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Forums - Sales Discussion - Nintendo Financial Report is IN

Kwaad said:

r2007 - The PS3 has the ability to log onto diffrent users with diffrent settings, and diffrent friend lists. The Wii all has the same friends, so if my child has all their 8 year old friends on the list... I might want to have a diffrent list with all my 30 year old friends... or whatever. Basically I dont want my list full of 8 year olds sending me messages saying 'IS JIMMY ON! I WANNA PLAY! LET JIMMY ON!'.

I am not 30, and I do not have a kid.

It could go for I dont want my wife's wierd girl-friends to be on the same list when I am on, I want a diffrent list. Like the same reason I have a diffrent Y! username than my wife. Cant do that on the Wii.


Oh, you're talking online. That paragraph mentioned has nothing to do with that. It talks about comunicating with family members: leaving messages, seeing high scores and other achievments, etc...



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Kwaad you missed the point. Wii is selling much better than Gamecube. Gamecube had a great 6 month launch - but Wii is having an amazing 6 month launch (Gamecube essentially sold ~20% of it's lifetime sales (60 months?) after it was out for 6 months in each region, instead of in a year...) Wii is pacing well above the Nintendo 64 launch too, which was launched with a game comparably revolutionary to Wii Sports (Super Mario 64!). In March 1997, Nintendo 64 was at 6.12 million units. That is more than Wii, but, Nintendo 64 launched in September in USA, and June in Japan - putting the Wii launch way ahead of it. From what I can tell, PS2 is the only system to have a better launch than Wii, and even that is debatable because the launch was staggered, while Wii launched simultaneously in all markets. If Sony had launched worldwide at one time, they would have had more manufacturing issues with launch (although they did anyway because of enormous demand).



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Kwaad said:
HappySqurriel said:

One thing I don't think many people have considered is that (typically) the Holiday months (October - December) account for 40% to 60% of yearly system sales. This means that if supply isn't a problem you would expect Nintendo to sell 5.6 to 8.4 Million units between October 1st 2007 and December 31st 2007. So to sell 14 Million units they would need to average between 622,222 and 955,555 units on non-holiday months.

If they can sell (roughly) 1 Million units per month (as they have been) and can find adequate supply for the holiday period they should pass the 14 Million mark; using the 40%-60% holiday estimate, 1 Million units per non-holiday month would work out to between 15 Million and 22.5 Million units in the full year.


 Are you saying nintendo is gonna pass their 20million produced 3 months early, and top it by 2million. Thus creating roughly 6million more consoles to that date than planned. Or roughly 30% more produced than nintendo expects.

And that is with 100% sellout. 

 

No, I was saying that if the Wii continues to sell as well as it has been and Nintendo increases supply to meet demand over christmas they could easily pass the 14 Million unit mark that they have set for themselves. Now, both may or may not happen but it is not that unusual for a company to produce new projections for their products every quarter in order to give investors more accurate data.

Think of it this way, if the Wii is still sold out at the end  of May (or if they were not producing an adequate supply for the holiday period)Nintendo could potentially decide to increase Wii production by 100,000 to 250,000 units per month; with this decision they would update projections in that Quarterly report to reflect the change in sales. If they still were not meeting demand in August (or were not producing an adequate supply for the holiday period) they could (once again) increase production but they would have to update their projections in that quarterly report.

I haven't got a clue whether any of these situations will happen, but it would not be unprecidented for a company to increase sales projections mid year.

 



It's taken Nintendo 5 months to even show signs of boosting supply. I'm not real confident in their ability to react quickly to market conditions considering.



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Kwaad said:

r2007 - The PS3 has the ability to log onto diffrent users with diffrent settings, and diffrent friend lists. The Wii all has the same friends, so if my child has all their 8 year old friends on the list... I might want to have a diffrent list with all my 30 year old friends... or whatever. Basically I dont want my list full of 8 year olds sending me messages saying 'IS JIMMY ON! I WANNA PLAY! LET JIMMY ON!'.

I am not 30, and I do not have a kid.

It could go for I dont want my wife's wierd girl-friends to be on the same list when I am on, I want a diffrent list. Like the same reason I have a diffrent Y! username than my wife. Cant do that on the Wii.

 

The Source - HOLY SMOKES dude. Your digging deep! I love what you do, and how you do it. You state crude hard numbers. I'll try to protect you from the Wiiatics! *sits infront of Source to protect him from the feces throwing*


This is not the target of Wii as the operation is too complicated for most of the people in the world by session log on. What Wii is promoting family communication in a simple way. I don't think people will find this is user friendly if a father leave a message to his son at the message board and he need to login time by time (his son do the same thing as well). But I doubt whether you can understand what I'm talking about. Base on your playstation mind, all the Wii feature is bad and cannot compare with Playstation 3.



While it's nice to see Nintendo making money and selling a lot of systems, I think they're missing the boat by making only 14M Wiis over the next 12 months.  Heck, even I'm a little tired of this 'supply problem'.  While I'm not dying to get a system, at this rate I won't be able to unless I decide to camp out.  And I'm pretty much against fighting the 'fleaBayers' out there or paying more than the MSRP.  The projections in this report show that Nintendo isn't making much of an effort to increase supply like they promised a few months ago.  Hopefully they're conservative and based upon having not signed with a second manufacturer yet.

(As a side note, I think another 22M DSes should keep the Pokemaniacs and Dragon Questers happy. )



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Shane said:
It's taken Nintendo 5 months to even show signs of boosting supply. I'm not real confident in their ability to react quickly to market conditions considering.

But how many of those months was it clear that nintendo needed to incerase production?

Between launch demand and the holiday period it should have been expected that the Wii was going to be sold out given the supply Nintendo had; just satisfying launch demand could push the Wii to be sold out late into January or early into february. I suspect that you couldn't be sure that the Wii was being undersupplied until mid February or early March as line-ups and shortages continued.

Right now (with increased production) Nintendo will be cautious about increasing production until they know that they are not dealing with residual demand but in 2 months (if it is still hard to come by) they will be looking for ways to increase production as needed; certainly, it may take them 6 weeks to increase production after they determine that it is necessary but that still is within this fiscal year and prior to the upcomming holiday period.



Shane said:
It's taken Nintendo 5 months to even show signs of boosting supply. I'm not real confident in their ability to react quickly to market conditions considering.

 You have to understand that when it comes to financials Ninty is very conservative, they don't like to risk profits, so they are slow to react to high demand, because they don't want to risk losing money



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

 Yet the Wii attach rates are roughly (JP/NA/Others) 3/6/6, GC- 7/11/9, DS- 4/5/4, GBA- 4/5/4. 

Well sure I owned 20 gamecube games, but that was after 5 years. I only had a couple in the first year... just waited for better games to come out.