JoeTheBro said:
5+ million copies by the release of the PS4. My avatar and sig make me want to say 8 million but I'm being realistic.
1. Vita and PS3. Yeah every person that buys the PS3 version gets the Vita version but there will still be a lot of Vita sales (maybe only 100,000 but for Vita that's good). These sales count towards the total game sales. In addition I'm expecting many of these buyers to cave in and down the road buy the PS3 version as well. This adds 110,000 or so to total sales.
Current total=.11 million
2. Vita game itself will act as a walking advertisement. Unlike a game being played in the basement, PSASBR will be seen in public being played by people. This will result in at best a conversation saying how amazing it is but at minimum it tells people the game exists. From this I'd expect 50,000 sales.
Current total=.16 million
3. Everybody loves the characters but some are die hard fans. I bought my Vita and paid extra to get it before launch just because it had Uncharted. Even if I didn't like PSASBR I'd buy it just because it has Nathan Drake. I'm sure that one gamer who loves God of War to death will buy this game just because of the over powered Kratos. From these die hard fans I expect 40 thousand sales considering 19 franchises are represented with characters.
Current total=.2 million
4. It's a clone of Super Smash Bros. Those of us who have played it know better but many others don't. One good thing about this is many die hard Smash fans will buy this game just to analyze how much of a clone it is. That adds 5,000 sales. Others will buy it because they liked Smash and want another game like it. Those people add 95 thousand. Most importantly though people love controversy. On this forum and many others there are whole threads filled with arguing one or the other. This gives lots of attention to the game adding around 500,000 sales from people that only learned about it from internet wars.
Current total=.8 million
5. The ads actually are being seen. The "All-Star" is well on its way to over 6 million views and a second live action trailer is being released in a couple weeks. Sony's PlayStation account is nothing but PSASBR and ads are being played before YouTube videos. Factor in that LBP Karting is the only other game for them and we can expect an above average ad campaign. This adds 700 thousand sales.
Current total 1.5 million
6. The beta is out. Almost every reaction is "man this game is amazing!" Of course a few people don't like it but most of them are complaining about beta issues which don't exist in the final build. Since playing the beta myself I have gone from "I'm getting this game because I like Sony games" to "I'm getting this game because it is funstastic and I'm obsessed." (if you actually read this, use "funtastic" somewhere in your reply to this thread. I wonder who just responds without reading posts) This equates to a lot more day one buyers and much better hype going into release. In addition it starts the train of thought that this game will get great reviews. This beta adds 300 thousand sales.
Current total=1.8 million
7. DLC will help with sales a lot! Down the road characters, stages, and everything else will be added. All of a sudden more and more people will want this game. In addition it adds to the game's legs and media coverage. When Crash finally gets put in everyone will be reminded of this game. DLC adds a whopping 1.3 million sales.
Current total=3.1 million
8. This is a balanced fighter. SuperBot coded in a super advanced system for nerfing players. In real time they receive stats of every online match and can judge how well players are doing. This system allows them to change the numbers however they want without even releasing a patch. Unlike Super Smash Bros. and other fighters this game will not have tiers. As a result hardcore fighters will be interested. Factor in the complex combo system and tournaments and that adds 1.7 million sales.
Current total=4.8 million
9. It is a fun fun fun party game. Now that every other sale is already accounted for we only have those that buy it because they enjoyed playing it from a demo or at a friends house. This game really is super duper reindeer pooper fun so the sales will reflect that. Word of mouth and playing with friends add 1.6 million.
Final total=6.4 million
Of course this is lifetime sales. Scale that back to before the PS4 releases and we have 5+ million sales. Sure my numbers are complete bull but my reasons aren't. This game will sell more than most of you are expecting, I can at least guarantee that. |
1. I don't see much in the way of Vita sales without a bundle. Most Vita owners will have a PS3, and will get a free copy of the Vita game. Even Vita games which aren't being given away aren't selling well.
2. Eh... I think you're placing too much importance on that. I haven't seen many Vita's in the wild, and when I do I don't stop to talk to people about it. Maybe it's because I'm a bit older. Maybe for the younger gamers that will happen.
3. 19 franchises are represented but not all of those franchises are all that big. I can see Uncharted and God of War fans MAYBE picking this up to see their favorite character but are Daniel whathisface, Radec, and Fat Princess putting asses in the seats?
4. I don't think a lot of diehard Smash fans are going to pick this up, especially considering how crowded the holiday season is, and how those fans will likely be dropping 300+ dollars on a Wii U. As for people wanting something like Smash, I don't know about that. I think people like Smash so much because of Nintendo's strong roster. I don't think those people will be interested in a Nintendo-less Smash, especially if this game isn't as good.
And if this controversy is so powerful why haven't preorders reflecting that? On a gaming website like this, it's a big deal, but we're a tiny faction of the gaming market. In mainstream land, people don't care.
5. So? It's not like the game was a well kept secret and people just found out that it existed via these commercials. Sony's done a good job marketing this. They had it on display at E3, had it at just about every gaming/pop culture expo available and so on. Preorders haven't been good. I don't see this commercial suddenly changing that so much. The game's been out for a while, it's already been well pushed by Sony, and the hype isn't there.
6. That's just not true. A lot of people are enjoying the beta, and a lot of people are not. It's hardly earned universal praise from average joe gamers, or from critics.
7. Since when has DLC been that exciting? The 20 characters they put in are only going to generate 1.8 million and then DLC characters are going to get 1.3 million more? That's just unrealistic. And Crash is not that big of a deal. There is a reason they stopped making Crash games. They didn't sell well.
8. You are WAAAAY overestimating the tournament scene. The tournament scene is a fringe community, and even in the tournament scene Smash is looked down on. PASBR will be no different. Many feel the beta is unbalanced, and do you know how pissed off tournament players would be if the game was actively nerfing a player for being good? As a competitive fighting gamer that just made me want this a whole lot less, and I know the Smash Community would feel that way. 1.7 million tournament players would be a ridiculous estimate even IF this was an amazing super balanced fighter. The community is not that large.
To put things in perspective, MvC 3 sold about 2 million and that franchise had a huge competitive following. Naturally, most of the people who bought MvC3 are NOT tournament level players. With that in mind do you really think 1.7 million tournament players is a realistic figure?
9. Pure opinion. I think it's enjoyable but I hardly think it's something that everybody will run out and buy if they play it once.
10. Let's put 6.4 million in perspective. FIVE PS3 games have sold that number or more. Out of those games, 3 of them had Call of Duty in the title, one of them had Grand Theft Auto, and one of them was Gran Turismo 5. Gran Turismo 5 is the ONLY Sony developed game on the PS3 to hit that number. Even games that were bundled haven't hit that. PASBR is going to outsell LBP, Uncharted 3, and God of War?
