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JustThatGamer said:
Never use YouTube view counts as a way to estimate how well a game will perform. For example; http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pN0CiFs3U9I and it came out unnoticed and has already forgotten.

If this game is generally accepted as good by the fans and word of mouth is good and the game is as MASSIVELY bundled as Uncharted 3 has been since its launch then I expect 3-4 million sales. If the game is merely recieved as 'OK' and the word of mouth isn't good and the game is bundled massively for just the xmas holidays season then 1-2 million.

I'm just gong to go ahead and guess that it'll do roughly 2.5 million lifetime, a great start for what will become one of Sony's most popular franchises.

This is why I Am Alive failed:

The game has been in development since 2003. The game was first rumored to be in development in July 2008, when it was known that Assassin's Creed producer Jade Raymond was working on a new game, which was announced at E3 2008, along with a trailer. It was later revealed that Raymond was not working on the game.[9] Development experienced various delays. The original developers, Darkworks, announced that it would not be working on it any longer due to a "mutual decision" and that the studio had other obligations, and that the game would be finished at Ubisoft Shanghai's studio.[10] On August 2009, various screenshots of an old build of the game were leaked onto the Internet.[11] An announcement from Ubisoft indicated a release window between Q2 April 2010– Q2 March 2011. These dates passed with no new information, until June 2011 when a notification was published at the Australian classification website which indicated a possible release in the late summer of 2011.[12]

Ubisoft CEO Yves Guillemot said at the start of 2010 that the studio was "totally re-engineering the product."[13] In May 2011, Ubisoft cancelled a number of games, but it was revealed that I Am Alive and another Ubisoft title Beyond Good & Evil 2 were not among them, with Ubisoft stating that the cancelled games were unannounced games.[14] On September 29, 2011, a new announcement trailer was released for the game with a release date of "this winter" at the end.[15] On January 23, 2012, the developers announced on Facebook that the game would be available for Xbox 360 on March 7, 2012.[16] On August 23, 2012, Ubisoft announced the PC version, which was previously cancelled.[2]

Delayed like a mofo and then people stopped caring. Also it got shit reviews.

Wikipedia

OT: If All Stars gets under 85 meta - max 2m sales

Over 85 meta - 3.5m+