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HappySqurriel on 26 April 2007
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Kwaad said:
HappySqurriel said:

One thing I don't think many people have considered is that (typically) the Holiday months (October - December) account for 40% to 60% of yearly system sales. This means that if supply isn't a problem you would expect Nintendo to sell 5.6 to 8.4 Million units between October 1st 2007 and December 31st 2007. So to sell 14 Million units they would need to average between 622,222 and 955,555 units on non-holiday months.

If they can sell (roughly) 1 Million units per month (as they have been) and can find adequate supply for the holiday period they should pass the 14 Million mark; using the 40%-60% holiday estimate, 1 Million units per non-holiday month would work out to between 15 Million and 22.5 Million units in the full year.


 Are you saying nintendo is gonna pass their 20million produced 3 months early, and top it by 2million. Thus creating roughly 6million more consoles to that date than planned. Or roughly 30% more produced than nintendo expects.

And that is with 100% sellout. 

 

No, I was saying that if the Wii continues to sell as well as it has been and Nintendo increases supply to meet demand over christmas they could easily pass the 14 Million unit mark that they have set for themselves. Now, both may or may not happen but it is not that unusual for a company to produce new projections for their products every quarter in order to give investors more accurate data.

Think of it this way, if the Wii is still sold out at the end  of May (or if they were not producing an adequate supply for the holiday period)Nintendo could potentially decide to increase Wii production by 100,000 to 250,000 units per month; with this decision they would update projections in that Quarterly report to reflect the change in sales. If they still were not meeting demand in August (or were not producing an adequate supply for the holiday period) they could (once again) increase production but they would have to update their projections in that quarterly report.

I haven't got a clue whether any of these situations will happen, but it would not be unprecidented for a company to increase sales projections mid year.