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if the 16 mln DS vs 23 mln sold is an indication, there's a good chance they'll end up making 20 mln wii's.

i mean, 14mln ~= 1.17mln/month is barely an increase from their current ~ 1mln a month. if production is ramped up linearly, it'll mean they'll be making only 1.34mln/month a year from now! 34% increase in a year? certainly they can do better than that.

20mln/12 is 1.67mln a month. now that's essentially doubling capacity to 2 mln a year from now... which might be about the limit.

just for kicks, let's say:

before march: 1 mln

april-may: 1.2 mln (about in line with 14 mln / 12--their projectiong let's say is based on current production)

june-august: 1.4 mln

sept-dec: 1.6mln

jan-mar: 1.7mln (pretty much terminal production levels?)

1.2*2+1.4*3+1.6*4+1.7*3 = 18.1 mln.

 

more important is whether john lucas is on target production till august 1st is: 1.2*2+1.4*2=5.2 mln. 5.2 + 5.84 = 11.04 mln.

so... 360 would need to sell less than 1.5mln in about 3.5 months. i guess that's about right?

the 20 mln wii's would seem hard to reach: above gives 13 mln wii till end of year + 5.84mln = 18.84mln.

of course, you only need to add 150k capacity to each month and you have 18.84mln + 0.15*9 = 20.19mln till end of year.

that'll also add 1.8mln units sold through this fiscal year, to 19.9mln units.

none of this is outrageous!

 

EDIT: ignoring shipping delays.  also equating "shipped" and "sold".

 



the Wii is an epidemic.