rocketpig said: Fastrabbit09 said: rocketpig said: SSBB will do well, but it's still only on one console. by the time gta4 comes out wii will be around 50% market share, depending on gta4's final release date and many people that own a 360 also own a ps3 and viceversa, while 99% of wii owners only own one wii so ssbb will have a larger userbase to sell to...if u wanna argue that gta4 will have a higher attach rate, then go for it, but the quoted argument doesn't hold water Part of my reasoning for that is that the Wii is still supply-constrained, meaning that SSBB will have no impact on console sales while both the 360 and PS3 will explode in sales during the surrounding weeks when GTA IV finally releases. And almost all those sales will be a sale for GTA IV, too.

it may be true that gta4 will sell consoles, but ssbb will still have longer legs and should be the only SSB on the wii, which should hit over 100mil consoles easy

 

 

One word: ONLINE. Does GTA have it?

rocketpig said: Fastrabbit09 said: rocketpig said: Okay, I'm going to have to LOL at all the Ninty fanboys who voted for SSBB twice as often as GTA IV. SSBB will do well, but it's still only on one console. GTA IV will move a lot of units for two separate consoles, at least one of which will almost assuredly get a price drop right before the game drops. SSBM sold well but it wasn't an Earth-shattering game while every GTA installment since III has sold like crazy. And for those of you touting the attach rate on SSBM to explain your vote, remember a few things... The bigger an install base gets, the more diverse its userbase becomes and attach rates drop. The GTA series had an extremely impressive attach rate despite the monstrous size of the PS2 userbase. Also, comparing the "Nintendo hardcore" demographic on the GC to the wildly diverse Wii demographic is comical at best, completely retarded at worst. by the time gta4 comes out wii will be around 50% market share, depending on gta4's final release date and many people that own a 360 also own a ps3 and viceversa, while 99% of wii owners only own one wii so ssbb will have a larger userbase to sell to...if u wanna argue that gta4 will have a higher attach rate, then go for it, but the quoted argument doesn't hold water Part of my reasoning for that is that the Wii is still supply-constrained, meaning that SSBB will have no impact on console sales while both the 360 and PS3 will explode in sales during the surrounding weeks when GTA IV finally releases. And almost all those sales will be a sale for GTA IV, too.

GTAIV will move hardware, but it won't be a serious setback to the Wii's domination. As for the rest: You do have a point, rocketpig, but I think you're overlooking the fact that the Wii will have ALREADY matched the Gamecube's lifetime install base and get much, much bigger through year-end. GTAIV, on the other hand, doesn't have the same wave to ride that GTA3 and its kin did on the PS2. I also think you underestimate how broad the appeal of Super Smash Brothers is. Also: Brawl will have online multiplayer.

I think logic is a rare commodity these days, or at the very least some of the posters are very good at hording it or concealing it. That said people should hold their lust in check, or place their fanaticism on a short leash. Realistically the answer is pretty obvious, and in fact the sales will not even be close. Unless per chance one of the games in question gets the bad word of mouth treatment.

Through the end of this year SSBB will sell between three and four million units world wide. I think some posters need to come to terms with the fact that the attach rate for the Wii is traditionally low due to the higher volume of casual, and ultra casual players within the install base. This is not the Game Cube audience or the 64 audience. This audience will not embrace this kind of play as strongly as past generations have. Expect an attach rate of under twenty percent. By the end of the consoles like look for an attach rate just under twenty five percent.

Through the end of the year GTA IV will sell combined between eight to ten million units. I would estimate six million units at least on the 360 using Halo 3 as a barometer of a must have title on the console, and I would say between two to four million on the PS3. More variable due to the cheaper console also having the game. Annually from then on I would expect sales of a million units across both platforms, and perhaps divided equally.

For the PS3 and the 360 GTA IV is a known commodity. You know that the consumers on these particular platforms are traditional, and further more this particular series seems to have only gotten more popular with age.

Realistically I think that GTA will outsell SSBB on its combined platforms. I also think that on the 360 GTA will still outperform the sales of SSBB. However on the PS3 the contest appears to be very close. Dependent on whether the PS3 can maintain stronger sales growth then last year. Eventually though GTA over the course of lifetime sales will by far exceed SSBB.

