SSBB or GTA4

[Dodece]

I think logic is a rare commodity these days, or at the very least some of the posters are very good at hording it or concealing it. That said people should hold their lust in check, or place their fanaticism on a short leash. Realistically the answer is pretty obvious, and in fact the sales will not even be close. Unless per chance one of the games in question gets the bad word of mouth treatment.

Through the end of this year SSBB will sell between three and four million units world wide. I think some posters need to come to terms with the fact that the attach rate for the Wii is traditionally low due to the higher volume of casual, and ultra casual players within the install base. This is not the Game Cube audience or the 64 audience. This audience will not embrace this kind of play as strongly as past generations have. Expect an attach rate of under twenty percent. By the end of the consoles like look for an attach rate just under twenty five percent.

Through the end of the year GTA IV will sell combined between eight to ten million units. I would estimate six million units at least on the 360 using Halo 3 as a barometer of a must have title on the console, and I would say between two to four million on the PS3. More variable due to the cheaper console also having the game. Annually from then on I would expect sales of a million units across both platforms, and perhaps divided equally.

For the PS3 and the 360 GTA IV is a known commodity. You know that the consumers on these particular platforms are traditional, and further more this particular series seems to have only gotten more popular with age.

Realistically I think that GTA will outsell SSBB on its combined platforms. I also think that on the 360 GTA will still outperform the sales of SSBB. However on the PS3 the contest appears to be very close. Dependent on whether the PS3 can maintain stronger sales growth then last year. Eventually though GTA over the course of lifetime sales will by far exceed SSBB.

I expect GTA IV lifetime sales to exceed twenty million. Meanwhile I expect SSBB sales to be somewhere around seven million perhaps eight million if the console has a respectable tail. Thats what I think we are looking at.