It's good to be conservative. You only have to assume pleasant surprises.
The conservativeness of Nintendo drives me to think great games are to be expected on DS and Wii. Thats all I care for, at the end.
Anyone know what Nintendo thought Gamecube would sell in March 2002 when looking ahead to the next year? I think they projected 6 or 8 million but then had to adjust downwards..I'm going to look it up.
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
One thing I don't think many people have considered is that (typically) the Holiday months (October - December) account for 40% to 60% of yearly system sales. This means that if supply isn't a problem you would expect Nintendo to sell 5.6 to 8.4 Million units between October 1st 2007 and December 31st 2007. So to sell 14 Million units they would need to average between 622,222 and 955,555 units on non-holiday months.
If they can sell (roughly) 1 Million units per month (as they have been) and can find adequate supply for the holiday period they should pass the 14 Million mark; using the 40%-60% holiday estimate, 1 Million units per non-holiday month would work out to between 15 Million and 22.5 Million units in the full year.
TheSource,
Hardcore gaming is a bubble economy blown up by Microsoft's $7 $6 billion losses.
| HappySqurriel said: One thing I don't think many people have considered is that (typically) the Holiday months (October - December) account for 40% to 60% of yearly system sales. This means that if supply isn't a problem you would expect Nintendo to sell 5.6 to 8.4 Million units between October 1st 2007 and December 31st 2007. So to sell 14 Million units they would need to average between 622,222 and 955,555 units on non-holiday months. If they can sell (roughly) 1 Million units per month (as they have been) and can find adequate supply for the holiday period they should pass the 14 Million mark; using the 40%-60% holiday estimate, 1 Million units per non-holiday month would work out to between 15 Million and 22.5 Million units in the full year. |
Are you saying nintendo is gonna pass their 20million produced 3 months early, and top it by 2million. Thus creating roughly 6million more consoles to that date than planned. Or roughly 30% more produced than nintendo expects.
And that is with 100% sellout.
PSN ID: Kwaad
I fly this flag in victory!
One of the more interesting paragraphs from the report:
Nintendo will continue pursue expansion of the gaming population, with a diverse software lineup, and through expansion of the definition of video games. Nintendo will offer brand new entertainment that takes root in our daily lives, as has already been achieved with “Touch! Generations” software series. As for “Nintendo DS”, by positioning it as “a machine that enriches the owner’s daily lives”, Nintendo aims to accelerate the current sales momentum of “Nintendo DS” from “must-have for every family” to “must-have for everyone”. Nintendo also has positioned “Wii” as “a machine that puts smiles on surrounding people’s faces”. Specifically, Nintendo will not just enrich the applicable package software lineup for “Wii” but will further intensify Wii’s “Channel” concept which already includes the abilities for the “Wii” owners to create their caricatures, view weather forecasts, news, and surf the web. “ Wii ” will encourage communication among family members as each of them can feel something relevant to themselves and be motivated to turn on the power everyday in order to enjoy “the new life with ‘Wii’”.
For comparison's sake:
April 10, 2002 - Bloomberg news reports that Nintendo has shipped four million GameCubes between the US and Japan, and expects even stronger sales of the hardware in 2002. According to the report, Nintendo hopes to sell 12 million GameCubes globally by the end of the year.
Nintendo, which beat its own profit forecasts this quarter by 38%, is betting on a successful launch of the videogame console in Europe on May 3, and system-selling software such as Legend of Zelda, Mario Sunshine, Metroid Prime, and Star Fox Adventures to push three times the units.
GameCube will remain a distant second to Sony's PlayStation 2 in terms of overall sales regardless of whether or not the company can ultimately sell through 12 million pieces of hardware.
http://cube.ign.com/articles/357/357088p1.html
But...
October 1, 2002 - According to the Nikkei Weekly, Nintendo has revised its fiscal 2003 outlook, ending in March 2003 due to stronger yen. Previously estimated to be a group net profit of 90 billion yen, the company has revised the projection to Y80 billion (approx. 650 million US dollars). Stronger yen (versus dollar value in the US, for instance) makes exporting more expensive (i.e. selling GameCube is more expensive in the US as opposed to Japan). For comparison, in the previous fiscal year, Nintendo posted a group net profit of 106.44 billion yen.
A spokesman for the company also said that Nintendo expects to ship 10 million GameCubes over the entirety of fiscal 2003, down from the initial projections of 12 million.
Lastly, Nintendo's net balance was somewhat improved by the Y19 billion (approx. $155 million) special profit from the sale of its 49% in the now Microsoft-owned Rare.
http://cube.ign.com/articles/372/372753p1.html
Finally,
April 7, 2003 - Bloomberg reports that Nintendo's full-year profits have fallen by 38 percent due to lagging sales of its next-generation GameCube console. The company's net income was still 66 bill yen, or about $547 million.
