Manuelf, a game that is comming out earlier is also more hyped at the time. When is GTA4 comming out? April 22nd?

That's the most ridiculous thing I have ever read. You are calling Grand Theft Auto a casual game? Wow.

This doesn't deserve any more attention, but I have no choice:

 " went to casuals who just want to blow stuff up."

 1. Most casuals don't want to blow stuff up

 2. If they did, games like Uncharted, Gears of War, Bioshock, etc. would all appeal to these "casuals"

 3. If Grand Theft Auto is classified as casual, almost every game ever made has to be

I don't know why everyone assumes the wii owners are so casual. Yes there are girl and elderly gamers buying wiis, but they probably combined make up like 10% of the wii market. I know at least 5 wii owners and they are all hardcore gamers. I don't know any casueal wii owning gamers, do you?

Dude GTA is the most casual game ever. What you think there are like 13+ Million hardcore gamers... and they all bought GTA?

Causal gamers love that you can just drive around for like 15 minutes, screw shit up, run over a few people and get caught by the cops. I know, because that's what my casual friends did.

They bought a PS2, GTA, Madden, Tony Hawk... and that was it. Then they got stoned and played GTA taking turns while they died.

There is a large market of casual players that actually do enjoy what many people mistakenly call "hardcore" games. Any game that sells over two million is likely tapping in to a fairly large casual base.

The problem is your definition of casual is "Someone who doesn't like the games I like."

Instead of "Someone who occasionally plays videogames, but it isn't a big hobby to them.  Probably plays less then 5 hours a week." 

well after the huge first day sales in japan im thinking brawl might win

 Well that's just selection bias.  How many elderly or casual gamers do you hang out with... and how often do VG sales come up?

Of course the same could be said for 360's and PS3's.  I know i'd never of known my Aunt had a 360 or that my other aunt had like 3 DS's unless they had mentioned it in casual conversation.

What people don't understand is causual =/= not liking blowing shit up.

People can be hardcore gamers and actually like nothing but minigames.  I mean if someone has a wii and plays mini game collections 5 hours a day, are they really not a hardcore gamer?

If someone plays GTA for less then 3 hours a week, avoiding the cops are they really a hardcore gamer? 

 Eh I'd be surprised.  There is a lot of benfit to releaseing on two different consoles even if the userbase is the same size, let alone larger.

 Japan is a big hope for them though... GTA4 will probably sell less in Japan then Brawl did first week.   If it really does move a lot of product there it does have a chance.  It'd have to be some insane bigger then big name RPG numbers in my opinion though.

Ive never completed 1 mission in any GTA game. GTA to me is not fun.

I'll go with SSBB

Of course some casuals like that shit, but Grand Theft Auto appeals to all hardcore gamers as well. You rarly hear of hardcore gamers not liking Grand Theft Auto. There are many ways to play the game.

To say this game won't sell well without casuals is crazy, this game caters more to hardcores than casuals and the majority of 360/PS3 owners will eat it up.

There is a difference between sell well and sell 10 Million +.

Just curious though... how many "Hardcore" people who play games do you think exist in the world?

Like give me an exact number and we'll see how far our numbers are off. I'll let you know that I think there are below 10 million hardcore. I'd put the number more towards 5 million, and that's including people like hardcore JRPG fans who won't look at another game unless it has turn based menu based battles.