Nintendo aims to accelerate the current sales momentum of “Nintendo DS” from “must-have for every family” to “must-have for everyone”.

Out of curiousity, what was Nintendo's position on DS last year? They ended up delivering 23.56 million units, but what was their initial projection? Less than 23.56 million, I think.

Also, I'm anxious to see a WW software shipments update for DS titles... Nintendogs at 13 million!

@Erik Aston

Considering Nintendo raised it's estimates four times last year, it's probably a good guess that they low ball their figures.

basically a 16-17million numer of Wii's sold holiday 2007 if it sells out.

If it dont sell out, we are looking at 14-15million. Right where I say.

Looking at these numbers, I'm not sure if Wii can pass 360 in 2007. Refrence my other thread to see why Wii sales are dropping. 

if the 16 mln DS vs 23 mln sold is an indication, there's a good chance they'll end up making 20 mln wii's.

i mean, 14mln ~= 1.17mln/month is barely an increase from their current ~ 1mln a month. if production is ramped up linearly, it'll mean they'll be making only 1.34mln/month a year from now! 34% increase in a year? certainly they can do better than that.

20mln/12 is 1.67mln a month. now that's essentially doubling capacity to 2 mln a year from now... which might be about the limit.

just for kicks, let's say:

before march: 1 mln

april-may: 1.2 mln (about in line with 14 mln / 12--their projectiong let's say is based on current production)

june-august: 1.4 mln

sept-dec: 1.6mln

jan-mar: 1.7mln (pretty much terminal production levels?)

1.2*2+1.4*3+1.6*4+1.7*3 = 18.1 mln.

more important is whether john lucas is on target production till august 1st is: 1.2*2+1.4*2=5.2 mln. 5.2 + 5.84 = 11.04 mln.

so... 360 would need to sell less than 1.5mln in about 3.5 months. i guess that's about right?

the 20 mln wii's would seem hard to reach: above gives 13 mln wii till end of year + 5.84mln = 18.84mln.

of course, you only need to add 150k capacity to each month and you have 18.84mln + 0.15*9 = 20.19mln till end of year.

that'll also add 1.8mln units sold through this fiscal year, to 19.9mln units.

none of this is outrageous!

EDIT: ignoring shipping delays.  also equating "shipped" and "sold".

Lingyis,

I still think they are being conservative, but maybe Nintendo seems to think the in demand situation is much better for their sales than an in stock one... it makes the product be 'perceived' as the must have thing.

For comparison's sake, in Q4, there were 167k unsold units in Japan and 170k in the US, with presumably at least 100k in Europe. At that time, they were shipping higher volumes, but regardless, there will still be a lot of units either in stores or in transit. I'd say it's fair to knock off 200k from the 5.84 million figure. Shipment projections are in line with what I expected. 1.2 million a month would lead us to that 14 million figure. I'd consider this a realistic estimate as to how much they believe they are capable of delivering. There's not going to be 20 million by the end of the current year, and there won't be 10 million for the holidays. That said, 20 million should put them in the same ballpark as 360 and still quite a ways ahead of Sony.

official number of wiis shipped by end of 2006: 3.19mln

end of march 2007: 5.84mln

so that's (5.84-3.19)/3 = 883.3k per month.

1.2mln /month  i suppose isn't too bad.

PS2 sold what, 20mln a year?  that's 1.67 mln a month. 

14 mln is almost surely a conservative figure; nintendo is known to "under promise, over deliver" to investors.  somewhere between 14 mln and 20 mln makes 17 mln a good guess.