How do you know only 10% are the hardcore owners?  Where did you get that number?  And even with soccer moms you dont account for their family playing the system, had a woman come into the store the other day looking for Wii games and talking about her teenage kids taking over her system, so if the soccer moms are playing it the rest of the family is too, which males, teenagers, and kids account for the "hardcore" gaming market.

Okay, I'm going to have to LOL at all the Ninty fanboys who voted for SSBB twice as often as GTA IV.

SSBB will do well, but it's still only on one console. GTA IV will move a lot of units for two separate consoles, at least one of which will almost assuredly get a price drop right before the game drops. SSBM sold well but it wasn't an Earth-shattering game while every GTA installment since III has sold like crazy.

And for those of you touting the attach rate on SSBM to explain your vote, remember a few things... The bigger an install base gets, the more diverse its userbase becomes and attach rates drop. The GTA series had an extremely impressive attach rate despite the monstrous size of the PS2 userbase. Also, comparing the "Nintendo hardcore" demographic on the GC to the wildly diverse Wii demographic is comical at best, completely retarded at worst. 

by the end i think SSBB will outsell them bothcombined

SSBB will never outsell GTA4. thats pretty dumb. GTA is THE best selling game in past gen. It will sell better than Halo

GTA will start strong, SSBB will overtake it with longer legs

by the time gta4 comes out wii will be around 50% market share, depending on gta4's final release date

and many people that own a 360 also own a ps3 and viceversa, while 99% of wii owners only own one wii

so ssbb will have a larger userbase to sell to...if u wanna argue that gta4 will have a higher attach rate, then go for it, but the quoted argument doesn't hold water

Part of my reasoning for that is that the Wii is still supply-constrained, meaning that SSBB will have no impact on console sales while both the 360 and PS3 will explode in sales during the surrounding weeks when GTA IV finally releases. And almost all those sales will be a sale for GTA IV, too.

By that logic, GTA3 never should have been the biggest seller last gen, given that GTA2 wasn't even close the generation before.

GTA3, VC and SA sold between 11-15 million each on the PS2/XBox, which, combined, had sold around 145 million consoles. Currently the PS3/360 combine for less than 30 million copies.

SSBB sold nearly 7 million copies on a 22m user base console, which the Wii will exceed soon. 

While the proportions are not likely to stay the same (ie GTA4 will not sell 1/4 of GTA3), it is reasonable to assume that GTA4 will have a harder time reaching VC's 14mil mark, while SSBB should easily surpass 7m. While I would still say the odds favor GTA4, I would not say that it is certain by any means. 

For the record (according to several websites - if anyone has better data, please share):

Best selling console games (ignoring pack ins):

360/Wii/PS3 - Halo 3 (8m so far)

PS2/GCN/XBox/DC - Grand Theft Auto: Vice City (15m)

PS1/N64/Saturn - Mario 64 (11m)

SNES/Genesis - Donkey Kong Country/Mario Kart (8m)

NES/Sega - Super Mario 3 (18m)

I just want to know when SSBB became such a hard core game? I thought NIntendo only made kiddie crap?

That's pretty much where I stand. I think GTA IV will outsell SSBB but it will probably be close.

My main point is that I find it kinda pathetic that almost 70% of the people on this site voted SSBB and some people think it won't even be close. It shows the where the bias of most posters on this site lay.