow times for the 3DS.


The 3DS did 13 mil in 2011 and 14 mil in 2012.  I expect 2013 and 2014 to be repeats of 2012 (14 mil each).  So far, the year-over-year comparison for 2013 vs 2012 has supported this.  Unless Nintendo releases an updated 3DS model, I don't expect anything to change.  I think that any gains due to popularity or improvements in its software library will be lost due to people shifting to mobile platforms.


I don't think so.