I expect GTA IV lifetime sales to exceed twenty million. Meanwhile I expect SSBB sales to be somewhere around seven million perhaps eight million if the console has a respectable tail. Thats what I think we are looking at.

Fastrabbit09 said: rocketpig said: SSBB will do well, but it's still only on one console. by the time gta4 comes out wii will be around 50% market share, depending on gta4's final release date and many people that own a 360 also own a ps3 and viceversa, while 99% of wii owners only own one wii so ssbb will have a larger userbase to sell to...if u wanna argue that gta4 will have a higher attach rate, then go for it, but the quoted argument doesn't hold water

thats not true  most own 2 systems at least. in USA its 360 and a wii and sometimes a ps3 as i own all

misterd said: MaxwellGT2000 said: Zero Hero said: GTA4. Soccer moms and grandparents are content with wii sports, wii fit, maybe another golf game and/or fishing game. The hardcore wii owners account for ~ 10% of the wii install base. I really think that SSBB may be just the next game you wonder why the majority wii install base just isn't buying these types of games. I'm not trolling, I'm sure it will be fun for you. I am interested to hear about the injuries from this game now that people have a reason to be in close quarters and lunge around.  How do you know only 10% are the hardcore owners?  Where did you get that number?  And even with soccer moms you dont account for their family playing the system, had a woman come into the store the other day looking for Wii games and talking about her teenage kids taking over her system, so if the soccer moms are playing it the rest of the family is too, which males, teenagers, and kids account for the "hardcore" gaming market.   I just want to know when SSBB became such a hard core game? I thought NIntendo only made kiddie crap?

I have never personally believed Nintendo made kiddie crap, just fun crap in kid friendly wrapping.  From the way "hardcore gamer" is being thrown around now the hardcore crowd is now people that play games that require more then 2 buttons and a D-pad to play (or motion control).  But yes Smash Brothers is a very hardcore game, when you have friends who know exactly how to time every move to get crazy combos cause they know the exact timing of each attack then yes you move into the hardcore, but the game is basic enough for a new person to gaming to be able to pick up and play.

 

Final-Fan said: As for the rest: You do have a point, rocketpig, but I think you're overlooking the fact that the Wii will have ALREADY matched the Gamecube's lifetime install base and get much, much bigger through year-end. GTAIV, on the other hand, doesn't have the same wave to ride that GTA3 and its kin did on the PS2. I also think you underestimate how broad the appeal of Super Smash Brothers is. Also: Brawl will have online multiplayer.

I'm not underestimating the SSB franchise at all, I think it's a solid franchise that will really move units with the new installment.

GTA III was one of the reasons why the PS2 moved so many damned units and VC/SA only added to that popularity. While GTA IV certainly will not have the same volumetric effect on the PS3 and 360, it will move a lot of units. Combine that with the natural "hardcore" base of the 360 and PS3 already and attach rates should be enormously high for GTA IV, possibly nearing Halo 2 percentage in the short term (until the end of 08).

Compare that to the Wii where attach rates are good but as that userbase expands, it will quickly become diluted with Wii Sports/Wii Fit type of gamers. While that is certainly good for console sales and for Nintendo itself, it doesn't exactly bode well for a more "hardcore" game like SSBB. I think SSBB will sell very well but overall, I think the draw of GTA, the availability of the 360/PS3, and the more focused userbase will lead to larger sales, though not by much.

Again, my main problem with this poll is the blatant fanboyism that lead to 70% of people voting for SSBB, not the actual argument that SSBB might outsell GTA IV. It quite possibly will, though I think GTA has the distinct advantage of demographic and brand name behind it.

I would say that at least half of Wii owners will buy Brawl at some point, maybe not launch day. Even those who bought the console in a more casual fashion probably know about SSBB and are going to pick it up eventually. You could also argue that some 75% of PS360 owners are going to pick up GTA4. (These are predictions for the Americas) In that case GTA4 will have more sales. WW, Brawl.

SSBB will be better. Why? Because it has improvements that aren't frustrating, such as GTA4's new inability to enter any car.

In sales, SSBB will also win. Why? Because a huge section of GTA3's sales on PS2 went to casuals who just want to blow stuff up. And we all know where the casuals went after deserting Sony: they went to Nintendo, where there will be no GTA4.

SSBB, is most hyped tha GTAIV, only see the threads of say SSBB