Lingyis said:
if the 16 mln DS vs 23 mln sold is an indication, there's a good chance they'll end up making 20 mln wii's. i mean, 14mln ~= 1.17mln/month is barely an increase from their current ~ 1mln a month. if production is ramped up linearly, it'll mean they'll be making only 1.34mln/month a year from now! 34% increase in a year? certainly they can do better than that. 20mln/12 is 1.67mln a month. now that's essentially doubling capacity to 2 mln a year from now... which might be about the limit. just for kicks, let's say: before march: 1 mln april-may: 1.2 mln (about in line with 14 mln / 12--their projectiong let's say is based on current production) june-august: 1.4 mln sept-dec: 1.6mln jan-mar: 1.7mln (pretty much terminal production levels?) 1.2*2+1.4*3+1.6*4+1.7*3 = 18.1 mln. more important is whether john lucas is on target  production till august 1st is: 1.2*2+1.4*2=5.2 mln. 5.2 + 5.84 = 11.04 mln. so... 360 would need to sell less than 1.5mln in about 3.5 months. i guess that's about right? the 20 mln wii's would seem hard to reach: above gives 13 mln wii till end of year + 5.84mln = 18.84mln. of course, you only need to add 150k capacity to each month and you have 18.84mln + 0.15*9 = 20.19mln till end of year. that'll also add 1.8mln units sold through this fiscal year, to 19.9mln units. none of this is outrageous! EDIT: ignoring shipping delays. also equating "shipped" and "sold". |
Hahahahahaha! Time is showing you. Time is showing you. It always does.
No, I can't predict well on a month to month basis. But on a yearly basis I can see the picture much clearer. Give me a broad span of time and I can make accurate readings. I know holiday season is exponential selling power. I think about the selling boosts due to given time of year in different regions around the world and by games released and their ability to sell hardware along with the software.
Since I don't work for Nintendo I can go out on that limb and not have to be cautious with my forecasts. It won't hurt me if I'm wrong like it would them. I can see the best case scenario and stick by it. The Nintendo fan has more room to believe in the product more than the Nintendo company itself.
The nature of the system is why I see continuous sales all throughout the year. It will never lose that approx. 1 million a month status. A little under, a little over but it will move like that all the rest of the year and then comes fall when us in the "Western world" prepare to celebrate the commercial side of the holidays with gift giving. Many missed out last year due to the intense craze and will be ready for this year. Kids want one. Teens want one. Young adults want one. Prime-age adults want one. Middle-age adults want one. Old folks even want one. Somebody might want to buy an extra Wii for another part of the house. One for family play and one for solitary play for those who can't share. I don't know the Japanese selling boost times but on THEIR gift-giving holidays will be another deluge of selling power.
Starting September the numbers will jump as people prepare to gift-give and surprise someone this Christmas/Hanukkah/Kwanzaa/etc. to result in reactions such as these:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pFlcqWQVVuU
That's why I said AT LEAST 20 million. There's no doubt they'll hit 20 million at the WORST case scenario. If demand is there Nintendo wants to capitalize on it. This company is about that dollar never forget. They want to satisfy demand believe me though I'm sure they're grateful that fervor remains despite such an ongoing lack. It only emboldens them to want to meet demand knowing the thirst is out there. It may well go a good deal past 20 million. My best case scenario is actually 24 million. There goes that crazy John Lucas again! To be able to make the greatest selling system of all time mark they're gonna have to move a 20 million-plus amount every year for 5 years though I actually think our old 5 year generation cuts may be altered this go 'round.
Underestimating Nintendo is what they count on. It's been their whole strategy on both of these systems DS & Wii. I overestimate them because I understand this strategy. They don't have to prove anything to me I know they will be successful & I'm just waiting on the verification.
Just sit back and watch the numbers roll by as you slowly discover my predictions were true. I'll be here with the big smile on my face in the end. 
John Lucas