Nintendo's projection that 10 million GameCubes would be sold by March 31, 2003 went unmet. The company had only sold 5.6 million GCNs by that period. Microsoft has sold more than eight million Xbox systems around the world since the console's release, according to Bloomberg.
GameCube software sales totaled 44.5 million copies, well shy of Nintendo's 55 million target.
"GameCube sales were bad worldwide," Chief Financial Officer Yoshihiro Mori told reporters in Osaka.
Nintendo blamed the sluggish performance of GameCube and its software to rising popularity of such PlayStation 2 titles as Grand Theft Auto.
More as it develops.
http://cube.ign.com/articles/392/392735p1.html
In March 2002, Nintendo had shipped 3.8 million GameCubes worldwide, and projected to be upto ~ 16 million LTD shipped by March 2003 (estimates of 10-12 million for the fiscal year). Then they dropped that estimate to LTD ~ 14 million shipped by March 2003 (estimates of 10 million for the fiscal year). When the data for that fiscal year came in, Nintendo had shipped ~ 9.56 million (5.76 million for the fiscal year). Obviously the change in 4 million+ final expectations to actual sell through suggests Wii could be higher or lower.
For comparison, Nintendo shipped 5.84 million Wii's worldwide by March 2007, despite 2.5 months less time in Japan (even factoring in GC's first months in Europe, figures are in the low 5 millions - despite more time in Japan). Demand has been stronger in Japan, Europe, and America in 2007 then GC demand in 2002. Wii sold something like 7x GC numbers in it's 'post launch' January. 6x time the numbers in 'post launch' February. Still over double the numbers in 'post launch' March, even with Wii supply constrained and GC getting more decent software in March 02'. Nintendo now expects 14 million Wii's sold in the coming fiscal year. Even if they miss their target by 4 million units (like GC, and a worst case scenario given much stronger Wii-momentum), that would esssentially put Wii sales/demand at double GC sales/demand post 6 month launch period. If that were to continue, 40 million would be the absolute floor for Wii worldwide sales.
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
| FishyJoe said: One of the more interesting paragraphs from the report: Nintendo will continue pursue expansion of the gaming population, with a diverse software lineup, and through expansion of the definition of video games. Nintendo will offer brand new entertainment that takes root in our daily lives, as has already been achieved with “Touch! Generations” software series. As for “Nintendo DS”, by positioning it as “a machine that enriches the owner’s daily lives”, Nintendo aims to accelerate the current sales momentum of “Nintendo DS” from “must-have for every family” to “must-have for everyone”. Nintendo also has positioned “Wii” as “a machine that puts smiles on surrounding people’s faces”. Specifically, Nintendo will not just enrich the applicable package software lineup for “Wii” but will further intensify Wii’s “Channel” concept which already includes the abilities for the “Wii” owners to create their caricatures, view weather forecasts, news, and surf the web. “ Wii ” will encourage communication among family members as each of them can feel something relevant to themselves and be motivated to turn on the power everyday in order to enjoy “the new life with ‘Wii’”. |
They need to make the Wii multi-user then, because as it stands now, there is only 1 user per Wii... They want 4 Wii's in each house!
PSN ID: Kwaad
I fly this flag in victory!
Kwaad said:
They need to make the Wii multi-user then, because as it stands now, there is only 1 user per Wii... They want 4 Wii's in each house! |
what do you mean by that?
r2007 - The PS3 has the ability to log onto diffrent users with diffrent settings, and diffrent friend lists. The Wii all has the same friends, so if my child has all their 8 year old friends on the list... I might want to have a diffrent list with all my 30 year old friends... or whatever. Basically I dont want my list full of 8 year olds sending me messages saying 'IS JIMMY ON! I WANNA PLAY! LET JIMMY ON!'.
I am not 30, and I do not have a kid.
It could go for I dont want my wife's wierd girl-friends to be on the same list when I am on, I want a diffrent list. Like the same reason I have a diffrent Y! username than my wife. Cant do that on the Wii.
The Source - HOLY SMOKES dude. Your digging deep! I love what you do, and how you do it. You state crude hard numbers. I'll try to protect you from the Wiiatics! *sits infront of Source to protect him from the feces throwing*
PSN ID: Kwaad
I fly this flag in victory!
About Us |
Terms of Use |
Privacy Policy |
Advertise |
Staff |
Contact
Display As Desktop
Display As Mobile
© 2006-2024 VGChartz Ltd. All rights reserved.
